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Kevin is right on the line of 2" vs 6"

There are some false rumors about the 80s on this board at time. NYC metro to a degree got unlucky but C-SNJ/LI/CT did decently well snow wise in those winters. There was just a snow hole in regards to the metro and N NJ somewhat. 88-89 was awful basically for the entire NE but there was just way more cold air minus winters like 82-83 and 88-89

I still have faith. Every model not showing snow is a bad model.

As long as I can get a covering here…it’d be a win this early. Hopefully that’s still in the cards.

Yeah. Had more warmer than avg nights. Less Frost than usual as well as was October. On that note, what a Frost this Morning !!! Looked alike a light Snowfall.

Yeah rates def not quite as good as 06z. I think I'm pretty much toast here. Winter hill might do really well still as long as we don't get a zonked NAM look.

We have a retreating high and southerly flow blasting us as the storm is coming in. Also the low is still forming in the mid levels near us and unable to wrap cold air back south in time.

Cold seems to be backing off for tonight’s system in CAD areas. See WWA hoisted for a lot of mountain/foothills areas but icing looks extremely limited now

It’s for a warm nose at 750-800 mb, hence the mixier depiction. It’s usually good at sniffing those out at this range.

This has out preformed my (very low) expectations so far here in Springfield. Roads are a mess, I am a little surprised that SGF hasnt pulled the trigger on an advisory.

Man that run is close to flattening Ray’s Davis.

Correction, Im actually 400’, but dt Frederick is 350’. There’s been a few storms where I can see snow on the top of gambrill. I have a feeling this might be one of them. Tomorrow morning should look cool, regardless.

Womder why NWS Albany hasn't hoisted Winter Storm Warnings yet... Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

At 925 it’s a smidge warmer, it looks like it’s due to perhaps a little bit less than the way of dynamics.

Wondering if there'll be a couple of swaths of blinding snow squalls associated with that arctic front Thursday afternoon.

Gfs holds

Was gonna say i was surpsied to see GFS might actually look a tick flatter through 18h

Yeah and in this setup, those extra hundred feet in elevation makes a big difference.

I'd expect more of the same here. Even with cold air around, we get warmups during the storms and then cold/dry afterwards. Winter is exposing it's cards here. Good track, cold air around, but warmup during the storm.

Gfs about the same as 6z, maybe the tiniest ever so slightly flatter heights over New England.

This is incorrect. 4 winters (40%) of the 1980s had below 20 inches of snowfall, the lowest 8.1 inches in 88/89.

I’m in the Whittier area…right at the edge of where elevation increases (and falls lol). Only 7 miles to the top of the Watershed. It’s pretty wild how much of a difference a few hundred feet can make here. You’re in a good spot for this one.

When hasn't the polar vortex recovered strength after it was weakened ?lol