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RIP winter 2026-2027...we never even knew ya. Quick @Weather Will post up that CFS DJF prediction to steer us back toward the light. Or somebody post up the latest JB tweet to give us hope.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Comparison of the difference in SSTs, last summer to this summer, same time frame….huge wow, night and day, not just at ENSO, but the +PMM as well. You can also see the IOD flip to positive with the big cooling in the eastern IOD region around Indonesia, not shown but there has also been very substantial warming in the western IOD region -
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Since Dolphin has already peaked twice and another ERC imminent it seems, the storm will continue to expand in size overall, and it may undergo another ERC. All along, it is slowly gaining latitude. What this means is that despite the very low pressures shown once it gets to the RODN and ZSSS areas, the storm will almost certainly expanded even more w/ a very large eye. The ECMWF shows this well. Take a look at its 222 hr (yes, I know this is way out, but model agreement is excellent as to the large-scale pattern as to Dolphin's track). The eye is about 120 nm in diameter! This is not unreasonable and has happened many times for long-tracked TC in the NWPAC. STY Winnie in 1997 is among the most classic examples. It had a 200 nm eye when it approached China! See attachments. The point being once a TC has maxed out in the deep tropics, it is very difficult for it to attain that same kind of intense status again b/c 1) ERCs expand the storm progressively, and 2) as you gain latitude, Coriolis increases which results in a decrease in max tangential wind speeds and acts to expand the TC. So the TC often has the same net energy as a Cat 5, but it is much more spread out, so winds may only be Cat 3. Also, Dolphin may become an annular hurricane, which is a stable status where the eye is quite large, and there is almost no banding. It looks like a truck tire w/ stark symmetry. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_tropical_cyclone TC Winnie 1997 https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1416591836504862720
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Thanks. It has to be rare.
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Tornadic waterspout is the answer: A tornadic waterspout is a true tornado that forms over water or moves from land to water. It develops downward from a severe thunderstorm, bringing high winds, large hail, and lightning. [1, 2, 3]
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The supercell started in Richmond, VA. Dropped a tornado on the James river. Could have been anywhere.
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"Tornadic waterspouts", also accurately referred to as "tornadoes over water", are formed from mesocyclones in a manner essentially identical to land-based tornadoes in connection with severe thunderstorms, but simply occurring over water.[22] A tornado which travels from land to a body of water would also be considered a tornadic waterspout.[23] Since the vast majority of mesocyclonic thunderstorms in the United States occur in land-locked areas, true tornadic waterspouts are correspondingly rarer than their fair-weather counterparts in that country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterspout
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anotherman started following August 2026 Medium/ Long Range
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A lot of Suffolk has between 2 and 3”. Im at 2.35”. Islip airport about the same.
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That is literally the most idiotic answer ever. I want an answer from Wakefield NWS and they won't answer either.
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Everyone knows that an evening at Red Lobster is no small affair. I press my jeans, put on my finest hair product, and drench myself in a musky cologne. Hell, I may even shine up my wing tipped shoes, for I am going to Red Lobster. I strut through the door with my finest lady on my arm and throw up two fingers to the Hostess. I glide past the lobster tank with ease knowing that yet again I will not be eating a red lobster at Red Lobster (who would). I take a seat and before the waiter asks us for our drinks I request 20 cheddar bay biscuits. It's such a bold move that music stops, glasses clink, and everyone in a 5 yard radius gasps in disbelief/shock. Even my company gives me a look of concern. The waiter says " s..sir are you sure?". I don't sweat one bit and I tell that waiter to step and make with the cbb's. he comes back with three baskets filled with biscuits (7 in 2 and 6 in another). I thank the waiter. Then I go straight baller!!!! I'm pounding biszcuits left and right. Smashing them in old dudes faces, rubbing them between my ladies t*tties, telling the waiter to f*** off. I cause a ruckus, only get cbb's, don't pay a dime, and leave with my girl plus three more.That's generally what happens every time I go to Red Lobster, I've gotten banned from 33 locations. I tell you this to let you know that Cheddar Bay Biscuit shrimp sandwhiches are without a doubt the most ballerest thing a baller could ball at Red Lobster.
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Squeaked out an 80/70 this aftrn. Comfortably warm.
