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That is what usually say... The big flakes are right near the change over line.

From another board on the latest PGH NWS discussion "I believe they are wrong but they are thinking the warm nose cuts further north through West Virginia. I think many mets (outside of content now) are underestimating the QPF that's going to come north. Part of it is that you really don't want to bust by predicting too high because you've gotten the masses in a frenzy, but I also feel that what has been shown this year is that you need to add 10-20% to the performance of the system. Maybe the warm nose does cut in, but I'll take my chances and say that that low doesn't hang on as long."

GFS is running.. already a tick south

Sorry in all seriousness you’re right a clear warm tongue there shown on the Nam it’s really good on picking those features up. Frustrating!

Playing Weather Model Roulette with no odd or even or black or red

Icon continues to be a massive event here. Looks like it ticked back up from 12z ~1.5” qpf for most of eastern ma

Would be puking snow into sleet in a matter of seconds for us in Annapolis

pike's peak was a pimple back then.....

There are plenty of valid arguments against the NAM, but making that point by showing changes across cycles of an forecast of what the lowest level radar reflectivity will look like at one particular moment, and then comparing that to a 6h-averaged precip rate from a different model doesn't make your case.

Reggie is like less than 1” qpf, which isn’t great

reggie looks great if we can get the real outcome 25 miles south of Reggie's solution, everyone in ny and this forum would be golden

yeah, must be some concerns with the nam looking like that. yikes. it's like 6-8 hours of snow to mix/rain S coast

Might as well throw of Cranky/ contentwxguy out against the wall too, and see if anything sticks: Since he originally posted a gif, here is one showing the wavebreak he drew in

cnj. raritan river, rutgers area.

Correct again.

it's that "line". Have been listening to Accuwx this afternoon as they slowly drop the totals.

NAM is no good up here hahaha I mean snow is snow but oooof

NAM RETIREMENT PARTY

The Canadian models are the least impressive.

Dont like the Nam

Yeah, once the power goes out and all you can hear are limbs and branches cracking and falling all around, you know you’re in trouble

Those are some crazy snowfall rates at 11am Sunday on the RGEM.

rgem keeps everyone snow from Bronx and north! i think the actual result will be Staten Island and North!

All the way out to reading?

GFS on deck and running