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Around 3/4" in Garwood, central Union County. Rain intensity is variable, sometimes coming down at 50 degree angles, other times not so much. Wind light at times to moderate...

I lied, a small little popup heavy shower over me

They have completely renovated that place and there is a decent restaurant onsite. We ate there last July when we were up. There is a brewery across the street too.

We are at that age where people we watched/listened to when we were young are now 75- 80 plus age group so they will be dropping like flies in the coming days/months/years. (musicians, actors) If I find out about more dead people I will let you know. It should pick up during the holiday season...

27 is nuts. WPAC is just a whole different universe in high end TCs.

Yeah, one outbreak occurred from northeast CO into SW NE and a second from IA southwest into OH (but each were spawned from a separate system). Each person was assigned a different event so I don't know if everyone got a multi-region event or hell, if I even need to focus on both areas but I'm going to anyways. I had initially did my layouts talking about each level and then both regions...but I felt it was leading to a cumbersome mess. So I elected to try going about it doing the analysis separate for each area and it seems to be going much more fluidly.

Isolated cells are a poppin' now.

Wind is crazy in lower Manhattan. I knew it'd be windy, but this is more than I anticipated especially with no wind advisory. Dunno if it's just a localized thing here with the buildings and the water, but it's really overperforming.

Picked up just over an inch so far since 8am. Event total thus far 1.53". Winds blowing here but nothing really noteworthy in my neighborhood. Gusts still in the 25 mph range. Temp. 53. Haven't had a day like this in a loooong time. Have to say it is nice for a change.

Sporting club will open on special occasions a few times per winter…the fishing derby, and a few other times throughout the winter. So if you catch it right, sometimes you can grab a meal and some beverages.

1560

Debouile is all groomed now, so I are all the Trails to Estcourt station. It’s all groomed…and gorgeous.

The torch period in the 20-31 December period is pretty wildly consistent for like 15 years+. Even the few times we've had a chilly Xmas, we've had a really warm day or two the following or preceding week. But yes, I'll take any snow I can get. But some perfect track frontal wave on December 3 is more likely 2" of slop for me, 8" for PSU, and rain for DC whereas 2 weeks later it could be all snow for nearly everyone except DCA.

0.23" in gauge from 7am, making total 1.16" as of this moment. After the past two months, I'll consider it a win.

What elevation are you at up there?

Case studies can tend to have a lot of images to refer to anyway. It doesn’t make sense to me to add the same image twice as different figures. I assume your choice for this study is the point of having two outbreaks at the same time. So it only makes sense to tie each in with the same maps. Otherwise it would feel like 2 different case studies in 1 paper.

Not to clog the thread, but what should I look for on the models when it comes to upslope and snow levels? Is it just 925s and wind direction?

Union county NJ deluge along with 40 mph winds. Over an inch of rain so far.

Great advice! For anyone interested, that last YouTube link is no longer to a livestream. Here’s an updated storm-chaser Jeff P. (with his host) livestream from near Ground Zero. This is from decimated Black River on the coast. Jeff was just saying they need helicopters there ASAP because there are a whole lot of folks who are injured and need to be airlifted to a hospital:

Normal hi/lo at BDL on November 3 is 57/37.

Understood but... The most consistent winter feature in our ---PDO period has been the Xmas torch. The second half of December has been a horror show other than a few notable dry cold periods (including 2017) Of the two "flavors" failure that have dominated recently (SER and Pac Puke), the problem in late December seems to be more Pac Puke. Like clockwork I know somewhere between Dec 5 - 10 a big AK vortex is going to show up on the extended and march toward verification.. Second, a good Nov/early December might not help us, but a bad Nov/early December can surely hurt us. I believe it was 2020-2021 where we had the first extended period of -NAO in a decade and we were all excited, but the preceding November was a +++++++AO cluster and all of NA had no cold air, so the -NAO just blocked in mild a

Perfect, thank you! That's what I was thinking. Not sure why I've been beating myself up about this but I've let it stress me out so much that sometimes I'd come close to getting a panic attack and would get light headed

I work up by you, happy I decided to wfh today. Pouring here currently.

If it’s the same image then yeah, I’d just refer back to the same one.

Just remember the long range models this time of year through November often show nice looking patterns to start December and try to continue them for the entire month. We saw this last year with the strong -EPO forecast from late November into December which reversed in mid to late December. The models completely underestimated the Pacific Jet and flip to +EPO later in December. The EPS weeklies in early December looked great for the whole month. But they kept underestimating the strength of the Pacific Jet. I was discussing this in the threads last December. This could be the case this year if the MJO slows in phase 6-7 later in November into early December and loops back into the circle before emerging into 4-6 by mid or late December. Just something to watch since we have had warm ups every December since 2011 from 16th to the 25th like clockwork. These periods had convection near the MJO 4-6 phases which weren’t very well forecast in advance. Plus even if the MJO wasn’t too amplified in phases 4-6, it would still shift the pattern warmer than the start of the month. There could be a new seasonality to this since the 2nd half of December has been warming at faster rate than early December. I have been discussing this since 2011. Anthony Masiello also made a post about this for his area last December on one of the social media platforms.