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Look at the NAM 500mb starting at 60 hours (ugh, I know). It is trying to create a second UL over eastern WV up into PA. Absolutely not modelled anywhere until now...

The “dry slot” results from strong sinking motion (subsidence) on the storm's western/northwestern flank (classic comma-head dry punch) wrapping drier mid-level air in from the west/southwest…which limits precip westward/inland despite good low-level moisture feed (e.g., Gulf/Atlantic wrap-in via onshore flow and warm advection). In the more offshore/eastward-biased solutions, the dry slot expands more aggressively westward, carving deeper into the interior areas…which reduces the moisture feed's ability to "blossom" widespread heavy snow farther west/inland. If the surface low hugs the coast (stronger interaction with the ULL), the dry slot narrows/weakens on the west side, allowing better moisture wrap-in from the Atlantic/Gulf and heavier, more widespread bands eastward/inland.

Fv3 also is a nice 4-8” event for us here in the mountains. Seems like a good consensus in those numbers at the moment.

For the love of god please stick to weather. —- I do agree that if we get this close enough there will be a western band that extends further back. I still think that part of CT is still in the game for a plowable event. I haven’t punted this one yet.

Well, most spots stayed above zero including here in East Nantmeal where our low was 5.5 above zero. A couple of our network stations reached below zero with both Warwick Township (-6.5 below) and Nottingham (-0.3). A reinforcing shot of arctic air arrives later today so the NWS continues to have most spots with below zero low temperatures again tonight and Friday night. The coastal storm this weekend continues to look likely to stay far enough southeast of our area to give us no more than flurries. Any potential snow accumulation looks to be confined to the shore points. Either way our persistent cold pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future. In fact, the longer-range ensemble models have us staying below freezing both day and night through at least mid-February! This if it occurred may be one of our greatest sustained cold periods on record with data back to 1894. I will need to do a little digging on that one. Either way stay warm!

When this ULL wave gets over Tenn. it will tell the tale one way or the other on the coastal performance sounds like. At that point we'll know right? When will that be exactly?

Also I gotta say if you live in upstate SC/NE GA trends have been great for you guys over the past 12 hours. Would not be surprised at all to see Greenville SC get 6"+

Well, most spots stayed above zero including here in East Nantmeal where our low was 5.5 above zero. A couple of our network stations reached below zero with both Warwick Township (-6.5 below) and Nottingham (-0.3). A reinforcing shot of arctic air arrives later today so the NWS continues to have most spots with below zero low temperatures again tonight and Friday night. The coastal storm this weekend continues to look likely to stay far enough southeast of our area to give us no more than flurries. Any potential snow accumulation looks to be confined to the shore points. Either way our persistent cold pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future. In fact, the longer-range ensemble models have us staying below freezing both day and night through at least mid-February! This if it occurred may be one of our greatest sustained cold periods on record with data back to 1894. I will need to do a little digging on that one. Either way stay warm!

This seems very sensible. DTs first call appears on track. Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

Confused why folks are upset over the latest NAM?

We are getting most of the trends we want at 500mb but it looks like we have another low developing way offshore robbing moisture from the main one

-10ish down the road in the valley again…pushed -15 over by Winnisquam. Min was -1.7 here. Years ago that would’ve pissed me off, but now we take.

Butler I would say 45 inches.

I actually agree with this sentiment ...wrt to just this 12z run, sure - The system's close 531 dm actually encases the whole region with some E component at that 500 mb initiated. The QPF paint on the actual surface chart looks dubiously broken apart. This is a very large system. It's possible in fact probable that the there'll be an extended quasi CCB arc out farther than the typical size one may be used to seeing. I mean I'm not trying to gaslight anyone into thinking but this arc could be more formed than what we are seeing here - if having the visual example helps ...

That’s why I’m so confused at these posts. Look at the gradient. Wherever it is. I don’t see anything other a massive precip field moving over the region. It’s a pretty narrow area, for those that get into it. Some of these runs show like an inch for Boston and foot for the cape. That doesn’t scream broad circulation to me

I agree, but I actually think both points are valid. There is still considerable uncertainty, even this close to the event. Dry slots look likely now, but this is not gospel as to exactly where. .

I just don’t think it’ll be that extreme.

go attack a federal agent while armed, you loser.

Well they will most certainly have the winds - everything I've seen points to somewhere between 50-65 mph along with the snow.

GRAF kinda mirrors the NAM, so I do think the concern is legit. It's wait and see time

Are we sure this is still this powerhouse of a system? It seems with all these other lows and what not…it’s robbing the potential for whatever low does seem to become the primary storm so to speak? This is a mess…I have a feeling this becomes something completely different than what we all were expecting. Whether that helps or hurts SNE, remains to be seen. But most of us are out of the game anyway, as it looks now, so let’s morph this into something else, and take our chances?

I think they may verify for a blizzard Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Maybe reported by TalcottWx??

Doesn’t seem like there’s much chance that’ll happen until we get the fabled moderate, west based El Niño again. .

Exactly I still think the models are focusing on the convection to the east.