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All the really big events share the warmth across the Northern tier states. But the exact location of the warmest departures from month to month and season to season varies from the Upper Plains into the Northeast. The record ridge with the 1877-1878 event parked just north of Minnesota. So the departures up in Canada may have been even higher than MSP. The big story in the East that winter was the lowest snowfall that we have records for at some stations during the 1800s. While it was cold enough to snow in general, the storm track got suppressed by the ridge in December so it was a dry month. In January and February the storm track in NYC was too warm for much snow and the big storms were mostly rain. So NYC finished only 8.1” that winter when the average from the 1840s into the 1870s was close to 40” in that much colder climate. So the actual variations within the larger theme this winter will emerge from month to month. At this point we know the strength of the event in the Pacific is the strongest that we have experienced in 150 years. There are currently +10 departures showing up beneath the surface. With the event already producing departures at the surface far ahead of anything that we have experienced in August.

Wow. Today looks like a fun weather day. There's a wall of water headed towards the area already this morning. There's not much lightning with it. Might be a fun batch to do a morning rain hike.

Had a brief shower....wall of heavy rain moving thru WV heading this way. WB 6Z RRFS.

Thankfully stayed out of the 50’s. 60.2 for the low as drew come back today thru Thursday

Down to a nice 54F this am, looks like heavier rain shifted south for tonight.

This current WWB looking pretty impressive. This isn't even the anomalies, these are the actual zonal winds.

Got down to 49.. feels great!

A PDS is currently out for the ongoing flooding emergency:

I post everything. And no one else has a problem with that except you. Get a life. You are a JACKASS .

Radar coverage for the eastern half of the island is down at present. Unfortunately, a strong backside circulation feeder band with enhanced southerly flow is aligned and curving upslope right over the Big Island. Radar would most likely show an ongoing firehouse if it were still operational. You will notice the lightning showing where the deepest cells are likely training under the deepest convection.

I am not confident we will see substantial ACE accrued in the Atlantic Basin this year. We may get a TC that finds its way into the right synoptic pattern at the right time to become a hurricane, regardless of land threat, but I do not forsee any long tracking systems remaining powerful for a duration that would stack ACE points. There will just be too much airmass expanding away from the Pacific from the mid-to-upper levels shearing off whatever might develop in the Atlantic MDR.

Crazy total rain accumulations have occurred over the eastward facing volcanic slopes of Kilauea and Mauna Loa massifs. Not unexpected, but hopefully more populated residential areas have avoided high water this morning.

As of Saturday, 6.56" for the month so far, now currently the 7th wettest August on record.Top 10 Wettest Augusts (KDAY)1. 8.03" - 19742. 7.95" - 19793. 7.54" - 19954. 6.98" - 19785. 6.64" - 19126. 6.59" - 19267. 6.56" - 2026 (as of 8/15) 8. 6.42" - 19829. 6.40" - 200110. 5.56" - 1906

Sorry to grave dig but just saw this. We only received a few sleet pellets from this event, but in June of last year (June 22, 2025) we received about half an inch of snow that the local recording station appears to measured as a Trace. Typically we get snowflakes most Junes and Septembers, although it often doesn't stick.

Seems that the MCS in Ohio is doing rather well with the 0z NAM initializing it correctly. Should roll through around mid-morning and bring some nice rainfall/storms with it. The soundings for the afternoon are impressive kinematically but lack instability despite our 70 degree dewpoints. I think it'll be a day where if a cell manages to pop ahead of the evening/nighttime line of storms it could produce a TOR. Only question is if/how many will happen.

lol I should go chasing