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If this was winter I’d be stressing here, even at Day 5, ha. I can’t imagine the forcing would be this widespread but a couple strong systems for the time of year, tomorrow and Monday.

00z better. Seems like we’ll get temps near and over 80 which is key imo. Hodos are nice.

I’m worried about convection Rob. That happens so often in summer . Need to get this to noon Saturday still showing this to buy .

The fact we've managed to get a couple of big ones in what should have been a completely rained out event just shows how this event could've been something historical if things went a little differently

If anything it'll trend weak and north, models (non-mesos) love blowing up those meso lows in coarse grids. I could be wrong

we everywhere

https://x.com/saperstein21/status/2067062219938894259?s=46

If it doesn’t sink south

Rainy where? South of Fredericksburg?

Comical

you'll see 1" Monday AM

No Scotland, no problem

lfg

Looks like a typical seasonal progression going forward- EOM into July could be a roaster.

Sizeable TDS

Working overnights so hence my delayed response. I say to CoastalWx and WxWiz, SPC added a 2% tor risk in New England in the DY2 1730z update!!!! (adding the exclamation points to be like Indeedsnow - LOL). "As I had been saying for tor risk..." 18z HRRR VT 22z Thu. 3 discrete supercells. PWM, PSM, and one just N of Woburn MA (where I am from). Scott needs a plan to chase!

Got one eating right over effingham

Let them feast. It's a waste of time killing them. Once they move in they're there to stay. They will suck for a few years and then their numbers will wane a bit. Other animals start to learn they make a tasty meal.

The sky this afternoon was pretty awesome with the towering clouds and vivid shades of grey. Only picked up 0.07" here in two separate showers.

Last soldier standing about to melt out.

Wow where was that look for the past several winters?

Yes, but when it comes to sig tor events no matter where you are, the very small details are everything. One parameter off, or not sufficient, can make a big difference. For instance, dew points are few degrees lower in in BL than fcst. That raises the LFC, decreases 0-3 km CAPE, and makes supercells more outflow dominant, which curtails the high-end tornado potential or any tornadoes at all. There is very little difference between a sig tor event and a weak tor event if you look at the large picture. It can look perfect synoptically, but it comes down to the mesoscale in the end.

Subsurface continues to look really healthy. TAO/Triton will probably pop >+8c in the next few days.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.png big marginal risk out for all of the South Ohio valley and mid Atlantic and parts of New England and parts of Great Plains with also a strip of slight risk New England down to upper South .