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Nice! Birdwatching is my big hobby. Was debating driving to Great Falls VA today. Very rare bird there the last 2 days. Red-flanked Bluetail.

Euro AIfS have been the most skillful on paper.

Whether the start warm resulted in the very cold December, I don't know for sure, but you're on your way for a decent winter... fingers crossed. Certainly recalls the way winter used to be for me here in nwNJ 1960s-70s,90s

We Euro AI for midweek

Had see what’s going on with all this activity then I get ok here and realize it’s 3/4 of a page on where is PSU? Good Lord don’t inflate his ego.

my dad has gotten super into coffee. When I was home over the holiday, he had his scale to measure the right amount of beans, then he would grind them for a slow pour.

Childish? I find his write ups rather informative and grounded.

historically, our best timeframe for hecs, or just coastal storms in general, has been the last couple weeks of January into the first couple weeks of February...and then again around the ides of March...if we can squeeze out some bonus snows before and after that period and hope for a nice bomb in between, we can maybe reach climo avg for the first time in years in SNE...and elsewhere for that matter... here's to wishcasting for the new year! also, another year without a storm on my birthday tomorrow so I digress.

Agreed. This place isn’t the same without his 1000 word responses and childish rants.

Ehhh

The technology I get to use is from the stone ages

coffee makes me poo

lol classic Ji

Good post - bird watching is top-tier in my opinion. Nice blend of chance and skill. Just saw some Sandhill Cranes on Christmas Eve 2 miles from my house. It was a life bird for me.

If this ends up being another I-44 winter, this will be one of the most unique ways we've gotten there.

Only 6 more weeks till we gotta start worrying about the sun angle.

Moon over snow squall clouds

Saving them all for you, boo

Yeah, pretty classic La Nina December in the orientation of the anomalies. Feb is the highest correlated ENSO month, it will be interesting to see if we have more -PNA conditions if warm water continues to infiltrate the ENSO subsurface.. right now the subsurface general is ENSO Neutral.

18-19 only sucked in the mountains and northern fringe.

While this is almost always an error the GFS makes (that is the depiction of rain to snow with a front), it is interesting to see it colder overall.

I admit I was very wrong with my call for December. I hope I am wrong with my call for January as well. In fact; I’m usually more wrong than right when it comes to this stuff.

The weekend looks to be mainly dry with colder than normal temperatures. A few flurries are possible in parts of the region early Sunday. The first week of January could have a mean temperature below 30° in New York City. If that happends, it would be the coldest opening week of January since 2018. The only years since 2000 with a sub-30° mean temperature for the opening week of January were 2001, 2010, 2014 and 2018. Milder weather will likely develop on or around January 7th. The milder period appears likely to last for about a week, but there is some uncertainty about its duration. Afterward, conditions could become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +9.29 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.828 today.

Careful, some people are going to whinge at you when you do.

Lots of folks on here seemingly are in need of other hobbies. Pick something! It will help you fill the time. I'll be the first to admit that having snow chances fade is really disappointing. In the past 2 months I've gone down the espresso/coffee rabbit hole. Trying a new latte/coffee drink recipe most mornings is a fun experience. Many of the folks on here are craft beer enthusiasts - indulge in that! I also plane spot where I get the chance, spend time with your pets/family/etc - do a big puzzle, grab a new video game. There are countless ways you can get lost in something new to pass the time until a snow threat becomes apparent. Or,...the less desirable option....if you work...lose yourself in the ho hum of the 9-5... It doesn't make the sting of missed snow chances any less...but it helps pass the time until a new threat emerges.