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Ensembles continue to show high confidence in a Nor`easter developing this weekend off the eastern seaboard as a digging eastern trough invokes cyclogenesis Saturday into Sunday. What we are still uncertain of is the exact track of the low tied to the timing of (or if) the upper low closes off from the flow. The snowiest scenario is one in which the low closes early is deeper. There is really only one cluster representing 25% of guidance at this point that allows for this to happen. Should it occur, probabilities of snow are mostly confined to the high terrain of West Virginia (60% chance of >1", 30% chance of >3", 10% chance of >6"). 75% of guidance has the low closing too late (and too east) or not deep enough to suggest much appreciable snow accumulation in the forecast area at this time.

Bueller?

I said I'd give it until 12z tomorrow, but obviously not seeing any encouraging trends today. Not ready to pull the plug, but I am looking around the room for the outlet.

All im saying is it’s going to snow Sunday/ Monday . I’m not saying feet are coming ( though you can’t yet rule that out either) Folks can check out , but we’ve seen these so many many times trend west the last 3 days in. It happened countless times in 2015. It may not this time , but some of these guys posts are premature

But what reasons does it have to trend west? And the answer is, none.

AI. Borrowed from their forum as well.

I’m just jealous you still have chips to push

You got chips left? How many chips do you have?

lol @Chattanooga

You can blame on this piece in canada, It was further south this run suppressing the hights over in the northeast

you have chips left? I put them all down on the euro 60 hours ago, damn casinos cleaned me out

Euro is stuck...

GFY for quoting me in the New England sub. I don't need to be reminded that we lost 15 inches to y'all last week

Agree the GFS is on an island, but that is a snow depth map and includes the glacier on the ground in Virginia right now.

Putting all my remaining chips on the snow threat for tonight.

EPS came out and is SE of the 6z run but still gets a warning event here.

Yeah. Just wish there was another big one in site while we are still in phase 3.

It was out to the panel where it was affecting them.

they literally made the euro run at off hours so that it could be less accurate and more annoying to use. what a concept

Honestly I’d love 3-6, perfect refresh for this awesome pack. However I’m pretty confident IMBY that’s not happening. For you I could see something… Maybe…

PS: They really need to retire the GFS or fix it. I get that this was a complex setup. But it showed a 40-50 inch storm for south MD/DE 24 hours ago and now its a big fat zero.

If everyone would quit hitting F5 and just let me hit it, we could get on down the road.

“Low 20s” at DCA is at least 25 so far today.

At this rate the NAM is going to be running when the euro finishes its run