All Activity

Good Tuesday morning... CoCoRaHs maps attached. Depending on how extensive there SVR storm rainfall this afternoon I95 northwestward, I expect much of what was outlooked last week for qpf to verify. Next one Thu night-Friday might need a thread due to antecedent conditions. Still waiting a day to see what this afternoon-evening yields. Click for clarity if you're interested. Heading for spot 8" in the far northern part of the forum.

I use a fertilizer service. They came yesterday to put down Dimension. They're the best on the South Shore, waiting list to get on as a customer. I can't believe how late they put down preemergent every year but it works. I know a lot of other people put it down almost a month earlier.

Eastern PA just upgraded to a slight risk. Hopefully I can see one good storm because I’m about to leave for my yearly storm chasing vacation tomorrow and the pattern looks abysmal for at least the first half of it.

This is looking to verifiy as the AO is dropping. Saturday looks amazing !!! A high of 71, low dew points with continued nice weather into early next week. Signs are indicating a more humid air mass moving into the Mid-Atlantic region by mid May.

I think 1977 is exaggerated or something. It was the second coldest on record at Pittsburgh, behind only 1976.

Frustrating doesn’t seem a strong enough word. Hang in there.

Going to tough to break those inflated numbers from the HO-83 era. Big warm bias at the first order sites.

I remeber that heatwave vividly...I was 14. The irony that it preceded the most severe east coast winter on record...

Next week looks very nice

absolutely agree. Forecast models have continually failed with wind speed and direction since last year. The LR and even the SR computer models need to be calibrated to not just look at temps and precip atmospheric profiles and soundings but should consider the most critical feature- the role of surface topography and overall natural physical geography of our area. For example when a SE to S direction fetch of wind is prevalent for hours or days, the models should compare the geography of the area and bias should be added for chances of higher precip values(especially in training t-storms or froneneis for snowfall predictions ) in certain regions of the entire forecast area for MT Holly. The same goes with a direct east wind in which literally prevents t storms from from the west to cross over the Blue Mts. Physical Geography features plays a vital part in local forecasting for our area and atmospheric modeling needs to be vastly improved to include and or be more accurately biased when using pin point forecasting, especially with wind direction speed for upsloping and downsloping of the mountain ranges and deeper valleys. Simplistic terms- need a better algorithm for physical geography features rather than just using transportation networks to identify different forecasts for different aras. Thats why Macungie to Huffs Church area are constantly having inaccurate forecasting for either high or low temps and or precip values and types because the pin-point forecast do not include the topography for S Mtn range as a dividing line for precip or for different forecasts. Everything is now based on I-78, I-80 and PA turnpike transportation areas when formulating and discussing the local forecasts. IMHO, MT Holly /NOAA needs to reconsider relying more on physical geography/topography when discussing LV forecasts and not just referring to major transportation networks. FWIW, transportation networks literally bore through local mountain ranges by tunnels or by steep climbing lanes and built to go in different directions. I -78 is a perfect example of how dividing forecast areas is incorrect as it goes from SW to NE and then goes directly E to West. It literally bisects the S Mt Range in the heart of the LV. The NE turnpike is a N to S directional road which is usually only brought into the picture on types of winter precip or from storms along the coast--- yet both of these highways go through the heart of the LV.. Hopefully you see the problem of using transportation networks as delimiting line for producing local forecasts in the LV. Best examples of my reasoning- how many times have you personally gone through the Lehigh Tunnel and on one side it is snowing and the other side it is clear? How many times have you gone on RT 29/Rt 100 through Shimerville or Huffs Church and it has 2 in of snow on the ground but you get to the Macungie and Emmaus and or East Greenville and it is raining? Physical Geography plays a vital part in weather forecasting and personally believe not enough attention has been given to this fact based on our vast local regional forecasting area that MT Holly must cover. This is not the fault of the MT Holly staff at all but federal govt decisions made back in the early 90's to do away with the Allentown weather forecast office at LVIA. This was a huge mistake and I was against this change but it was a lost cause. The politicians simply did not care or understand the role of physical geography has on the the LV . That is why I am so outspoken at times about the LV. The "fall Line"" basically stops at S MT range and any thing north of that that is also in a valley which has very unique weather forecasting difficulties such as extreme diurnal and nocturnal temp ranges from the deeper valleys especially with upsloping and downsloping conditions in major storm events including wind storms, fog, freezing rain and even snow accumulations. LV is unique.

Pretty interesting distribution. I know I’ve been sucker holed the entire event but I’m thinking I should get a stratus. I’m running lower than all surrounding stations. It is most pronounced during heavier events.

Another cold morning of 39 degrees.

The one for PHL is much harder to break. If I remember correctly, the record HI was set three days after my 7th birthday, on 7/15/1995. The high that day was 103, and I believe the HI was 129 and the dewpoint was 82 (which was even higher than the low of 81 that day). That day was just the perfect storm of the heat and humidity coming together. I can't see it ever being broken. We'll either need a very humid 101/102 degree day or a day when the thermometer reaches 108, which is 2 higher than the all-time PHL record (like it did in Newark in 2011).

Up and down - I have some good days and then some relapses. More testing on Thursday and then I'm seeing a heart specialist next week. My heart goes through spells where it is on overdrive...early this morning I was awakened out of a deep sleep with rapid heartbeat. It's better now. All of this is so frustrating.

Here we go again. What can you do when all the models say you'll get 1"+, 12 hours before the event. Gonna be a long fire season. Forecast for Sunday: Rain late. Measured precip: zero. Forecast for Monday: Rain late. Measured precip: zero. Today the closest precip is about 70 miles south.

No rain in Maytown in 49 hours - this map is overdone for my area but I guess gives a decent idea of what's happening:

Incredible. I got .02” overnight.

Event is 1.66” Day currently at .34” Month is currently 2.84" Had to run my oldest to a film set this morning and there was some low lying fog/mist in the neighborhood.

1.3" since Saturday.

Downpour now. Won't last long but it's all adding up

Ya for you guys out East for sure.. Still a solid 2-5" in these parts since Midnight Monday..

Darn. I was hoping you had a model that didn’t show a coastal storm ruining Saturday.

Oh sorry haha. I meant last weekend.

Don’t really see big heat either. Bit with that cutoff to our south next week.

This coming weekend?!?