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Based purely on gut feel… upside is a wet 2” paste job NW of 95 before flipping to rain. I’ll take the stat padder while holding out hope for a last winter gasp end of feb or early march

Reggie went wild on S coast from CT to the cape. Looks like a boost there near transition line. Looks like a better s/w as modeled.

Storm is not going to cut past the lower Ohio Valley because of all the blocking up north - it's going to be a Miller B where it reforms somewhere off the Mid- Atlantic coast and all the fine details are not obvious yet more questions than answers at the moment . As for Steve he has a knack for busts in his forecast just like many others online - not that there is anything wrong with that .

Maybe I looked at too many maps the past two weeks. Look at the latest NAM highs: are lower than I thought were forecast for this week. WB 12Z 12K NAM for 4pm Tues, Wed and Th.

I had 5.5. Not sure who that is.

@CoastalWx i see 2N Weymouth at 6" on the PNS is that you? i know you said 5.5, did it change or is that someone else?

Just ignore him folks that’s all. Wow the cold over the past couple of weeks have been impressive. We look to warm up a bit finally but making the storm track more active with mix weather events and then IMO end of month a big dog comes.

That's my thinking for April. We're in for a Top 10 warmest April, with lots of 75, 80 degree days.

It's bad, for sure, but all the models have been all over the place. Unfortunately, even with a near perfect track, we're running into surface temp issues as Chuck's suggested. In the end, we're still in the same Niña regime which is killing us. The last gasp of trade winds (Niña influence) are progged to hang around thru the first day or 2 of March. If anyone is hoping for a late season miracle, my best guess would be wait until after the trade winds die. Otoh, if next weekend works out, that should now be considered a miracle too. Lol

NYC average snowfall for February is still under 10 inches - anything more is above average of course and not expected BUT not impossible

Yes. Steve D from NYNJPA weather says we’re In a lose lose situation for the weekend. Trough digs too much in southeast so it’s a southern slider or the western trough digs too much so the storm amps up and cuts. No favorable pattern for snow for mid Atlantic for a while, he says. Our hopes for an average snowfall season will have to hinge on a March SSW I believe

The models giveth and the models taketh away... I think there could still be some hope for the last week of February into March. Still early to be calling Winter at this point. That said, I'm going to enjoy the thaw. It's been a fun few months of Winter but my body needs a break. Also i'm tired of trying to entertain a 5 year old indoors.

Looks like BOX did toss that 16.2 cocorahs report for some reason. They issued a final PNS for this and didn't include it.

There’s probably a parallel universe where we’re bitching about the cold and lack of snow right now. Given the consistency of the deep BN days, we’re kind of lucky to have gotten the snow we got…SWFE on roids, some inv troughs that overperformed, some light clippers that overperformed.

Not indicating I am unhappy. Just observing the fact that days tend to start slipping away after Mid-February and before you know it it is spring lol

Down here it doesn't make much sense to get too wrapped up in pack. That's why my focus turns to big game hunting. Can we get March of 93 but track it over the BM?....is that unreasonable?

I'd choose NYC. Five coldest mornings: BOS NYC -18 1934 -15 1934 -17 1933 -13 1917 -15 1933 -8 1943 -14 1943 -7 1917 -12 1957 -7 1934 from HV: No crazy stretches of daytime low temperatures but I’ve had 17 mornings at or below zero now. Year of the radiators. Today makes 17 straight subzero mornings. Forecast has #18 tomorrow, which would tie 1982 in Fort Kent for my longest anywhere.

Two interesting videos: https://x.com/i/status/2020641229676089405 https://x.com/i/status/2020626195717714010

It’s par for the course after the 1995-1996 winter for consecutive 10”+ snowfall months to be followed by one under 10”. Very difficult to go 3 in a row in the this area. Snowy patterns have been difficult to sustain for more than a month or two around here. These are all the winters at ISP with 10”+ Decembers. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY 10”+ months bolded Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2009-2010 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 2002-2003 1.0 16.0 2.6 26.3 3.7 5.0 54.6 2003-2004 0.0 15.5 19.1 1.1 5.7 0.0 41.4 2010-2011 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 1995-1996 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 2025-2026 T 12.5 14.9 1.2 M M 28.6 1969-1970 T 12.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 T 27.0 1975-1976 T 11.0 7.8 7.5 3.9 0.0 30.2 1963-1964 T 11.0 11.7 16.0 1.0 0.0 39.7 2000-2001 0.0 10.8 9.2 8.6 10.3 T 38.9 2008-2009 T 10.4 8.9 3.3 13.6 T 36.2 1988-1989 0.0 10.4 4.4 1.2 3.0 T 19.0

same

One thing that has been unique about this winter is, we haven’t had any of those SWFE systems that drop 4 to 6 inches and then turn to rain. I don’t really miss those because they are a huge pain in the ass, but perhaps the Monday system ends up being something like that?

FYI today is Feb. 9th - premature IMO to even entertain that thought sorry ! Reminds me of all the warmsters here back in early January

We tend to plan vacations as a family wanting to explore not just a different place but a different culture. Have experienced Costa Rica and last year Eastern Europe. Mr. J and I have been throwing around visiting PR and Belize and after seeing that fun cultural halftime show has it got me wanting to go somewhere.

A few warmer days are going to be welcome. I’m probably one of the bigger cold lovers on here and even I’m sick of these Arctic mornings.

I'm above normal on the entire season so I don't know what's slipping away. If you can't be happy during this winter, time to move away no offense