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Huh?

GFS has something around that time too. Definitely something to watch. If nothing else, it looks like the mountains will get a lot more much needed snow.

18Z UKMET is even further away from the E coast than the 12Z! So, as of now, the UKMET is by a good margin the least threatening for a close pass of the E coast!

At some point a heating climate change has got mean less snow guys Time to eat shit and suck on reality snow does not like warm air if we need to put it in really easy terms It’s especially uneasy for snow if it’s in concurrence with something like a super El Niño. Synergy quotient is both unknown and off the charts. Granted, this latter aspect is sort of uncharted water so we can’t be certain, but from a step back philosophical perspective, you’re talking about a warm state of affairs. And it so kind of follows intuitively that we might be more fucked than not. Just trying to be fair to the reality we’re in There is a pathway to getting more snow based in the fact that we have a negative PDO coupled state in the northern Pacific ; the incongruence between that index mode, and this particular El Niño open some dialogue of intrigue. But in a former forecast framework AccuWeather can’t really go on that. I’d haven’t read their tech discussion; for all we know they could have mentioned a caveat or two in there.

I am just a little surprised at the degree of blocking and amplitude given the very strong El Nino. A strong STJ from the El Nino usually prevents patterns like this (moves things along) and we already saw the STJ quite apparent that impacted Isaias. That was unusually strong STJ trough for the Gulf Coast for early Oct. 12z ECMWF looks like classic omega! What is this, May? I will say this. given the non0-linear nature of the atmosphere and its associated oscillations, something coming in being as the strongest on record (El Nino), unexpected things can and do happen that do not fit "what we thought should happen." I mentioned this before, it was assumed before that in very strong El Nino, Cali gets soaked and the Pac NW is dry. Well the 2015-16 event, the exact opppsite occurred!

From what I have gathered from reading here, if a storm doesn’t exist at the time the long range precipitation forecast was issued, you just back out that precip amount and so on and so forth until you get back to the original forecasted amount. Thereby justifying any emotional attachment you had to said forecast.

The 18Z GFS came well W and is thus the most threatening GFS run yet by far to the E coast with it only 200 miles ESE of Hatteras as its closest! Also, the 18Z Icon has come back W a bit from the 12Z, which itself was less threatening than its 0Z that was coming into the SE. Back to 12Z, the JMA has it for its first time and hits much of the SE solidly with this with much of the Carolinas and S VA getting a very beneficial 2”+ of rain the next 8 days:

So if NY gets like 16 inches, then they would average the average over the last 2 winters. Checks out.

Whatever forms off the east coast next week…better not drift closer to coast, for the sake of that forecast.

18Z GFS is the most threatening GFS yet to the E coast by far with it only 200 miles ESE of Hatteras as its closest! Also, the 18Z Icon has come back W a bit from the 12Z, which itself was less threatening than its 0Z that was coming into the SE. The 12Z JMA has it for its first time and hits the SE US pretty potently with a very beneficial 2”+ for much of the Carolinas and S VA! Edit: 18Z UKMET is even further away from the E coast than the 12Z! So, as of now, the UKMET is by a good margin the least threatening for a close pass of the E coast!

SPAC starting already and well E of the Dateline. TCs well E of the Dateline are common in very strong El Nino years. 92P is easily a TS now from Dvorak classification. That kind of cold nascent CDO over a well-defined LLCC? The microwave from 1630z clearly show good banding and a small core. But not declared by JTWC yet, and only a TD from Fiji. They wait too long in the part of the world for developing TCs I have observed over a long time. Just one example of how it not easy to compare stats basin to basin due to different standards and practices.

OKX AFD afternoon package: Showers and thunderstorm move through late tonight into early Friday morning in association with an approaching warm front. Thereafter, the region will be warm sectored with an approaching cold front to the west, deepening low pressure over northern New England/southeastern Canada, and a positively tilted upper level trough approaching from the west. After the passage of the warm front and ahead of the approaching cold front, winds shift to the SW and increase somewhat during the afternoon, bringing a surge of low level moisture, with dew points rising well into the 60s. Low level convergence along the cold front will allow for the development of low topped showers and thunderstorms that approach the western portion of the forecast area as a well defined squall line (as per most meso scale models) by late afternoon and early evening hours (anywhere from 5 pm to 7 pm, give or take an hour). With ample moisture in place, increasing low level convergence, and MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly for western portions of the area (NE NJ and Lower Hudson Valley). As the line approaches the coast, weakening is expected. However, even in these locations an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. The cold front and weakening squall line should push offshore between 9 pm and 11 pm, but post frontal rain looks to develop thereafter, keeping the chance for showers in the forecast for Long Island and southern CT through most of Friday night, with lesser chances as you head N and W.

18z GFS starting to figure out that there will be a storm off the Carolinas

It's like we gotta treat it almost JV level at this point, right? Not to the degree of it can't be right but just not being able to take it seriously until a certain range?

Gfs (hardly usable at this point) looks like it’s caving towards the euro twins.

I'll take it.

Looks like after the line of storm goes through tomorrow night... there might be some back building of precipitation for the early morning hours.

A fetch that large, with duration that long would create long period energetic swells. Periods over 14 seconds are rare on the east coast (usually only associated with major hurricanes) They can cause major beach erosion in comparison to more typical mid period (10-13) second swells we typically see during east coast coastal storms. So if this comes to fruition it could have major coastal impacts. Especially on the outer banks where several areas are already in trouble. .

Get used to it this winter unfortunately

Both HRRR and NAM show first snows for the mountains this Saturday morning. Considering a hike out there but the soundings seem fishy. Would there even be enough of a layer for precipitation to occur? If so, would any snowflakes even form or would I get to hike in cloudy drizzle? Don't know the answers would love some help from our mets @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx @Eskimo Joe I plan to head out and try and hike early Saturday morning at the Cheat Mountain range at 4200-4400 feet and would love to make sure I don't drive 3 hours to hike in a cold, windy, freezing rain fog.