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  2. Steamy 82 / 71 between building storms
  3. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ053&warncounty=NCC021&firewxzone=NCZ053&local_place1=2 Miles ENE Bent Creek NC&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Watch&lat=35.5109&lon=-82.6143 Severe thunderstorm watch.
  4. Severe Thunderstorm Watch just posted for entire area
  5. Typhoon Dolphin (12W) is expected to get to 165kt by the JTWC. (July 31st)
  6. And ya think that's primed to happen this time, too? (And was it the same in 72-73?)
  7. Looks like this stuff was fueled by a pretty tight theta-e gradient and on the edge of some pretty decent MUCAPE. MUCAPE values of 2000 J surging north through SNE. That's not too bad...I don't recall guidance having MUCAPE that high
  8. Surprised they issued a severe thunderstorm watch for all of NJ
  9. The first MCS appears to be holding together more than forecast, which could very well kill the chance for any severe in NC today. Frankly all I want is some more rain.
  10. This station is about 5 miles or so NW 1.55” . Sun trying to come back out so hopefully another chance later
  11. Sort of. That day involved some local storms that initiated followed by the main band along the forcing arriving from the northwest during the evening hours. This looks to be a line forming just to our northwest during the early/mid afternoon and rolling through at dinner time before making a quick exit. There is some curvature in the hodographs, so the tornado threat is definitely non-zero, although the forcing may result in a more linear structure. The box will go up for northern sections first, because there is good cam agreement on an initial wave of storms for northeast MD/PA/NJ earlier this afternoon.
  12. Thank you Jed for the reports. Morristown did more before 11am than most of us will do all day! The humidity is just plain gross today. Every summer we have a few of these 75 Td nuthouse days where it never mixes out. Gorgeous! said nobody ever. From MRX which I believe is public and it lines up with SPC 2% (and 5% simultaneous posts) Main concern will be damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch. A tornado or two is possible My first reaction was surprise. I've been so focused on temperatures, but a look upstairs reveals how we get 2%. Low levels are all veered off; but quite importantly, upper levels are nearly straight north. That's enough turning. Kinematics are only modest but any lone cell could at least put on a structure show. Let's do this!
  13. 1/2" of rain yesterday. Parts of my area just got destroyed. Seeing lots of pics this and videos this morning. Crazy rainfall amounts. Anyone able to post those maps with totals from home sites?
  14. I'll believe it when I see it. My town has a dome over it, right FPizz!!
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