All Activity

I don’t hate this. Not as cold as some are advertising out there, but seems to like an active storm track

Who is it ?

Yes, it's warmer today. But the 1930s were quite warm too, especially in North America. So warm, in fact, that certain people like to constantly bring them up to "rebut" climate change. A few notable cold snaps don't change that fact. New York City's moving 30-year mean annual snowfall was pretty steady between 32 and 34 inches until the mid 1920s - and that's generally with measuring the new fallen depth, not snowboards and 6 hourly or more frequent measurements. So, the "snow drought" from the late 1920s and early/mid 1930s was certainly a big departure from the long-term climatology.

That’s disturbing.

The EPS is on an island right now. The Euro Weeklies, after being locked-in for weeks, have flipped to AN temps for week one of December and normal for week 2. It is definitely "can kicking." On the other hand, the GFS and Canadian ensembles and LR ext models have assumed the Euro Weeklies former "cold is king" spot. Welcome to shoulder season modeling. The CFSv2 at lunch was just ridiculously cold w/ the ridge heights and trough lows. We are talking subtropics to the NP. That is not a stable pattern, and probably why we see differences. But....that is a pattern which could deliver insanely cold air into the Lower 48. The December which Boone referenced and 89 would be on the table as ensembles. I "think" cold is coming, but going into battle with the Weeklies flipping doesn't give me great confidence. I often wonder if the Euro Weeklies are about 1-2 days ahead of other LR ext models w/ better data. With the Weeklies trending away from a cold start to December, I would think other LR ext models will do the same during the next couple of days - if they are actually going to flip. BTW, the 500 pattern isn't terrible on the Euro Weeklies, but it isn't cold either. The SSW....has screwed up more than one great cold snap during the past decade. That event often wrecks havoc on modeling and can inflict damage on what looked like a promising even. The SSW....most likely we are looking at modeling bouncing around due to low level cold air being underneath those 500 patterns. Might as well drop a cat in a bathtub - cause all you know what is gonna break loose. Overall, I think cold is coming just after thanksgiving, but with a strong word of caution. FWIW, I generally like the CMC when cold is in the forecast at medium and long range. It often over-does the cold, but it actually "sees" it. I would feel a bit better if the Euro and EPS hadn't been right about this last system, and "at range" to boot. But the GEFS was sneaky good as well - just not the GFS. The GEFS looks like a good compromise for the two weeks after Thanksgiving.

75 in Champaign

Temperatures have overachieved today and we’ve set a new record high in Minneapolis. 72 breaking the old record of 71

The Climate Prediction Center is also showing what the Euro Weeklies is showing with the cold air and above precip and a SE ridge down to the south.

next week looks quite rainy and wet pattern taking place

grok-video-647cdb94-f014-4eb8-ae43-d33ac2aa76e7.mp4

In my amateur opinion...I wouldn't get excited about any winter before it happens--especially in this current cycle of underperformance we've been in with this -PDO. Just keep expectations neutral...it is a nina so you know the potential of those is limited even in better conditions anyway.

The EPS has a similar set up, but much less extreme as is normal for ensembles vs OP runs, and the cold isn't quite to our area yet at the end.

Today’s Euro Weeklies: 1. SPV: though there’s still a decent % with a reversal on 11/25, there actually was a notable drop in the % of SSWs on 11/25 in exchange for an increase in the % for that to be ~11/27-8: @MJO812@BlizzardWx Yesterday’s: 2. Today’s E US 2m temps are similar to yesterday’s run for Dec with a strong SE ridge early (mild again in the SE to lower Mid-Atlantic) that again slowly weakens through mid-Dec: 12/1-7: 12/8-14: 12/15-21: (12/22-28 similar) But yesterday’s extended EPS/GEFS were forecasting the MJO on 12/11-14 to reach phase 8, which is about the coldest phase on avg in the E US in Dec. with 60%/80% of them having been cold in Baltimore/RDU, for examples. Also, should the SSWE actually occur, the lagged cold may also start ~mid-Dec. So, should it actually get to phase 8 and the SSW occur in late Nov, I’d be looking for a very good chance for 12/15-21 and 12/22-28 to turn much colder in the E US on later runs as we get closer. That’s still a month out, an eternity for model accuracy and the ability for big changes to be seen. *Edit: In semi-windshield washer form, the 12Z EPS did turn back a bit colder in the SE US the last few days of the run vs the 0Z run due to a weaker SE ridge though it doesn’t look nearly as good to me as yesterday’s 12Z. Regardless, it is well after the end of the 2 week EPS that has the best prospects for cold for the 2 reasons I gave above. Patience would be helpful.

The end of the Euro is a big Alaska block and cold rapidly advancing eastward into our area from straight over the pole. It's not too dissimilar to the post Carvers made above of the GEPS but it is a bit warmer on the west coast with AN temps there.

You're gonna get it! This is going to be an exciting snow winter in the East and the Mid Atlantic's gonnabe leading the way!

Yep. 65F Christmas week is how we usually roll in Ninas round these here parts

Better than what he's usually full of

I’ll believe it when it happens.

Exhilarating

I agree. He’s trying to hype it into a KU coastal storm pattern up the east coast. I don’t know what in the heck he’s looking at

Woof

I fell for that hook, line & sinker in Dec 1989

Well, it is dry from the wood stove.

I’ll take January 1996 and call it a winter.