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Oh. Do you have a link?

That's the August run...September is UGLY.

As a near coastal resident who was directly affected heavily by FIVE H/TS 2016-24, I’m very much enjoying the break from the stress of threats! However, looking back at the 6 other El Niño seasons with <4.4 ACE through Sep 6th tells me to still be cautious for the rest of the season, especially late Sept through mid-Oct: 1) 1941: -TS TX/LA border mid Sep -H TX late Sep -TS Windwards/MH Honduras/Nicaragua/H Belize late Sep -H NW Bahamas/MH S FL/H FL Pan early Oct -TS SE Bahamas/FL Big Bend mid Oct 2) 1929: -MH NW Bahamas and S FL tip/H FL Pan late Sep 3) 1914: -TS FL/GA border mid Sep 4) 1905: -TS Belize/LA late Sep -TS W Haiti early Oct -TS LA early Oct 5) 1904: -H upper SC mid Sep -TS Belize early Oct -H C Cuba/S FL mid Oct -TS FL Pan early Nov 6) 1876: -H/Leewards/MH VI and PR/H Hisp/E Cuba/NC mid Sep -TS Windwards late Sep/H Nicaragua early Oct -H Caymans/MH W Cuba/H Keys and SW FL/TS Bermuda mid Oct These six very quiet first half of season El Niño analogs are suggesting an avg of 3 TCs (range 1-5), including 1.5 H (range 0-3) and 0.8 MH (range 0-2) yet to come that would have significant to major land impacts. Hopefully though it will be most like 1914 or otherwise 1905 at the worst! https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

Gorgeous sunset.

Cooler air has finally arrived. Currently 66 at the house. Looks like the mid to upper 50's for lows in the morning.

Heres euro.

Maybe we are starting to see a pattern change the next several days.The stubborn ridge off Souitheast Asia is semmingly getting shunted East towards the Central Pac per the ensembles,as to where the MJO goes could seemingly just be getting destrucive interference from Rossy/Kelvin closer to the MC,which JMA has been comsistent in showing but the JMA hasnt been doing a spectacular job as of late

Lots of these maps floating around socials

This ain't fair, man. I'll preface this with I am not fully convinced by Alby; I just don't believe in axing a coach after one rookie season. To me, that is not a fair chance by any means; ESPECIALLY when it's not all his fault. Veteran coach would've been better, but they hired Albernaz. But see any other rookie coach would get a minimum of two years, though! And what sunk this season ain't all on him--the bullpen decisions absolutely are. But it's possible that part can get better! The main bulk of what led us here is on Elias/Sig...including the lineups and of course all the analytics. Alby walked into a mess, and being inexperienced got him the ire of the fanbase and possibly a humiliating one and done. Not the most fair thing in the world, and he could very well improve and do well elsewhere if we fire him. I mean frickin' Joe Maddon praised the hire (along with others). Hard to believe they were all wrong and this is as good as Alby gets.

That chart is roughly 5C higher than the one I posted, 8C vs 3C for 2026 for instance. The 5C difference makes sense given the 900m elevation difference in the elevation basis of the estimates.

Yup.

Looking at satellite loops of the tropical Atlantic it looks like June 6th convection-wise not September 6th.

WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER

I think you mean era, but yeah. I am sure he is happy to be a part of...this. lol.

Some hurricane models now have it close enough for sustained hurricane winds.

Glorious 75 out. Had dinner on the deck.

There's no longer mention of any ring of fire pattern in the local forecast discussion, but they do mention gusty winds ramping up on wednesday and lasting into thursday afternoon along with increasing chances for thunderstorms. At this point in time, it looks that timing will keep severe limited according to the nws.

1. This very strong El Niño has a good chance to start helping out you and other SE dry areas by Nov and hopefully would then continue on/off through March as climo suggests. 2. I ended up getting very little from the late afternoon thunderstorms. It was only ~0.02”.

Might as well circle my house and add D4 on next drought monitor. We’ll have to wait 10 more months for another AN month of rain I guess

They haven't won in the Luis Roberts JR era yet

I'll be in CO this week and 18z GFS says when I get home its 75 with a dew 45