All Activity

Per my post from two days ago ITT that analyzed El Niño seasons with <4.3 ACE as of then, I’d be wary that despite the very slow start there likely will be some dangerous activity in some areas late Sept to mid Oct especially if I were a (near) coastal resident.

triggered^

It should be the sixth very strong el nino since 1950. I'm not sure why they didn't put 1972-73 as a VSE, considering it has 3 consecutive +2.0 trimonthlies.

https://www.iroquois.com/pipeline-services/pipeline-map/ Through CT

I can't complain too much about price. Comparing my bill to friends who have oil I'm usually at 50% of their bill and we keep the house fairly warm

Yeah pipelines here too...in fact not enough of them to keep supply and prices lower.

Yep, I don't think anyone is expecting a big winter this year despite what the board idiot thinks. Last 2 were cold and last yr was quite snowy. Take it and run and enjoy the extended outdoors period this year.

It's all an act by a bored person

Maybe some of the western resorts with base elevations above 8,000’. East coast base elevations are generally 1500-2000’ and will be overwhelmed with pacific warmth during prime snow making in November and December. The vast majority of revenue is MLK weekend and prior. 2015 provides a perfect case study in what happens when December is +10. .

This would be the season for it. Water temps in the Mediterranean are astronomical. .

Yeah it's narcissism paired with dementia. And people still act like everything is normal lol. And he's got the launch codes.

I think alot of here is via underground pipeline from points south and west

Wonder if Ginx was on the desk that day ?

Kinda like Joe Rogan. He went straight from college to TWC and probably will retire from there. Don't see that much anymore... 81F/DP 59F

Funny enough my wife and I were down there too when it started raining. Down by the Aquarium and headed to the Chart House for lunch and to dry off!

Huh, thought it was much more than that.

If the STJ is amped all we need is a slight collision with the arctic jet and BOOM we have a phased storm which is what provides the most epic blizzards of all time. I think the signal is there for a record setting winter in the NYC area. Please no one weenie tag me.

I think it’s too conservative. I’ll probably go non-stop Miller A’s with some B’s intermingled. Just wall-to-wall KU events.

Yeah good point / info about the earthquakes. This kind of thing (glacier collapse) seems pretty similar to earthquakes in that there's just no way to know why or when a given one happened at a given time and place - the variables (essentially infinite number of land connection points / stresses) are just too numerous, and basically just not measurable. With meteorology at least the inputs - while still numerous - are actually *measurable*.

Going back in time, BOX seems to have missed the all-day shower activity in their "mostly sunny" forecast. Their 1057Z AFD (when the forecast for the day was "mostly sunny") read: Any lingering showers early this morning dissipate by mid to late morning as an area of subsidence or sinking air moves overhead. The subsidence will also result in a clearing trend through the day. Even the 15Z TAF update: Today: High confidence. SCT-BKN VFR/MVFR ceilings (020-040 bases) continue as of mid- morning, with widely SCT light -SHRA around pushing southward. While showers come to an end shortly, anticipate some lifting of cloud bases closer to VFR levels by afternoon. It was only mid-afternoon (1938Z) that they posted: We`re still governed by broad cyclonic flow aloft around a closed mid/upper low over Nova Scotia, a feature which has moved very little over the last 24 hours. This has led to a mix of clouds and sun, and some heating where clouds have scattered has led to "destructive sunshine" which has blossomed additional cloudiness with scattered pop-up showers moving southward. These clouds and scattered showers will continue through sundown. All in all not a big impact, some people got caught in some showers, no electrical activity, etc. But to say in the 15Z TAF that the showers would be ending shortly when there were certainly some IFR showers in the afternoon, and to completely miss the all-day nature of the weather in general, was interesting.

Yes https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html

Beer?

Its that time of the year. The rapidly shortening days. The cooler weather coming. The excitement of Fall is here. Weather boards are always so focused on the coming winter (and this is coming from the biggest snow weenie there is), but lets not forget Autumn! Fall with its crisp air and color show is an amazing time of year. October is the cant-be-beat month, but September is when the hints begin.

Any ski resorts that struggled the last few cold winters in the Great Lakes/Northeast have no business being in business in the first place.

The warming related to AGW is itself a factor helping to cause 2026-7 to be so much warmer than these prior Ninos since the globe continues to warm. Without that, although 2026-7 would possibly still be the warmest, it at a minimum wouldn’t be as far above these others. In other words, this graph isn’t a fair way to determine the strength of each of these El Niños, themselves, since AGW gives an advantage to later ones.