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Yeah I agree. I know the end result maybe wasn’t ideal, but I’d rather have improved H5 look vs a H5 look that was worse but gave more QPF. Tha would be a red flag.

That vort is going to be so key….if it can stay a bit stronger/consolidated longer, it’s going to force the WCB action more which will directly help heights rise ahead of the system.

That's a pretty good synopsis of this thread, minus the mania.

If the AI actually pulls this out of its ass, all of us AI skeptics owe you several high end cocktails at a GTG. And none of that IPA crap either

Just stopped for lunch in Oquossoc at Bald Mtn Camps, Took a look at the page count from this morning and that’s all I need to see, We will get more snow up here with tomorrows system then Sunday.

Finally you're starting to get it. Im proud of you.

Its amazing how quickly it just slings up the coast. Basically goes from LA to the northern mid-Atlantic within 12 hours lol

I actually gotta work and can’t look. 1-2 for who?

I actually like how it’s getting heavier precip into E NC and the tidewater area of VA. That often bodes well for eastern MA. Hopefully we see that trend up the coast a bit more in subsequent runs.

Grazes SE areas but really juiced up just east of the coastline from NC to MA.

Slight tick better. I did like seeing the vort try and stay more consolidated longer.

So we’re playing op model musical chairs.

The surface trends are pretty wild , another 4 cycles like that and it looks like it’s AI counterpart

Definitely a better H5 look on 12z euro vs 6z

Op euro expands the qpf field but a light event. Not a whiff

Euro AI shows 1-2" for Jan 18

I like what I see on the current surface maps as this presentation works for DC in the past

Where's @MJO812?! He's being unreasonably quiet.

Yes it’s much lower resolution. 0.25 degrees vs 0.08 for the Op euro

euro has snow in myrtle beach, sc. how anyone on here still convinces themselves that the euro is a good model is truly beyond me

I will say the H5 orientation and amplitude of the shortwave/vortmax of the EC AI looks like the 12z gfs op.

Everyone knows I haven’t been bullish on this one, but it’s honestly close enough to not yet punt on a minor to moderate event. This is a real battle.