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  2. Ginx snewx
    Shit weather incoming. Damn it. Hopefully doesn't rain all weekend.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    It seems to me like we are establishing a modest cool ENSO baseline of sorts due to the increased warmth pooling the western Pacific. however, for that same reason the frequency of powerful El Nino events is also increasing.....ie more frequent La Nina, but weaker...less frequent El Nino, but more powerful ones.
  4. frd
    A refresher on the way.
  5. Stormpc
    I've had lots of rain in Currituck NC the past few weeks. Mowed yesterday afternoon but ground still saturated. However, it doesn't take much for my particular location to stay wet for a long time since I'm only about 4 ft above sea level. Looking at another soaking the next 3 days.
  6. A-L-E-K
    hi-res baby canuck been having a summer
  7. A-L-E-K
    secret on our wonderful region very much out these days
  8. Maestrobjwa
    And here I eas thinking we were going the opposite way with the perpetual nina we've had...I mean one double nina and one triple dip in the last 6 years has just been dumb, lol
  9. The Dude
    Agreed. Fantastic AFD. The team at LWX is top notch.
  10. Maestrobjwa
    And Christmas 1965: 69hi Notice what happened later in the winter after the three Christmases we hit 69 or 70...lol Big blizzard! So maybe that'll be the tell this year...69-70 or above on Christmas day--we snow later 60 or below? No go...while I don't like warm Christmases I will happily take one in exchange!
  11. ValpoVike
    Are you here on vacation? I live just outside of Estes Park, and Trail Ridge Road is really special. For an added experience, you can go up a one way road (Old Fall River Road) that exits at the Alpine Visitor Center at the top. You then take TRR back down. I have seen snow falling at the top in both July and August many times. Not much but enough to remind you just how high up you are.
  12. Brian5671
    same ol pattern. Hoping it misses here...we are waterlogged
  13. Chadzachadam
    another case where strong storms are possible in the evening but we get some rain early in the day. wonder if we fail the same way as we have earlier this summer, with too much going on and not enough instability left by the time the storms are expected
  14. Maggie Valley Steve
    Looks like an early taste of Fall will arrive this weekend extending into early next. My point and click forecast is showing low to mid 50's for morning lows!
  15. Jackstraw
    Lets see how the models do over the next 10 days precip wise. The mean average for MBY last Sunday was .5 inches, I received over 2in within 72 hours. To be honest, the Canuk and Baby Canuk did the best with last week and this week in the medium to long range. It has me around 1.5in thru 10 days while the others just a spittle. If it keeps up I'm riding it into March in mby lol
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Given the tornado risk east of I-95, this is justified. I could see a tornado watch going up east of here.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's also possible to get too extreme in the other direction as far CC goes, and this isn't a slight at John..as I discussed last spring, I was actually guilty of that last winter and it ultimately served to tarnish what was an otherwise absolutely exemplary seasonal effort. It's crucial to find and maintain that balance between the synthesis of lessons learned to inform future efforts, while also appreciating that each individual season possesses important differences. I'm still trying to find my proverbial footing in that regard.
  18. KakashiHatake2000
    Spc has day 1 outlook a marginal risk out for south of i40 for west middle and east tn also for the majorityish of the Deep South for 5 percent hail in southwest tn nw Alabama north Mississippi and also 5 percent wind https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html .
  19. Frankpc
    No precipitation that was measurable this week. Still at 1" MTD for August. Drought remains at D1
  20. BlizzardNole
    I was surprised yesterday evening when my P&C forecast had 1-2 inches for tonight! Now it's a more typical quarter to half inch. Sun is coming out and it's a muggy 83/76. Hoping for a flush hit later but won't be surprised if it's NE Maryland pummeled again
  21. Mikeymac5306
    Unless the sun comes out and bakes this afternoon I don't see it.
  22. olafminesaw
    If you are feeling you have gotten unlucky in over the last few weeks with daily storms missing your location, just know that the footprint of these storms has been relatively small and most areas have been drier than normal across the area with a few lucky winners
  23. MANDA
    WPC discussion heavy rainfall potential: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
  24. weathermedic
    From OKX AFD: While still low confidence, given high shear and little instability, severe thunderstorms for northeast NJ, NYC and western Long Island can not be completely ruled out. This would be mainly an isolated damaging wind gust threat, but given decent low level curvature in model soundings an isolated tornado is also possible.
  25. LakePaste25
    It already feels like we’re heading that direction on a very small scale. The weak La Nina’s we had the last 2 years have exhibited extended Modoki-like patterns at least prior to February.
  26. neverSnowsLCSC
    Yep, been in the high 90s and low 100s and unlike our usual 100s, it actually features higher dew points than usual. I've seen low to mid 80s on a lot of the local weather stations. 120+ heat indices. Insane. It's ungodly hot.
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