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GFS still shows a nice event for NC/VA border and mountains

It got down to 28 here

We had the SSW (barely) a few weeks ago which threw the models going warm for a loop. Now we have another Stratosphere warming, though not a technical SSW with negative winds, coming around the 15th per attachment. I think we'll need to wait until after the 20th-25th to see how that effects the AO/NAO.

34° feels like 60°

100%.

Definitely agree with that. Plus, December 2023 was warm all the way through. Kind of like 2015 and 2021. All of those years had a regression to the mean in January, with snow and near normal temperature departures. This year we have a cold December so far. We just need a snowfall, or otherwise, we might have a similar situation to December 2022.

While still colder than normal for early December it will still be about the best day this week to start or finish (in my case) putting up your Christmas decorations. Highs today will be well into the 30's but still at least 5 degrees below average. We again turn sharply colder tomorrow with the passage of an arctic front late tonight. Temperatures both tomorrow and Tuesday will remain below freezing. Tomorrow night looks to be our coldest night so far this early winter season with low temperatures not too far from 10 degrees. We moderate to closer to normal on Wednesday with rain shower chances increasing and then by Thursday night into Friday may see chances for some snow in at least parts of the area. We again turn very cold by next weekend.

I understand it's the CFS on tropical tidbits, but this is the 1st time it's shown below normal anomalies every week for the next 6. Doesn't appear like this cold is going anywhere soon. Just need the cold centered west of us if we want anything significant. Need the NAO to go slightly negative if you're looking for anything like '13-'14, otherwise it's a repeat of last year but with the snow centered ~3 hundred miles north and about a month earlier..

While still colder than normal for early December it will still be about the best day this week to start or finish (in my case) putting up your Christmas decorations. Highs today will be well into the 30's but still at least 5 degrees below average. We again turn sharply colder tomorrow with the passage of an arctic front late tonight. Temperatures both tomorrow and Tuesday will remain below freezing. Tomorrow night looks to be our coldest night so far this early winter season with low temperatures not too far from 10 degrees. We moderate to closer to normal on Wednesday with rain shower chances increasing and then by Thursday night into Friday may see chances for some snow in at least parts of the area. We again turn very cold by next weekend.

I created a new thread for tomorrow’s wintry event in mainly NC/VA:

I created this for the Monday (12/8) wintry threat for mainly NC and VA so as to leave the longer term for the main Dec thread. @buckeyefan1please pin this. Thank you.

Yes. If we are going to have the negative fantasies, then we should pair them with the positive fantasies.

LR ensembles have done poorly with the AO/NAO since the beginning of November. The GEFS 7 day progs are usually pretty darn close to reality but the last 2 sharp drops werent modeled well and the recent one was totally missed. This is the primary reason that LR "warmups" havent materialized. Right now ens seem to agree on a flip positive for both the AO and NAO. That would support a warming trend into mid month. My gut says there will be a relax but how much and for how long is hard to get a handle on given recent trends. My guess is blocking will redevelop before the end of the month so the warm period won't have legs if it happens. Personally, I'm leaning towards blocking coming back and another period of decent wintry weather before we close out the month. Fits the pattern personality we've been seeing so far.

I mean 384 hrs/16 days out…it’s fantasy/clown, but ya, thats a stout Hi pressure to the north there, 1035mb.

The 12z icon has increased totals as well. A degree or two will make a lot of difference with this event. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Been a minute since I’ve seen my outdoor furniture like this

Regarding the Januaries overall in the NE US following the last 11 -ENSO -PNA Decembers, only 2 were mild (2017 and 2023) while 3 were within a few degrees of normal and 6 were cold (1984, 1985, 2009, 2011, 2014, and 2022). So, 3 times as many mild were cold. *Edited for correction: 6 Jans were cold, not just 5.

Was just about to make a post regarding that. Yes, It's exactly for that reason that the anomaly charts should always be used and the reason they are the ones always referenced. For instance, you could take a year such as 2009-10. Very well known as a modoki el nino year. Well if you look at the raw velocity potential, one could say strong forcing stuck at the MC. While the anomalies will paint a different picture entirely.

I saw that. Hopefully the gfs comes north some. I want to visit black water refuge tomorrow but I need that snow to come north.

Fully agree - as currently forecats that looks to be some moderation by the 18th, but plenty of cold to the north as mentioned.

Unimpressive here. Got down to 31.6, so it wasn’t likely enough to matter.

Ha slow progress towards later sunsets we're at 4:29 now - for those who enjoy a bit more light, anyways.

I complain about my area quite a bit but idk if anyone has been in the screw zone across the entirety of the southeast moreso than Charlotte. Truly feel bad for snow lovers in that area. Extra salt in the wound that Raleigh is about to score again.

No a majority of clouds , can start to see some snow cover in the mt's

Every met on Twitter keeps preaching about this pattern and to ignore models etc… yea uh… there isn’t jack shit to track… seems hard to ignore how boring the rest of the month looks