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Yeah. The forecast for next week is going downhill. It's hard for this area to stay pleasant for more than a week.

SE continues to win. .12 total here.

Yeah, no end in sight either. Only another 0.10" so far in September, with little precipitation expected over the next two weeks. Only "abnormally dry" though according to NOAA.

I was happy to get the PNA mismatch potential last October from the early MJO indicator back in October which was a key part of the seasonal 500 mb pattern. Then the under 4” snow last December around NYC signaled another below average snowfall season. I tend to score long range seasonal forecasts like how the batting average is regarded in baseball. All you need to have a shot at the batting title in any given year is to get a hit only around 33% of the time. So if you get at least 1 aspect of the 3 key elements including 500mb pattern, P-types and amounts with the storm track, and the temperatures correct then I will consider it a good showing from seasonal outlook.

Low of 43 here this morning.

Wanna see something even MORE fun?

Fitting since this weather is similar to our winters now.

2.05" in the stratus from the weekend.

The record ridge and drought in Canada generated strong high pressure and low dewpoints. This was followed up by the record trough over the Western Great Lakes ago. These very cold early season temperatures are actually being driven by the minimums allowing ideal early fall radiational cooling. We should continue with the comfortable early fall temperatures here right into mid-September as Canadian high pressure dominates. But much the CONUS is experiencing expanding drought conditions. So we could see a drought feedback warm up beginning to west while we enjoy the great early fall weather here. Unfortunately, the reliable models only go out 15 days. So the pattern from late September into October will depend on the pattern evolution. If we start getting more high pressure to our SW, then that drought feedback warmth could arrive here later September into October. Statistically we don’t see much 90° heat here at the warm spots like Newark that late in the season. We haven’t seen any 90° heat at these locations after September 20th since 2017 and 2019. But you never know if this will be the first 2020s year to pull it off. Especially if the winds can turn more SW. The big theme here in recent years has been record 80s warmth right into late October and early November like last year.

45° for the low here. Love this weather

10/10 out there. Only picked up 0.4" this weekend but that's enough to keep the grass growing and prevent more burnout for a couple days. Long range, CPC has us in normal to slightly above normal precip after the 15th... we'll see

Snow plows are out in NYC. Winter is coming!

Can definitely see that immediate, incredible impacts of that sensor change at FFC, which occurred on July 31, 2024. Based on this data, some locations may have cooled as much as 3.5 or 4F with the new sensors, but perhaps the aspiration was broken at the FFC site. They also changed (or are in the process of changing) the aspiration and solar radiation shields. Still even low temperatures dropped precipitously compared to ATL. June 2024 FFC: 92.9/68.2 ATL: 91.1/71.8 July 2024 FFC: 92.4F/73.0 ATL: 90.7/74.0 August 2024 FFC: 90.2/67.3 ATL: 92.0/72.3 Wow! ATL was 2.0F above 1991-2020 in August 2024, while FFC was 1.1F below 1991-2020.

It is like Ireland here. Every single storm and rain event hit hard. Should be best foliage season in many many DJT years locally. Had the lawn aerated and overseeded this morning.

EPS look consistently mild/warm but not seeing any death ridge heat either blessed

What does this have to do with this forum? Go cry in theirs. Also, all the bitching in the world doesn't matter, see NYC. It never gets fixed. If they don't care, why should we.

% normal precip…last 30 days and 90 days Water pouring out of hills in Tolland while grass spontaneously ignites here. The foliage looks like it’s 3-4 weeks ahead.

3rd coldest 9/1-9/8 in MSN this year. But things are about to change drastically, wouldn't be surprised if we end up with an above average departure at the end of the month

What a stretch upcoming.

What is so funny about this comment? It's a legitimate question/concern. Others have noticed this change as well on other weather forums: New ASOS Temperature/Dewpoint System This user noted that FFC, one of the original test sites, went from running warmer than ATL to colder: This user noted that Valentine (NE) Airport went from quite a bit warmer than his readings to about the same, if not cooler. He also notes the sudden proliferation of 100% humidity which was pretty much non-existent on the traditional sensors.

finally bagged a low in the 30s, down to 38 this morning. already up to 60 less than 3 hours later though.

So far so good with my peak season forecast…

Basically, we can take a set of numbers and break them into quarters. Just like we do with the months in a year. Interquartile is the set of numbers between Q1 and Q3, the numbers in the middle of the dataset. So if the models are putting out numbers that are very spread out and uncertain like in your example, the Interquartile Range will be high. If the models are all putting out similar numbers, the difference between Q3 and Q1 will be low, so making a temperature forecast might be easier.

Looks like its going to vary widely from site to site. DTW has only cooled about 0.1F relative to its divisional mean, while CLE has cooled about 0.6-0.7F relative to its divisional mean compared to 2024.