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There have been huge gaps in terms of weather balloon coverage - basically the entire mountain west lacked coverage for the 12z runs today. This is obviously impacting model forecasts at this point.

One key characteristic of an east based event is the thermocline has an even or even slightly downward slope from W to E which is what tends to shut down MC convection. Still sloping the other way although you can see may have turned the corner out near 120E. We will see if this propagates across or not. Even if this is east based, I am going to say the same thing which is mostly above normal winter with windows of opportunity for a KU event.

New Years eve was a historic ice storm in West and Cen Tn,but that was a nuetral ENSO i believe ,also75-76 was basically NINA as well,just saying

It's been that way for like a year now. If they haven't caught on by now I don't think there's any hope. Every one of the CPC lookahead precip charts shows above normal precip over the entire area yet their drought map shows that drought "persists" (doesn't "remain but improve"). They're covered no matter what happens I guess.

I am willing to bet @snowman19 $100 we see a NESIS level storm on the east coast during the coming season....should be "easy" money for you, right? 'Cmon....I'll hook you up-

This is 105 hours away ... above 80 percentile confidence for a heat wave in general, and here... we're banging 2-meter temperatures like this: Granted, the GFS tends to over mix but... I dunno in the case. Brian, any opinion? From what I am seeing ... the synoptic parametric constraints actually support something extraordinary here. Sorry if that "hyperbole" offends a few self appointed rhetoric police, but it is unfortunately for those officers objectively true. +23-25c 850 W to WNW light d-slope oriented compression flow type < 50% RH at typical ceiling sigma levels during the 12z to 21z interval(s), Wed and Thurs We will have 0 problem mixing probably to the 825 mb level for that matter... A the pure adiabat from a 25c 850 is ~ 40c at 1000mb. 23c is 38 and a half. And these are not continuing the curve into the 2-m right slope where is going to be warmer in that sfc contact layer.

What an f'n miserable day. I haven't felt good, physically or mentally, for the past 6 months, and needed a nice day out. Instead mother nature, or God, or whomever, doubled down and just made things worse. I just can't seem to win anymore...

I think you need to keep an open-mind, as I tried to tell you last year at this time when you kept preaching about "canonical-front loaded La Niña". We all make mistakes, as lord knows I have (see 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2023), but the hope is that each mistake pries the mind open a little more and causes us to be more exhaustive in our approach, and less dismissive and derogatory towards alternative points of view. Latest anomalies from east (1.2) to west (4) 2026 17JUN2026 26.1 3.0 28.5 1.9 29.3 1.7 30.2 1.3 2023 14JUN2023 25.9 2.7 27.8 1.2 28.6 0.9 29.5 0.6 2015 17JUN2015 25.1 2.0 28.0 1.5 28.7 1.1 29.7 0.8 1997 18JUN1997 25.8 2.7 27.8 1.3 28.5 0.9 29.0 0.1 Sure looks basin-wide to me, and is forecast to remain as such.

Gfs 100+ Thursday! Let's get those heat indexes through the roof!

This is a PAC004 Lower Susquehanna analog monitor using 133 years of data. The analogs split into two camps: recovery years, where a real July/August rain break arrived, and grind years, where the pattern stayed dry enough that small rains failed to reset the soil. Recovery camp: 1898, 1900, 1921, 1934, 2010, 2024. Grind camp: 1913, 1944, 1964, 1966, 1999. The 2026 line starts inside the recovery envelope, but by July 12 it peels toward the dry edge, about -1.0σ from recovery and past the grind mean. The key window is July 7–20. Around 73% of analogs had their first half-inch rain by July 20. So this is not a locked-in drought verdict yet, but the current track is leaning grind unless we get a meaningful half-inch-plus rain event by mid-July. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Forecasters need to catch on that rain events are not being realized. It’s called pattern recognition. Friday afternoon was forecasted as a 90% Rainer into and thru Saturday and so far barely more than Zero

Seems like the only thing that verifies in the long range nowadays is a heat wave...

" Heat Wave Days" vs. Temperature anomalies broken out by seasons. Trend lines are similar- rising steadily as a whole.

Aren't all the nino regions currently above the .5 threshold?

GFS was ticket warmer even (12z) in the complexion of that

The drought makes triple digits quite likely this time

There were a very good amount of flood reports in S-SETX last week with significant river, creek, and even reservoir rises noted over much of the coastal/southern region. The mid - upper coast again, got walloped with another several or more inches (like in late May). Bringing the 30-day rainfall total this week up near 2 feet now in some spots.

Waiter waiter one dover screw job please!

That's not how it went down. Nothing here about a weenie. You got annoyed(bent out of shape) because you said something ridiculous and I called you out. IDGAF about an emote. You do the weenie thing constantly though, because- you butthurt boy. Carry on being a shit poster.

Thanks jaxjagman .

We also have a marginal slight and moderate risk for excessive rainfall as well majority of tn with moderate in Ky and also nosing in north east middle tn .

...Mid-South/Tennessee/southern Kentucky to North Carolina... Multiple MCVs, including across far south-central Missouri and southeast Kansas at midday, will influence the region as they progress east-southward generally toward Kentucky and Tennessee. Related flow enhancement is evident in regional WSR-88d VWP data, and particularly in the 12z Lamont, OK observed sounding (40+ kt 4-9km AGL). See Mesoscale Discussion 1346 for additional short-term details. These MCVs will influence and semi-focus thunderstorm development within a moist and increasingly unstable boundary layer from the southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas border vicinity into Kentucky and Tennessee. This includes the possibility of some supercells and well-organized clusters in the presence of 35-40 kt effective shear. Pockets of wind damage will be the most common risk, but some tornado potential will exist as well. Additional severe storms capable of wind damage are also expected farther eastward into the Carolinas this afternoon through around mid-evening.

#MeToo

Just upgraded to slight with 2% to 5% non hatched tornado risk and 5% to 15% damaging wind risk no hail threat .

No, it’s not basin-wide like 2015. Since the biggest player this winter, by far and away is going to be a record-breaking super El Niño, 2009-10 doesn’t match, not one iota. This Nino is going to be a completely overwhelming signal that will trump anything else in the atmosphere or the rest of the oceans. It’s not an analog, not even close. We disagree. This is going to be a very easy winter to predict, there’s nothing hard or challenging about it, not at all. Easiest one in years. And I don’t agree at all with your assessment that this El Nino developing like 2015-16. This one is very, very clearly east-based and it’s going to stay that way. We can split atoms all we want and say it’s “hybrid”, “basin-wide”, “migrating Modoki”, “in betweener” or whatever other adjectives we can come up with and it’s not going to change that fact. It’s been abundantly clear for a month now that this is easily going to be the strongest super El Niño since 1950, at the very least, more likely the strongest one of all time, both in RONI and ONI