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Yep I agree also Tyler. That stuff would stick around forever.

12z was relatively unchanged. Looks like 13z acknowledges the major shift in modeling.

1.25” qpf across most of SNE. if ratios are a little better than 10:1, that’s a solid 10-15”

CMC solution is not what i expected. Still a great event, but not as clean. Sharper trough axis it shows is likely culprit. CAD is strong on ALL models, so I'd think if this would verify, itd be sleet below MD line Huhh

Brining 64 east of Raleigh

I just realized his tweet was 2 hours ago before the last run. My bad .

We still have 3 more days of this madness! lol Just let happen whatever is gonna happen!

According to pivotal maps its alot of sleet

CMC:

CMC drives the primary up to Erie, that's why. Scranton will flip to IP if that's the case.

Ya, No one wants the 3X World Champion Accordionist who travels the world performing & is a companion of our beloved 98.5 SportsHub and a Motorsports historian who writes for Car Magazines & who’s one of the only FreeSledders in the world with his own Sledding Minoan which might be the only one in the world and who wrote articles on Weather Statistics at 16 for Accuweather and created the Official 2005 Hurricane Records List & does Guinness World Records with Mario Andretti & who opened the 2024 Election on Worldwide TV with the National Anthem. God No, we don’t want Him to be part of our weather world banter because he posts too loudly since he’s Italian and gets screwed on snowstorms all the time.

Need a fee more.

Current NWS Blend

Appears the trend has been to amp the storm earlier, now we need to root for a GFS like transfer south of our latitude. Primary into Pittsburgh is guaranteed sleet for us southern folks.

I believe Brad Panovich called that the "glacier solution" which is a perfect descriptor of what 1-2" snow, 3-5" sleet and a half inch of ice would create.

This could easily be just ebb and low the model...but the onset for the GEM has more snow north of I-40. The GEM is for sure south by a tick until it cuts after hour 87.

Here on the Vineyard, we still have rare coverage on the ground. I just went outside and wrote "James" in the snow, surrounded by a heart. He'll see it. It's Happening, James

3z Tuesday its still snowing on the CMC................

One of the things I always looked at when modeling became a thing was Chicago. If the snow shield was shown making it to Chicago our area was cooked. I know it's overly simplistic, but that's where we are.

And the way I understand it it is basically one run behind Op models.

This is incredibly eloquent and well-written. As always, @North Balti Zen - great post! I think @bncho's ceiling is certainly so much higher than folks like me - just gotta get past the "growing pains" part of an AmericanWx user/weather enthusiast

Cmc brings everyone back down to earth . Lord I hope the CMC is an outlier

The CMC is not a disaster... we don't like the trend but you'd think it just gave us 0" and not a forum-wide 8-12"+