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usually takes til mid June to get out of that season

Wet in the central plains, and southeast with the cut off low near Northern FL, GA, and the Carolinas this week, storms from the slow front get our area closer to the >1 inch Fri-Sat.

Current high temp forecast for mid week is only 85F now. We'll see. I imagine the increased soil moisture helps out somewhat.

Cold front passed through the twin cities last night. Subsidence behind the front is bringing the smoke to ground level. The upper flow pattern had been out of the NW to my understanding. It’s a pretty thin band of surface level smoke. Western and Central Minnesota are already seeing improvements.

Not really. Here are the high end el ninos (+1.5) since 1949-50 (bold are the very strong ones +2): 1957-58 (temperature jump: no) 1965-66 (temperature jump: no) 1972-73 (temperature jump: maybe) 1982-83 (temperature jump: yes) 1986-88 (temperature jump: yes) 1991-92 (temperature jump: no, but due to Mt. Pinatubo) 1997-98 (temperature jump: yes) 2009-10 (temperature jump: no, but 2010 was the warmest year on record at that point) 2015-16 (temperature jump: yes) 2023-24 (temperature jump: yes) The gap between strong el ninos seem uniform (although there was a higher frequency in the 80s and 90s, due to the +PDO period), and the gap between super el ninos is actually increasing (10 between 72-73 and 82-83, 15 between 82-83 and 97-98, and 18 between 97-98 and 15-16. We are currently at 9 and counting since 15-16.)

does anyone have any insight/knowledge into specifically modeling accuracy for smoke ?

Ugh. As we all know once droopy cutoff low season starts it can be impossible to get rid of.

Yes, but it was more widespread in that system because it was occluded, so there was just narrow area near the coast that got creamed under the low level deformation.

Was just walking my pup in my yard and I see this huge black bear wander 100 feet away, eating bread my wife threw out for the birds. It went over the wall and is taking a snooze, waiting for him to get up so I can take a pic.

It's awfully nice out right now. I'm being totally lazy and just puttering around the garden rather than working. Looks like we're getting really lucky with the smoke so that's nice

Thats awesome. Ive ran across some others who keep personal records. So cool to have us snow weenies that do that. If I am out of town and its going to snow, I have a standby observer for me too lol.

I can gladly say I dont remember 1982-83, as my mom was pregnant with me haha. But I will say for as much as I dog on 1995-96, at face value 1982-83 was absolutely a much shittier winter. It could have easily been the least snowy winter of all-time (just 9" thru 3/19) but heavy spring snow let us finish at a still terrible 20". But the fact that most of winter was bare after a 64F Christmas is just disgusting. But the winter of 1995-96 was a cold winter with a parade of storms all around us, whereas 1982-83 seemed more like a mild winter with 1 great storm in the east. 1995-96 was the definition of screw zone, but SE MI really hasnt had a screwzone winter since, so I guess its better to let it all out at once (by screwzone I mean how we performed compared to nearby areas).

We are starting to lessen the negative temp anomalies in the East, of the note the NW US really starts to heat up, as the PNA starts to rebound. .

Heavy sigh** Great

By the way, 1993-94 was definitely a solid winter here. I was quite young (10) so I remember only bits and pieces. It had a 10" snowstorm in Jan and 2-storms of 6" in Feb, plus the coldest day of the 20th century at Detroit (Jan 19th, high -4F, low -20F). It was certainly one of the best winters of the 1990s, but between my young age and the fact that there were just too many good 2000s/2010s winters, that even if i let it leapfrog 1998-99 as best winter of the '90s and allow for not remembering it all, it could still be no higher than #10 on my alltime list (and possibly lower), whereas I know its one of the favorites on the east coast.

I dipped to 52 degrees, it felt refreshing. Though there was a lot of dew.

When I was a teenager in Central PA in the early 00s there was a a summer where we had really bad Canadian wildfire smoke - I think it was 2002. Here's an old paywalled news story about it: https://www.morningjournal.com/2002/07/08/smoke-from-canada-forest-fires-blankets-northeastern-states/ I agree with you and @WxUSAF that it seems to be more frequent post 2020. There is an interesting branch of climate research that deals with this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrocene

EPS a couple days later, but decent signal this far out. Nice trough out west to help break off heat from the Plains.

While the pattern is warming up from late May, it’s still staying wet. So even though the temperatures are above average, the high end potential is limited. Would need to see things really dry out for major mid 90s to around 100° as the month progresses.

@Damage In Tolland

Quintessential June morning. 66° and the last of the trees are blooming. Hard to beat a nice June day.

I started to measure at age 9 back in 87/88. My first year was incomplete, so I used Rutgers data since the college was partly in my town. My older brother was big into weather and even went to college for it, so we were both little snow weenies from an early age. My first 4 seasons measuring all pretty much stunk, 12.5, 17, 20 and 15". Once I was married and moved, I only moved about 14 miles west, so the data is similar. Though, if I had moved to where I am now, Boxing Day here was only 7" and 14 miles east where I was was 24". I would have flipped out! But that goes to show you, using one location and using blanket statements like the whole area is in a new climate is just not the way to go all the time and doesn't tell the whole story.

another comfortably cool day low dewpoint feel nice...i am still wearing my hoodie..

Who lives there?

52 was my overnight low, already up to 68 at 9:15am. MU already honking about severe weather at the end of the week.