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sustained 20-25mph east wind for a few minutes here. Maybe higher?

My back yard is filling up with leaves. Foliage maps say we're heading into peak, but at least locally, things were more vibrant late last week. Will probably get a second wave of color as different species begin to change.

Practically calm here

yes

82/83 was east based too. It holds the record for max RONI SSTA at 2.4 in 12/82 & 1/83. We're close to that right now. Can't throw out that one. We'll be fighting temps all winter. That's a guarantee, but that's nothing new for the MA. Though December might yield a light fluke, we're probably waiting for 1_15 or later imho.

Hard to argue

I recommend this brand.

Was this wind forecast? Worse than anything this month

yeah, i'm over 40 done with the CAD life

I mainly track ENSO for its effects on tropical cyclone activity but I do have some surface-level knowledge (emphasis on "surface-level") on its correlation with NA winter synoptics. From what I gather 1997-98 seems to be a prime analog this year given the strength and flavor/orientation of the Niño which isn't promising (torch city with very little resulting snowfall as a result). I would also think the comparatively greater magnitude and eastward extent of this event may be cause for even more concern this time around? Because we're at record levels in both cases: Hopefully I'm wrong and we do find a window or two where we are able to cash in within an established unfavorable pattern though.

keep the snow talk at home and i won't hammer you people

My niece was right in the middle of this one. Sounds like she and her property are ok. I'll let you know if she experienced anything bad or interesting.

"Big Blue Blob™ weather" -@Ian

Those…..were…….AWESOME it was incredible. Earth shaking thunder and frequent lightning strikes either here or very close by. Rain was so heavy at times I couldn’t see past our patio door. I took fantastic four minute video of it and when I learn how to post it I will. Edit: tornado watch issued until 6pm pst here

WAD>CAD

No worries hopefully can catch it next time I saw a post of it but was like probably won’t be able to see it cause all the way over to where Florida is but had the areas all the way to where middle TN which was impressive .

I'm still beating up myself for not knowing. We were perfectly positioned on Hilton Head Island. Perfectly clear sky. Look up and see the Milky Way without time to adjust.

I was truly shocked how the cold rushed over the Plateau during the day! It was forecast, but seeing is believing. Takes me back to sudden Plains fropa and I loved it! Then Jax's previous post.. If we play our cards right, that's severe weather in mid-November leading up to Thanksgiving depending on timing. Path from SER to BN heights, baring a stupid cap like last week, is severe wx. I infer southwest flow on the weekly products.

As a further test of the new higher-resolution ECMWF, I pulled the data for today's high temperatures for select NYC area locations. This data is also from the 10/21 0z cycle. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

Congrats Dendrite ! Put it in a smoothie with vanilla high protein yogurt, its really good. Definitely a unique flavor combo. Those fruits look awesome

We'll probably get periods of -NAO as the massive tropical warmth pushes poleward and tries to reflect back. However, cold air supply will be a problem. Fighting the PDO could be a problem. I'm still looking for a really mild winter. First for November, if any of these weekly products are even close.. tee up severe leading into Thanksgiving!

I think the mid season warming may end up more of a reflection event/CW.

The GEFS NAO prog continues to correct to more positive. Check out how much it has risen over the last 8 forecast days: Oct. 13th fcast mean had it never getting >+1 and that on Oct. 15th with it later down to sub -0.8 for 6 days with it continuing through end of forecast period; It had Oct. 27th down at -0.9: Today’s forecast is so much more positive: it actually peaked way up at +1.73 on Oct 19th and with forecast now dipping only to -0.7 on Oct 22nd followed by a sharp rise to +0.8 on Oct 27th (vs the Oct 13th run having it down at -0.9): Per @Stormchaserchuck1this solidly +NAO in Oct. is actually a good sign if one wants the chance for a -NAO domination in winter to increase. I’m just passing that along as it isn’t my own idea. Forecast models are suggesting a good chance of a -NAO in Feb, regardless. Before that will be tough imho due to at least solar but we’ll see.