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There is no direct linear forcing ... the MJO produces a latent heat flux which disperses down stream, and that is adds to ridging ... troughing ..etc. That whole process, processes out any direct causality, and leaves it to vestigial ( ie. modulation, not a forcer) influence. That's all I'm saying. And it is true. I also did not say that. I said "I'm not sure I'm following..." in this case the context; I was just trying to remind people that the MJO does not set tables.

Right now I would not be worried about significant, long duration power outages. There is no signal for high winds and this is going to be a light, fluffy snow. Looks like cold powder.

I’m at around 10+ down here inland Toms River, checks out. Nice map!

So your saying there's a chance

It's been said, but this part of this morning's AFD is what I'll be thinking about through today's model runs. "With the parent features still across the more barren high latitudes, models may take another day or two to resolve such features with better precision (note: recon flights are expected to take place near the Southwest CONUS later today - that`s where models have been most sensitive to changes"

One of the things we don't have to worry about is a strong arctic high pressure being firmly established. It will Not be bullied easily. WB 12K NAM still showing high building in on schedule.

11 low here

The optimistic / wish casting perspective is that since the storm needs essentially a perfect phase out west to get that far north, there's a lot that can go wrong from the perspective of the people in northern Maryland who aren't content with 6 to 12 inches It doesn't seem like this is exactly the same as the north trend that we generally get with big storms due to underestimation of the mix line and the northern extent of the precip. Of course on the other hand, that means that we could get another north trend tomorrow/Friday if last night's euro is right about the upper level pattern.

Yes. It has done that with many systems this winter. I don't know if there is a window where data is missing(systems going through blind spots like the Arctic Circle or eastern Pac) or if that is just a bias. OTH, the GFS has had big time problems w/ Baja energy this winter. At one point, it tried to tap a Pacific tropical system and funnel that moisture into E TN. But with trends across several models...sure looks like a warmer system(compared to yesterday's runs) is likely.

Oh damn, down to 3 up here

My favorite bust, April 1982, is one that didn't fit the weak pressure - don't know the mb but something produced the gusts to near 60 in northern Maine. We heard about the blizzard conditions in NYC at game time at Yankee Stadium on 4/6, but the storm was progged for OTS. Afternoon forecast from CAR was cloudy, windy 20s. The evening revision added "flurries". At 9 PM when I went out to reset the max/min I noted the prominent ring around the moon and thought "I wonder . . ." Woke up about 2 AM and the view outside had that 'thick' gray texture of middle-of-night S+. CAR recorded 26.3" from that storm. My guess at our place was 17" but with the gales, who knows. High temp on 4/7 was 17 but the stake level actually dropped from 27" to 26" - it was in a wind-scoured valley between drifts about 4 feet taller. Our little black Chevette was almost totally buried; only a palm-sized patch was visible.

Oh. I’m in play. What a dramatic shift. No work getting done today

Yeah, okay ... this is not a remarkable low pressure system that is by virtue of source, toting a PWAT anomaly. It is what it is... but as it's rapidly moving and gaining latitude ( as is, in recent guidance - ), there quite a front loaded isentropic snow wall/dump. If you look closely without the dopa fixation clouding judgement, you'll notice that the QPF field is actually weakening as this gets higher than NYC. Support runs off and the isentropic lift weakens when that happens, and we're left with weak total cyclone parametrics lingering light to moderate snows... In total, this can perform prolifically above the climo for typical "1000 mb machinery" because of all this. To things are true in deterministic effort here. One, what I just said. Two, model tendencies to attenuate off mid range events as they come into nearer terms. These two aspects are sort of competing with this 26/27 system. This is more of a philosophical approach here. The other thing that should be considered is that this whole mess is large, but is moving so fast - that will limit some... but, I think the more important implication of that speed is that it is exposing a problem of too much gradient in the field/which necessarily increases velocities everywhere. That is a "built in" negative interference for phasing. ...It's just supplying an argument to limit any potential of slowing this down.

NAM @ 39hrs. .

If the more aggressive northern models are correct, a lot of people north of the KS/Ok line, extended into Missouri are going to be caught off guard.

Listen, if we can manage 10 inches and some sleet on top, we’re golden. I feel genuinely bad for whoever gets it, but that ice storm ish can stay the f*** away. Especially after ice knocked out the city’s water infrastructure last January. .

I was referring to how slow the model was running. Havent even looked at any of the plots yet

I am excited that the what falls won't melt away in three days. Give me enough to make everything white and then freeze it for a week. My dream winter.

Since we all have nothing better to look at right now... 12z NAM at 45 h5

Those of us who can generate their own cold are used to it +9 degress now.

That's me that says that, not josh. Dont poke the bear or he will stat you 6 feet into the ground.

06Z GEFS run. Looking like still a decent spread in possibilities of where the coastal low sets up. There's still a good amount of southern members, so I'm not panicking yet. My question is are the models underestimating the CAD that will be in-place by the time the system rolls in. The low-temp this morning in RVA was a few degrees colder than forecasted. Hoping the CAD will be deeper than the models are showing. GEFS Ensemble Pressure Centers

Not saying this will have anything at all to do with this storm, but the coastal system last week trended north quite a bit by the euro at about this range and then it ended up going back to basically where it started at. I actually think there were several mods that trended north and then came back. .

@36 the large lobe of energy north of MN/WI seems to be having an effect here. More pronounced with strength and progression on kinking southwest. Curious how it will relate downstream. Ok yea.. @42 confluence is pretty pronounced here compared to 6Z. Again I KNOW we are talking Nam but any positive shift is always a good sign to kick off 12z runs.

when all the models make a big jump to a similar idea the big moves usually stop