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  2. jewell2188
    Well I guess here starts another stretch of boring typical DMV weather lol
  3. Met1985
    Yeah that line coming in from Tennessee looks nasty.
  4. Maggie Valley Steve
    Looks like Buckethead will get the brunt first. Nasty bowing segments along the line that extends well W.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Lower midwest too. El Nino STJ has long tracking moisture storms across the lower part of the country.
  6. Wannabehippie
    Snow everywhere, or just in the east?
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's a pretty smoothed out map though. >1"/month over a 9-year period for like 50% of a region is pretty strong! If you go through year-by-year, almost every Jul-Aug has been above average in the eastern 1/2
  8. Damage In Tolland
    This is ugly https://x.com/steveoweathaguy/status/2087291143151395060?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg
  9. 1234snow
    @John1122 it is trying to make it down to your area. I wonder if there will be a transition to a training cells scenario on the western end of this line.
  10. mitchnick
    Definitely broad brushes it considering what has fallen imby, but it has me AN at least.
  11. michsnowfreak
    Summer regional rainfall seems like it would be SO difficult to average out because of the highly localized and connective nature of rainfall in most areas.
  12. michsnowfreak
    Good job on identifying and addressing your issue! Hopefully he does the same.
  13. TheDreamTraveler
    Looks like July 1936 was finally dethroned as the hottest month ever recorded in the US. July 2026 holds the record now. I'm impressed it took that long to break 1936. Almost 100 years
  14. SACRUS
    Today's Highs: BLM: 89 EWR: 88 LGA: 88 PHL: 88 TEB: 87 New Brnswck: 87 ISP: 87 JFK: 86 NYC: 85 TTN: 85 ACY: 82
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Green to neutral areas. At least relative to average. The 21-0 +1.11 monthly NAO streak means we will have to buck a strong trend though.
  16. George001
    Lots of snowfall where?
  17. 1234snow
    It has been a while since warnings have covered that large of an area. The line was moving it. It has came though Gate City/Weber City area. Wind isn’t too bad at least. I don’t feel the HRRR handled today’s earlier convection and MCS well at all.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Lots of snowfall, if the -NAO and -AO can sustain.
  19. WxUSAF
    https://twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/2087329199317012723?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA
  20. Met1985
    Severe Thunderstorm watch for Boone north.
  21. Damage In Tolland
    Well it is Augdewst
  22. Wannabehippie
    With this super El Nino, -AO, possible -NAO, what sort of weather patterns will they lead to in the US?
  23. Damage In Tolland
    Congrats on winning , life , and everything
  24. Met1985
    Yeah looks like a lot of the mountains are going to see that Dercho from up in Kentucky blow through here around 11 it looks like.
  25. Yesterday
  26. CAPE
    Well the chiggers are somewhat avoidable by staying out of high brush and the woods, although no guarantee. I don't do anything with soil this time of year, like digging/ planting anything. They become inactive once the temp gets below 60F. I wait until Fall.
  27. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^CFS, CANSIPS, and ECMWF are all showing a Winter -NAO. We haven't really had a DJFM -NAO in 14 years. We've had 21 winter months >+1.11 and 0 months <-1.11 in that time. Going for it: N. Atlantic SSTA's May-Aug so far are slightly negative. El Nino does generally support a warmer Stratosphere. Going against it: Decadal cycle is still near a peak. Descending Solar Cycle (+1-5 years after Solar Max +NAO is favored, and this last Max was a pretty high one). +QBO. I think a -AO for the Winter is more probable than -NAO, but it was only 17 years ago that the lowest NAO on record since the 1800s happened during an El Nino. I also think that seasonal models are overestimating the effects of -NAO. The Pacific is usually the stronger player, and since 2019 that has been the case at +0.25 correlation vs before.
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