Jump to content

All Activity

This stream auto-updates

  1. Past hour
  2. Snark with nothing useful, thanks
  3. Nah, temps will bust low. Don’t think most of us crack 50 east of the city
  4. SN, 29/28°F, 2" so far. SPECI KLEW 221551Z AUTO 09007KT 1/2SM SN FG SCT006 OVC010 00/M02 A2990 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0000 FZRANO
  5. Snowed for a bit earlier but driveway has cleared itself already. Dropped from 35 to 34.
  6. you're enjoying it too much..act like it hurts
  7. If the new EPS is correct, it’s going to get very warm again the 1st week of April
  8. EPS is projecting a TC or possibly a pair/twin TC’s to develop within the big WWB. What happens with those could be very important in terms of how strong this El Niño gets down the road…..
  9. very chilly this morning i was out in my full winter gear
  10. I just came along to mention the same exact thing. Seems to me that this one may produce better than Monday did.
  11. Today
  12. Bring it. Screens in the door, warmer temps. I'm ready for it. Plus it'll help with my partner healing from her knee replacement surgery.
  13. Decent rates. All sn, anout 0.5". 29f Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
  14. Rain showers moved through last night. Snowpack dwindling quickly. Although highs today will be around freezing so not so much today.
  15. Mike, I expect a tornado watch or severe thunderstorm watches to be issued by 3pm in our area. Unlike last weeks storm event, the sun will be coming out in the next few hours based on the satellites imagery. The chances of severe weather will double when this happens with the unstabilized air mass in place. I would expect many severe t- storm warnings this evening becuase of it. Its already sunny near Harrisburg. Not a good sign. This forum will be lighting up later this evening with the severe weather reports. I see Hagerstown MD has a high in the low 80's. Just prime for tornado formation too.
  16. It’s wild that 2 months ago we were tracking a snowcrete storm and an anomalous stretch of cold that left mounds of snow and local lakes frozen to the point that you could play ice hockey on them. That was fun and interesting meteorologically, but needless to say I prefer this weather. Screen door is open, birds are chirping, and March Madness is ramping up.
  17. Sun has been out now for a half hour. We'll see if it helps destabilize the atmosphere.
  18. March 22 1991: A historic ice storm begins during the afternoon and ends as heavy, wet snow on the 23rd. This event coated the city of Duluth with as much as 6 inches of ice. The 850-foot WDIO TV tower was toppled. 4 million pine trees were damaged or destroyed with the heaviest damage at G.C. Andrews State Forest near Moose Lake in Pine County. NOTE: That makes 2 historic events in my area in 1991 with the other being the "Halloween Blizzard", but I was still in the Army when this happened. 1952: A snowstorm dumps 13.2 inches on the Twin Cities. For Sunday, March 22, 2026 1920 - A spectacular display of the Northern Lights was visible as far south as Bradenton FL, El Paso TX, and Fresno CA. At Detroit MI, the display was described so brilliant as to blot out all stars below first magnitude. (22nd-23rd) (The Weather Channel) 1936 - A great flood crested on rivers from Ohio to Maine. The flood claimed 107 lives and caused 270 million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum) 1954 - Six to ten inch rains caused the Chicago River to overflow its banks. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - An intense storm produced heavy snow in the southern and central Rockies, and high winds from southern California to West Texas. Wolf Creek Pass CO received 24 inches of snow, and winds gusted to 69 mph at Ruidoso NM. Blizzard conditions were reported in eastern Colorado. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Rain and high winds battered the Northern Pacific Coast Region, with wind gusts to 78 mph at Ocean Shores WA. The high winds uprooted trees and down power lines. Ten cities in the northeastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. Eight cities in the central U.S. reported record highs. Southerly winds gusting to 60 mph helped push the mercury at Ottumwa IA to a record warm reading of 83 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Six cities in the Great Lakes Region, and three in southern Texas, reported new record low temperatures for the date, including Alpena MI with a reading of 9 above zero, and Brownsville TX with a reading of 38 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - A surge of arctic air kept temperatures in the teens and 20s during the day in the north central U.S., and heavy snow fell over parts of Montana. Record warmth was reported in the western U.S.,and in Alaska. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 94 degrees, and the town of Barrow, located along the arctic coast of Alaska, reported a record high of 20 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
  19. Yup…all pure snow now here too. Probably 3/4sm -SN
  20. It’s already started. https://www.denverpost.com/2026/03/21/24-fire-chama-canyon-mandatory-evacuation/
  21. I need to change my screen name since I’m moving out of Prince Frederick, but it says I can only change it once every 30,000 days. Can anyone help me?
  22. As was the case last year when Phoenix reached an August monthly record high of 118°, an ignorant handful are attempting to dismiss the magnitude of the ongoing unprecedented March heatwave. In this case, the effort is to transform what was very likely a localized heat event in southern California due to possible offshore winds into an epic regionwide heat event that surpassed the ongoing heat event that has toppled March and April records in many locations in the West. The above post also applies projection, accusing the news media, of not doing "much digging." In fact, the post demonstrates dismal research skills. The question concerns whether Phoenix ever reached 112° in March during 1879. That heatwave was likely referenced, because Phoenix's daily records go back to August 1895. Thus, the underlying assumption was that one could not credibly question the claim. That's not true. Several approaches apply. 1) Is there any credible data for Phoenix from March 1879? Yes. Monthly Weather Review published monthly maximum and minimum temperatures for select locations. Below is the Monthly Weather Review report for March 1879. I highlighted Phoenix and Tucson, as one can make a comparison to the current heatwave. The monthly high temperatures for Phoenix and Tucson during the current heatwave are 105° and 102° respectively, vs. the 94° and 90° in March 1879. 2) If there were no credible data (not the case here), are there any reliable records from this period in the relevant area? Yes. Yuma's climate record goes back to January 1878. Yuma's monthly maximum temperature for March 1879 was 100° on March 29, 1879. Yuma's highs are typically above those of Phoenix. For example in the current heatwave, Yuma had a peak high of 109° vs. Phoenix's 105°. One could also construct a regression equation to estimate Phoenix's high based on Yuma's data. Since one is dealing with pre-urban Phoenix, I chose the earliest 30-year period of each site's overlapping record (March 1896-March 1935). The regression equation was (0.908 *Yuma's Maximum) +3.152. The standard error was 3.33°. The coefficient of determination was 0.833. So, what happens when one calculates the estimated highs for Phoenix based on the Yuma's March 3 high of 81° and its March 29 high of 100°. The end result is an expected high of 77° (76.7°) on March 3 and a high of 94° (94.0°) on March 29. The statistical data reveal that there was virtually no chance that Phoenix was 112° during March 1879. In fact, the statistical data matches the actual monthly high. Major Findings: Note: Actual data is the Monthly Weather Review monthly maximum temperatures for Phoenix and Tucson and daily data from Yuma's climate record. What happened? More than likely Martz was using data from a thermometer that was exposed to direct sunshine. Amateurs accept such data at face value. They have little understanding of issues that could compromise the data or little understanding about conducting research. Those with motivated reasoning embrace such data when it confirms their biases. Researchers ask questions concerning whether reliable data exists for the specific location, whether reliable data exists for nearby locations, etc. If reliable data is present for nearby locations, but not the specific location, they construct models based on the relationship of those nearby locations and the specific location in question. Afterward, they run those models and make estimates. I used statistical modeling just to illustrate how such models can be quite accurate. There was actual data (Monthly Weather Review). Overall Conclusion: The March 2026 heatwave is the most severe heatwave Phoenix has experienced in the period where records exist (even prior to the daily period of record that begins in August 1895). There has been no remotely comparable past March heat event to the ongoing one affecting Phoenix and the Southwest.
  23. 27.5F Light to moderate snow. Good snow growth. Most of the precip in the last hour has been a mix of sleet and with some snow. It has switched now to all snow. Vis about 3/4"
  1. Load more activity
×
×
  • Create New...