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0z ICON goes from drought to floods

You're thinking of the October 2011 event. Highly elevation dependent snow event for a good chunk of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. The rest of the winter was total garbage as you said.

I’m cool with that. Op would just need to change the title.

For the pumpkin 0Z UK: similar to 12Z with the recurve NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.2N 53.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2025 108 15.2N 53.0W 1009 36 0000UTC 09.10.2025 120 17.2N 56.5W 1010 32 1200UTC 09.10.2025 132 19.0N 59.6W 1010 30 0000UTC 10.10.2025 144 20.1N 61.4W 1010 26 1200UTC 10.10.2025 156 21.4N 62.9W 1010 29 0000UTC 11.10.2025 168 23.2N 63.8W 1009 27

The UKMET (2nd run in a row) has the Bahamas lemon become a TC: The 0Z UKMET has itbecome a TD at 168, when it is in the NW Bahamas: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 26.1N 77.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 11.10.2025 168 26.1N 77.8W 1007 33

Would it be possible, for continuity purposes, to incorporate it in the “two lemon” thread since most of the posts, including model output, are for the tropical ATL wave?

I think the homes there are built to handle it.

if I remember correctly - we had a Halloween snow in the NYC area last decade (the Army football game at West Point that day was a winter wonderland - and Central Park was just absolutely filled with downed branches after) - and that led to a winter with virtually no snow.

First 30's this morning...10 days ahead of last year. Looks warm coming up the next few days then off to Sacramento next week to get pretty much the exact same weather.

Low 39, high 72 here. Perfect day.

Thinking the tropical Atlantic wave could be thread worthy tomorrow. Signal for it continues to be robust.

You are 100% correct. The initial January rug pull and the Feb heart breaker kept.us from greatness. If both we like 5"-9" storms then we wouldve been golden.

I would bet on it! Extremely warm Pacific Waters Record Breaking actually, Record Breaking Gul of Mexico Water Temps for September and October all time, and a toasty southwestern Atlantic we are pretty screwed east of the Appalachians warm air flooding in all directions.

87 both yesterday and today at MSP. Temps actually underperformed a bit today versus guidance. Tomorrow is our best shot at an October 90 with blast furnace winds from the south.

Highs: EWR: 75 TEB: 74 New Brnswck: 74 LGA: 72 PHL: 72 TTN: 72 BLM: 72 ISP: 71 NYC: 71 ACY: 70 JFK: 69

I'm craving a good early season coastal storm. Give me 2.5" of wind driven 43 degrees rain Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Still looks fairly close. Both the blend with and without 2007 are decent US temp profile matches for Sept 2025.

Guess so. I dont consider it chilly until at least in the 40s or 50s. This morning was chilly here and 45. 67 is pleasant

Hahaha, I haven't had signatures turned on in like 10 years, I totally forgot I had it

Relative to the 75 degree average high

I kind of have that feeling as well. The old rubber band. October is a notoriously dry month anyway. Think I'm going to make a push to sell all my wood by the end of the month. No sense in loading trucks in the rain.

Well, to be fair, he's right that a warm October doesn't necessarily mean a warm winter in the east. October 2011 was cold, while October 2010, 2013, 2014 were above average. November is more correlated in my understanding.

Look at this place, at least 2 inches snow - Its the Real Mc Coy https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/mccoy-station

I grew up in Italy. It’s a surprisingly big country from a climate perspective. Right now you could be making snow angels in Courmayeur or hanging on the beach in Tropea, so the climate really depends on where you’re going!