All Activity

Yes

Temperature pattern heading into late August looks close to or just a little above average.

more gfs la la canes

From this morning via iPhone:

Intuitively it has to be higher. Not intending to condescend but it occurs upon looking at this, the background state is accelerating two-fold: once over for the fact that CC has not been linear over the last 2 to 3 decades, but now especially with the 2nd reason in the onsetting supposed record warm ENSO. ENSOs are correlated with warm global 'spikes' in temperature means. Superimposing these two expectations over one another lends to 'adjusting' an increase in any derivatives that describe that system - a transience certainly being one of those...

Over 3” of rain at least

This has been a pretty meh August. I guess we just hit 90.0F on the 7th. But boring for the most part here. I had thought we would get some good thunderstorm activity this month but so far that has been a dud.

That’s impressive for August

Got about 0.45 with a thunderstorm last evening. We had lots of close lightning strikes and lost power for three and a half hours. The RainDrop app was accurate this time. We've lost power more times in five months at this new house than in 25 years at the Germantown house. I'm shopping for generators LOL

This event is really in a class all by itself. We are currently well ahead of our last east based super El Niño back in the summer of 1997. Large area of +10 subsurface now when only at +7 in 1997.

are those the ones on Kettle Pond? As we were exploring the area, we noticed that Kettle Pond had a bunch of lean-tos that you could only access by paddling or hiking in.

Looks about 1/4” fell here

The highest temperatures during 1977 heatwave were mostly focused in Central Park when the thermometer was still out in the open and not under the trees like today. Outside of that 9 day run in mid-July, it was a cool summer by recent standards. There was a strong seabreeze that week so the South Shore spots like JFK had much cooler highs than Central Park. We are coming up on the 40th anniversary of the last August freeze at MPO. Along with the last August 50° low in NYC. Average High Temperature Data for July 13, 1977 through July 21, 1977 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 97.1 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 97.1 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 96.9 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 95.8 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 95.8 NY SCARSDALE COOP 95.4 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95.3 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 95.1 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 95.0 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 94.9 NJ CRANFORD COOP 94.8 NY WEST POINT COOP 94.4 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 93.9 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 93.7 CT DANBURY COOP 92.9 NY MARYKNOLL COOP 92.9 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 92.8 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 92.8 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 92.8 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 92.7 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 92.4 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 92.3 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 92.3 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 92.2 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 92.1 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 92.1 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 91.9 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 91.8 NY SUFFERN COOP 91.7 CT GROTON COOP 91.4 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 91.3 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 91.3 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 90.8 NY MINEOLA COOP 90.8 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 90.8 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 90.7 NY CARMEL COOP 90.2 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 89.8 CT WESTBROOK COOP 89.7 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 89.6 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 89.3 Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Aug Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1986 31 0 2 1965 32 0 - 1907 32 0 3 1987 33 4 - 1941 33 0 - 1940 33 0 4 1982 34 0 - 1976 34 0 - 1942 34 0 - 1923 34 0 - 1910 34 0 - 1908 34 0 - 1904 34 0 5 1979 35 0 - 1921 35 0 - 1916 35 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1986 50 0 - 1982 50 0 - 1976 50 0 - 1965 50 0 - 1885 50 0

over 340K

69 when I left the house with some nice valley fog. Yesterday’s storms missed me, which is fine because my yard is quite spongy. Onward.

I'm not sure about down on The Island but, there has been a mass die-off of bats in the Hudson Valley, over 95% of one species and I think high 70s for another. Bats eat LOTS of mosquitoes. The mosquitoes seem to love not having those predators in their world It's called white nose syndrome and it's taking out bats all over Upstate.

Yeah, thought that was odd too.

entering our minor diurnal shifts season locked in on comfort+

A bit less snow than when I was last at those Gorton lean-tos.

WxBell winter forecast and discussion. I think the maps were previously posted, but maybe not the discussion with analogs. https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2026-27-preview

This study provides an estimate of transient climate response (TCR) using CERES net radiation estimates and updates temperature-based estimates through 2025. The new TCR estimates for temperature are a little higher than previous studies (orange bars) and the CERES TCR estimates (red bars) are higher still, inline with TCR estimated with the warmer CMIP6 models. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2026EF008356

I’ve been on these boards for over 25 years and I’ve yet to find a more optimistic poster than jebman.

Climatology always finds a way to break free even from the most hostile conditions. I'm sure we'll see at least one long tracking hurricane in the next 1 1/2 months. We had Joaquin in 2015 and that one was originally forecast to pull another hurricane Sandy into the east coast but that eventually didn't pan out. Joaquin was able to find the perfect spot to turn into a high end category 4 and hang around for a while.

67 degrees this morning Picked up .72” of rain yesterday. With just a popup storm on the radar. Really down poured.