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Mesoscale Discussion 0804 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 201752Z - 201845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will bring a risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail through this evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate that surface temperatures have warmed into the low 90s F across portion of the Mid-Atlantic. Coupled with mid-60s F dewpoints, this is supporting 500-1000+ J/kg MLCAPE across the area, with further destabilization expected through peak heating this afternoon. Expectation is for ongoing thunderstorm activity across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234 to expand eastward, with additional development also possible along an approaching cold front. 20-30 kts of effective shear will support multicells, and perhaps marginal supercells. Steep low-level lapse rates (8+ C/km per latest objective analysis) and dewpoint depressions of 20-25+ F will promote the potential for damaging wind gusts, especially with any more well-organized clusters that develop. Isolated large hail may also accompany the most robust updrafts. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 05/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40567574 40837554 41157502 41447382 41547334 41607289 41607231 41517205 41297181 41077177 40877191 40667263 40517332 40347368 39997393 39627403 39217449 39127488 39147530 39327557 39787578 40567574 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Storm popped right in top of @EastCoast NPZ

Maybe some compressional heating near the barrier islands. Seeing a 96 and 97 in the Five Towns.

SWO from KWNS

Have some thunder and a little rain currently.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis has an axis of ~2,500 SBCAPE in southern PA. Wonder if the southern edge of that enhanced CAPE might act as a boundary for the northern and western crew later?

Yup. That is the cell I was referring to. Would love to be up in Cascade, MD looking at this from their overlook. One of the prettiest places I've every been.

Greencastle storm looks interesting

Thus far, the best cell of the day appears to be running just north of Mason-Dixon into PA. Consistent CG, tops sustained about 35,000 feet, and now some damage reports coming out as LSRs via CTP.

Watching the stuff to the west of Front Royal/Luray areas for the greater DC area later.

93 at JFK and 95 in Atlantic City. Westerly wind doing it's thing. Dews around 60 so not opressive.

91 in Brightwaters, which is quite impressive given our proximity to the Atlantic. Hottest day here so far note to self: don’t walk 9 miles in this heat. too late

Made it up to 95 at my station.

Winds gusting above 30 mph here with that severe cell moving to my north. That and the overcast are knocking down the heat.

It has begun Severe Thunderstorm Warning MDC001-043-WVC065-201815- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0052.260520T1737Z-260520T1815Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 137 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Washington County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Allegany County in western Maryland... Northeastern Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 215 PM EDT. * At 137 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Barnes Gap, or 10 miles west of Hancock, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Hancock, Berkeley Springs, Pecktonville, Big Pool, Little Orleans, Cherry Run, Lineburg, Spohrs Crossroads, Spruce Pine Hollow, Forest Park, Bellegrove, Sleepy Creek, and Shady Grove. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3972 7829 3972 7801 3962 7802 3962 7803 3961 7804 3964 7843 3971 7842 TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 267DEG 21KT 3967 7837 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Yep. 93 here

We don't need NOAA/NWS and all that silly data. AccuWeather can do it

3rd day in a row 90+

Fish doing my dirty work. Although someone has to tell him the 5 min obs are averaged…not instantaneous.

Is he living off the grid yet?

Delayed but not denied on the heat for LI. 90-95 everywhere except barrier islands.

Late to this……. but lol’d at my boy Fish owning him. Well deserved imho.

yep there's a lag for sure-even in in the winter the saying goes "As the days lengthen the cold strengthens"

Not sure what losing sunlight has to do with anything, when our warmest days aren't until after the solstice. Make that same post on 12/21 about gaining sunlight then lol.