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Shark spotted in Barnegat Bay

Fay is one of the longest lasting storms that failed to reach hurricane intensity I can remember. We’re into the 30’s on NHC advisories. If that convection persists there’s a chance it retains storm status today too

^Thanks. Here is this morning’s NOAA weekly update for relative (for those who don’t know, this much better takes into account GW and thus became the official way of measuring by NOAA a good while ago) Nino anomalies for the average of last week compared to the avg for the prior week: this shows 1+2 still at +3.9 and the other 3 having warmed 0.1. Below that are the comparable weeks in 1997 and 1982: 16SEP2026 3.9 3.0 2.1 0.0 23SEP2026 3.9 3.1 2.2 0.1 24SEP1997 3.8 2.7 1.8 0.5 (the most E based prior to 2026) 22SEP1982 1.5 2.1 2.0 0.6 Compared to past years for the same week, 1+2 region’s +3.9 remains at its highest (weekly records back to 1981) for the 2nd week in a row, beating 1997’s +3.8. Next Monday’s release will likely be the 3rd week in a row at its highest. Nino 3’s +3.1 is its 2nd week in a row of being at a high with it easily beating 1997’s +2.7. Nino 3.4’s +2.2 beats 1982’s +2.0 for the warmest for that week and is its 3rd week in a row at a high. Nino 4’s +0.1 is way cooler than the other regions and also is significantly cooler than many years thus showing how much more E based 2026 is vs any other year on record including the prior most E based 1997: 1994 +0.9 1986 +0.8 2019 +0.7 2002 +0.7 2006 +0.6 2004 +0.6 2023 +0.5 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt @bluewave@OSUmetstud@40/70 Benchmark

ASOUT

Our biggest ACE producer of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season to date, Finicky Fidgety Fleeting Fay! At a whopping 3.6 points, and still holding on...

Guess those crazy Euro amounts were not that far off?

The current forecasts have it more east based mid-season than 1982-1983. That one was more full basin than 1997-1998 during the winter. With it becoming most east based late spring into early summer 1983. Which was part of the reason that February 1983 was better than 1998.

I just want to clarify some narratives being played in the forum. If you were inland, like I am in Westchester, this was pretty much nothing but an annoying drizzly sometimes rainy weekend. An under-performer based on what was hyped by an always hysterical populous. As for beaches, and Eastern Long Island, this was NOT a standard nor easter. The beaches on the north shore have devastation that I have only seen one time since 1988…Sandy. A tale of two storms…with the worst aspect being prolonged, days long erosion with strong NE winds

Wow...sharp cut-off around this area over the weekend....I'm not far from MHT at all.

10-11” likely there

I was waiting for another loss in last 2 mins. But an ugly win …. Is still a win.

Btw, the bom forecast for roni 3 was spot on from last month. Like other agencies the roni 4 was a big positive bias fail.

Good, more warm weather before we fall into the abyss. US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·2 hours ago · Today will be mostly cloudy with a few showers around this morning. Temperatures trend warmer as we head into the middle of the week, with some parts of Central PA expected to reach 80 degrees by Thursday.

sitting on the sideline with this one. 0.0" Friday, 0.1" Sat, 0.4" Sun, and 0.3" so far today, storm total <1". MTD closing in on 5", so we got that going for us, which is nice

Traditionally weekly noaa sst anomalies are at record in 1.2, 3, and 3.4 now.

In case there was any doubt as to where the west Pacific warm pool has migrated.....

Over .9 already today.

glad I have a 2 car garage that's not full of junk, was able to replace the factory radio in my other, newer Accord with a new Sony head unit, remote microphone, Alpine amp, and backup camera. took most of the weekend but man, the new radio is sweet. rain finally picking up and accumulating, 56/55. not as much wind as yesterday but still breezy

I would have lost my mind if this were winter. Puts a dent in the drought up here. but definitely doesn't entirely alleviate it.

2.92" rainfall total here, forgot to share yesterday but a friend of mine sent this pic to me from north babylon, neighbor had their tree fall on the house. Otherwise for the most part only twigs and small branches down in lindenhurst, only a handful of larger branches and small trees.

This is a stronger version of 1982 with the main difference being the warm pool east of Japan, hence the lower PDO....But QBO, solar, east-based super El Nino trying to shift more basin-wide mid season and the secondary 1.2 peak. Elite analog...about as good as it gets.

highs i am seeing for central park are upper 70's..

Anomaly increases the past 15 days.