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We grow here now. Frost and freezes are done. Thank you spring and CC!
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2026-2027 El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
There's only been one: 1916-17 (and this was part of a triple la nina, which began in 1915-16 and ended in 1917-18). That was when global temperatures were at a minimum in the post-Industrial Revolution era. Of course, 1916-17 and 1917-18 are some of the coldest CONUS winters on record, and I believe the super la nina had a hand in it. The closest we've come since then were in 1973-74 and 1988-89, and both immediately followed robust el ninos (the super el nino of 1972-73 and double el nino of 1986-88, respectively). Classic cases of "sometimes the strongest el ninos are followed by the strongest la ninas". I feel like if we get a strong/super el nino, this time around it's going to be followed by a strong la nina, like in 1973, 1988, 1998, and 2010. -
The only thing that sucks is we get near freezing tonight up here so I have to play the potted plant shuffle again.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Low of 52 to go along with a trace of rain. Getting the first round of golf of the year in today. Onward. -
Full leafout by this time next weekend ?
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A week + of 80’s! Installs this weekend abound
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Pool is finally totally free of ice. 44F
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Yeah. Heard it roaring last night. And it continues
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A couple cigarette butts flicked out of car windows and we could have a ditty day.
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Euro is bone dry thru the end of the month.
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ACATT
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April 1976 was well above average in most of New England, and above average in New York, eastern PA, and NJ. This is still Boston's warmest April on record. Although, April 2010's warmth is much more widespread for the Eastern US.
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52 here. Nice morning
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Euro is a torch.
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Next week is on course to feature the warmest weather so far this season. Central Park's April 15th daily record of 87° from 1941 and Newark's daily record of 88° from 1960 could be challenged. Tuesday through Thursday will likely see highs in the 80s in the New York City region. Highs will reach the 70s on Long Island, but Islip could make a run at 80° on Wednesday (daily record: 78°, 2002 and 2024) if the onset of the sea breeze is delayed.
- 303 replies
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- april showers bring may..
- rain
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(and 2 more)
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41° and blowing pretty hard. I probably shouldn’t have taken any of the panels off the run yet…the chickens are getting buffeted.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
pawatch replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
47 degrees this morning. Picked up .28” of rain last evening. -
Forecasting now vs. 30 years ago
Newman replied to EWR757's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Well the NWS has implemented new policy/guidance that has completely stripped the human input in forecasting for days 4-7. And even days 1-3 are heavily produced based on the NBM. Take a look at the NWS Billings AFD from 3 days ago and the note at the bottom: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDBYZ&e=202604081847 So certainly the SOPs for forecasting in the NWS have completely changed. Now we're basically hitting the "send" button on whatever the NBM comes up with. And I can't emphasize enough how BAD the NBM was this past winter in many of our snowstorms. It is inherently a poor model to forecast with when you have short term model disagreement OR when you are dealing with a 90th percentile or 10th percentile type storm. The NWS Mount Holly office was still forecasting 18-24 inches of snow the starting day of the late February snowstorm out in its western CWA. And sure enough nobody saw more than 4-5" of snow. Why did this happen? Because they relied on the NBM which lags in data and model cycles AND weights certain models. Forecasting accuracy will plummet in the NWS until they figure out how to better implement the NBM and/or develop it. -
Wolfie has a derangement syndrome that every warm post is about CC. Sad to see.
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Shift that depiction 500 miles southwest
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No. MJO 8 and 1 are warm phases in New England in April. The warm anoms in Maine and Southeast Canada will continue to shift south on guidance as it catches on. The cold anoms over the central US SE and Mid Atlantic.
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How did that month rank overall Because you have to look at the whole and not just a few record days. 2010 was much warmer overall
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We wish we were in Guam!! Massive typhoon headed that way.. the GFS gets down to 922mb
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We should get cooler weather once the MJO travels through 8 and 1 along with the NAO and AO dipping negative.
