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It only takes 1 big coastal to get to around normal in many places. Euro has a big west based NAO forming.

I think March will be good.

Euro shows an opportunity mid month .

Ensembles really appeared to have overdone the warmth over the east US around the mid month period. The sings of an east coast trough are appearing around 1/11, which is a solid few days earlier than expected a few days ago. That will likely shorten our torch from 1/5-1/10, before a more favorable pattern reloads. I just don't like seeing such dry and mild conditions across south, central, and west US. They have a lot of ground to make up. Midwest and northeast are the only parts of the US that have had any meaningful cold or snow whatsoever this season. Even with the east coast trough, unless the pacific slows down enough to give us a big coastal, everything will be dominated by the northern stream. That means it'll take a lot of little events to boost us up towards seasonal average. I'm a bit skeptical

AWT.. there is no torch Back to snow threats by late next weekend https://x.com/bostonwxconsult/status/2007504924343779764?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Euro and AI show this. Alot of potential .

That is bullshit....watch.

That is the pearly white dong to the promised land.

Yup.

this is an H.A./ +d(PNA) correction event that happens to be going west of us here...

lol no more torch jan 10 onwards awful performance from the ensembles past d10 and look how it corrects in 48 hours

What a bust of a forecast today. Also, who wants to do the honors of starting a 2026 thread?

Couple close calls on euro AI D9+

Not that it means anything verbatim, but the GFS has fantasy blue at the end of the run. Hopefully it’s just another sign that the torch won’t be so torchy.

I thought my place had been chilly for December, but Fairbanks Alaska had -22.8 as the average

That radar is Da Bomb! Mammoth is getting FIREHOSED with moisture and constant heavy snow. Visibilities have gone completely to hell and all. Massive moisture elements are smashing up from the Channel Islands straight NNE thru Fresno and on up right into the Cordillera, hosing Mammoth with torrential snow right now. It's developed into a pretty good rendition of a milkshake froth at times in heavy snow and high winds. Where in the hell is plow guy when we need him? https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam He's probably exhausted from plowing deep snow all frackin' night already!

Good analogy .

Going by the AIs and AI ensembles, it looks like a simple matter of cracking a few eggs to make a nice omelet

That would shorten the torch to just 5 days instead of 7-10+ like previous runs were showing.

Dec QBO falls some more to -26.92, the lowest on record in Dec (to 1948) vs 2014’s -25.38. This sets up the chance for a record in Jan, too, though 2015’s -26.7 likely will be close: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Snow showers moving through. Big, fat flakes again like the other day. Up to quarter size (~1") with some elongated ones even bigger under calm conditions.

Welcome to thread the needle season (not expecting any snow still)

Since you didn't make location a condition (as your lifetime condition frankly just ain't fair for a lot of us younger folks from the Detroit area), I would say GHD 1 in Chicago...

One of those years where the warm is coming it’s going to be 60s and 70’s then the warmth is shooed cut down by the west northwesterly flow beat down. This sets up a normal winter IHO.

Been another great winter around the lakes. December was freezing and snowy. Let’s keep it rolling