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Pretty much all the models are focused on our area for the higher totals, Will have to see going forward if that holds, 18z Euro just came out

If that causes melts from an at most meager system, then those individuals expectations are way out of whack.... wait, I forgot where I am

Today, I asked Eric to address his earlier thoughts about Feb having good prospects to go against the grain of warm Niña Febs should La Niña fade early. He implied that, regardless, we’re not doing enough. I then asked him, “What do you mean that we’re not doing enough? How’s ENSO looking to you for Feb?” His answer: I would like to see a big and slow MJO event to go across the entire Warm Pool in January and I am not seeing that. These Convectively Kelvin Waves are moving us towards El Nino of course, but the westerly wind bursts from them aren’t as strong or sustained as I’d like them to be to zonally advect the warm pool eastward more quickly. Our only ticket out of this crap mid to late winter is to push the warm pool east enough to extend the pacific jet to a point where we get a +PNA/+TNH/+NAO pattern instead of a -PNA/+TNH/+NAO. That seems less likely to me than say a month or so ago given how the Warm Pool has behaved to this point @40/70 Benchmark

Warm advection precip especially with a parent low significantly separated from the overrunning can be locally unpredictable. It can be banded with distinct maxes and mins that defy typical geographical snowfall distributions. The inter- and intra-model variability supports this. As usual, this will be an interesting nowcast. With surface temperatures near or just above freezing, snow could accumulate pretty much anywhere. Can't really count anyone out for a coating to about 3". I don't think this event will reveal its character until the last moment. Hopefully when it does early Tue it appears wintry and festive.

I don't think it has much to do with his location. He has a semi-permanent feud with east coast snow weenies and he likes to savor their tears as they torch. The problem is I have followed him off an on since 2023 and he seems to be extremely knowledgeable. He dives "under the hood" into the mechanics of the synoptic scale of the atmosphere and doesn't just rip and read from the models. In 2023-24 he was down on the canonical nino pattern appearing in late Jan/Feb, and he was correct. Last year he was up on the possibilities for SE snow and he was right about that as well. Like Bob says if he knew it all he'd be rich as an energy trader, but if he is making bold claims, I would look into his basis before dismissing him off hand.

Hey, Will post the 30 day precipitation anomaly map for January 1 through February 1

I agree BUT the usual suspects will melt if they miss out ..lol

Unrealistic expectations from weenies.

1" - 3" nice little storm coming with temps in 20s for almost all, enjoy it!

for the restofus..........

Agreed. Looking forward to some mood flakes for Festivus.

Def donot see 3-6” up here lol.. 1-2” up here is prob the limit

According to JB, this is just natural and has nothing to do with increased CO2 and other greenhouse gases. I don’t buy that at all. We have increased from 370 to 420 ppm CO2 in the past 25 years. This can not be a coincidence. .

Glad I live further North or id be pulling my hair out, what's left of it.

Nice view. What town is she in?

No snow at the mother in laws but wachusett lit up

A tale of two Pits: 21" at Pit2 and 0" at Pit1 It was the best of times. It was the worst of times.

Whatever falls will melt before Christmas anyway lol

The latest from the NWS:

Thank you, I've been trying to tell my wife this for years.

Fun week for NNE/CNE on GFS.

Exactly. City folk should stop complaining. If you live close? Go there. Measure. Document it. Done.. That's what I've been saying. Why is this so hard?

Let's add in the 26th.

If it were that simple, he would have already made a billion dollars in the energy sector! Lol

We need a pinned thread for all of the posts in this forum about central park snow measurements. There’s more chatter about that than almost any other topic. And it’s the same banal banter and thats all it is at this point. Yes central park sucks at measuring snow. We agree. Move on and go touch grass... or snow. And if you want, you go can measure whatever snow there is for yourself. Write it down, come back in this thread and tell us what your findings are.