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I've been curious about this for some time and had trouble discerning where a break-even is after initial purchase. I know there were subsidies involved in a lot of installations that helped but I've also heard people mention panels degrade over time and/or there are maintenance costs to factor in (panel replacement, batteries, etc). I imagine you've hit a break-even at some point during this stretch. Do you happen to know when it was and how far ahead you are?

I know my own climate very well, but I have also learned a decent amount about the east/midatlantic after being on weather boards for 2+ decades. Warm/cold/etc are always very relative, subjective terms. It absolutely will snow here in November & December. My hunch is for above avg snow in Nov & below avg in Dec, but thats just my hunch (based on strong Nino history & an odd frequency of this occurring in even non-Nino years recently). Id lean on an avg to cold November and a mild December, but even if its warm both months, the transition to winter in the Great Lakes from Oct to Nov is a sharp one, and is very apparent even in the warmest years. Meanwhile, on the east coast/midatlantic, early season snow is never a strong bet, even in a cold pattern. So in a more hostile strong Nino pattern, bad odds just got worse. So while its not impossible, dont count on much pre-Christmas snow. January-February is when the Great Lakes region is often thrust into deep winter, so you have options ranging from that to a warmer, less favorable outcome which would actually yield a good chance for dynamic, powerful wet snowstorms. This is the time of year when literally everything has to go wrong to not see much winter. Meanwhile in the east, Jan/Feb is when climo hits its sweetspot. Pair this with a time when the overall pattern becomes more wintry for much of the nation following the assumed mild December, and the tendancy/STJ in strong Ninos for strong storms, and this is when you can be on high alert for possible huge storms.

Yea, extreme anomalies throughout ENSO precludes a cold season, but also favors some variability. Just to be clear, while we should get some colder windows that will present an opportunity for significant snows, more likely during the second half, the cold periods will pale in comparison to the warm periods....so no need to bombard me with terd and weenie emojis.

Grass is growing where I'm at. I mowed last Thursday and by Sunday it looked like I didn't even mow. Of course last week I received 1.85 rain which was needed.

September is my favorite month there (outside of winter storms ofc). Days in the 60s and cool nights…lake is still warm and way less crowded with schools back in session. And thanks for the humidity POV…seems right!

Yeah, when any of the 4 ENSO regions sets or ties a new all-time high the warming potential is there. So the exact location of the new record may not be as significant as the fact that a new record is being set in one or multiple the zones. 1997-1998 ONI records were focused in the eastern regions. The 2015-2016 were located in the central and western regions. 2023-2024 had its record closer to Nino 4 in the west with a tie of the all -time Nino 4 recently set in 2015-2016. 03DEC1997 26.2 3.9 28.2 3.1 28.8 2.1 29.2 0.6 18NOV2015 23.8 2.0 28.0 2.9 29.8 3.0 30.3 1.7 29NOV2023 24.2 2.1 27.2 2.0 28.7 2.0 30.3 1.7

5 years for us now, time flies. My PWS hit 90 twice yesterday, but it gets direct afternoon sun so I would suppose 87-88 is probably closer to reality. My POV on the humidity is there are no drought conditions from the spine of the Alleghanies westward, the combination of higher soil mositure and compressional downsloping east of the mountains helps to explain why the mountains seem to feel "as humid" right now as lower elevation areas further east. Summer is still short, this will be our first weekend all season we can sit outside in the evenings without hoodies on.

84/70/89 at 930 here just outside of Laurel

Low at DTW 78 this morning. The hot, humid final day of June took the monthly departure from -0.1F to 0.4F at DTW. June was a very average month in the southern Great Lakes in the mean, with most locations finishing between -0.5F & +0.5F, however the last day added around a half degree departure for most.

USA USA USA! Can’t wait for tonight’s game.

Got it! thanks!

op ed: You know ... as impressive as this three, maybe four day heat wave is.. I'm seeing subtleties in the guidance like they are tussling with a fast atmosphere offset. Typically, fast would negatively interfere with establishing resonant feedbacks - 'fast' sends disturbances into the engine that gums up the gears so to speak. In this case, linear forcing appears to be outweighing the non-linear mechanics (addition) to end up with a ridge surplus so some resonance is established. And there is a bit of non-linear neg interference in play ... evidenced not so much in the velocity of the flow, but by the rate of emergence and decay of pattern resonant features - which is a non-linear wave function. Faster life cycle means the pattern identities just can't seem to stay in place. This is something I've noticed frequently over recent decades - the emergence and fade life cycle of patterns occurring faster. I have conjectural ideas that some of the heat of CC is being absorbed and then converted and stored in the non-linear... which is then expressed by the energy required to move larger mass fields more frequently. It takes a lot of energy to change a pattern. A locked pattern is actually lower burden on global budget. But if you have negative EPO modes wildly transitioning to +EPO ... or more so, imagine an index as large as the PNA's domain space...etc, ... it costs to change the geometry of those mass fields. It's probably a good thing this dynamic is available otherwise, Antarctica might be half its size already and NYC's skyline would be a massive mooring harbor

We finished June with temperatures for the month only slightly above normal. Our extremely hot stretch of weather begins today and will continue through the weekend. The hottest days look to be both Thursday and Friday where we will be in the upper 90's on the ridges and near or above 100 degrees in the valley locales. Shower chances increase by July 4th night and continue into Sunday and Monday. This will start to trim the extremely high temperatures and by next Tuesday we will be back to near normal with highs in the mid 80's.

We finished June with temperatures for the month only slightly above normal. Our extremely hot stretch of weather begins today and will continue through the weekend. The hottest days look to be both Thursday and Friday where we will be in the upper 90's on the ridges and near or above 100 degrees in the valley locales. Shower chances increase by July 4th night and continue into Sunday and Monday. This will start to trim the extremely high temperatures and by next Tuesday we will be back to near normal with highs in the mid 80's.

About 0.18" from the storm this morning, Only had 0.62" for the entire month of june

Gfs seems to be on its own with the amount of rain for the 4th and the coverage of showers

Took a walk along each side of the road in front of the house… Tons of poison ivy on boths sides. Noticed some last year, but it’s nuts this year and is now trying to work into my yard. Tons of ragweed starting And a 2 stalk clump of knotweed about 2ft tall They use bottom of the barrel fill along the road and let the invasives go nuts. Then they go around with chems spraying the shit a couple of years later. Maddening

0.31" Great Acoustics.

Will probably be dependent on precip and cloud debris. BDL record is 78°

Looks like 82/70 at 9am for DC

Yeah I posted this in the banter thread yesterday. Scary stuff for his age, glad he survived.

Sarcasm, right? Otherwise what an insane take. “You got heat stroke and you liked it”. Woof. Someone commented on Monday that mesos were showing a possibility of storms for today. Is that still holding true? If someone could point the direction where I could check out the info myself, that would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks. Looking forward to your update. Per the following source (AMSR2), the current Arctic ice area is now getting pretty low with it a bit lower than 2020 and 2016, ~0.5 million sq km lower than 2024, and ~0.4 million sq km lower than the 2013-24 mean. Do you know anything about the reliability of this source?

My all time high since we’ve had our house in Deep Creek is 89 (hitting 10 years this fall)..would love to avoid hitting 90. One thing I’ve noticed as @mdhokie pointed out, is how much the humidity has increased. I definitely don’t remember that the first 6-7 years we had the house.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.8 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.8 -0.2 -0.2