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Quickly catching up, haven't been able to post today... Not sure what to make of the 18z NAM… 18z ICON, RGEM, and GFS held relatively steady in terms of thermals, and Jan 23 19z NBM so far has not flinched though I’m not sure if these models make it in the blend (I do not take these NBM forecasts literally): So we watch for elevated warming nipping at south coast and beyond but remain skeptical unless further support. At worst, looks like heavy thump followed by light sleet / dryslot after bulk of accumulation. More definite takeaway from 12z-18z suite today is less promising coastal cyclogenesis CCB potential for Monday. By 18z Monday, flow at 925-850 becomes more northerly and dries out (corresponding to closing lows further northeast) on all guidance, whereas in prior runs (again, 0z ICON from 1/22 being the best depiction were easterly (with closed 925-850 low south of LI). 60+ hrs out, that’s still in play, but it’s looking less likely.

18z and still no cave? Papers are going to be written about this…

Sitting at 33 degrees while State College is at 18 and falling. This front is serious stuff. Farther west is in single digits.

I know where you got the fear DNA from

kinda skips around over us....it'll change

What are the odds of some thunder snow and lightning?

RAP has about 3 hours of snow for Wake before turning to sleet and then going back and forth with freezing rain and sleet.

Nam and gfs are both outliers in opposite ends of the spectrum. If you average them they cancel out and you get a decent solution.

There’s going to be a 6-8hr window where rates are at least 1” per hour. From about 15z to 00z.

This is correct. Wildly consistent

I think there’s definitely a path. Hard to nail down that warm tongue and air temps are very cold. I personally think it was an off run from the NAM. If it does that again tonight and we see some trending, then I’ll worry.

One of these right into your face ?

Given the topo, placement of normal CAD/wind direction, the attendant high(s) (apparently the high is going to split), spotty/showery initial nature of the precip, plus DPs/temps- latest NAM finally looks to be picking some granularity ....

more like 10-12" using liquid for immediate DC metro. we get dry slotted a bit .7 at 12:1 .7 at 3:1

LI is always on a razors edge. The warm nose never fails-it has hindered many a storm. Very rarely do we have storms on LI that do not get the warm nose

I think 8-12 in portland and southern maine is going to bust as well.

This is utterly wild.

Updated. Better: GFS RGEM HRDPS Worse: NAM RRFS ICON Held: GFSAI

GFS trying to bring the midweek snowshowers it seems

Warmer runs you can see the STJ pumping a little harder which helps keep primary a tad more juiced and hangin on longer. Thats my take anyways. GFS really is the best way to win this one and verbatim HH was a tough better once coastal pops as column cools and we are once again safe vertically speakin. With Euro still hangin on as well, I'll roll the dice w/ GFS Euro combo and any B teamers that wanna join in.

I definitely think we pound heavy snow for a while on Sun morning/afternoon. That's a ton of moisture coming north and being lifted.

@Scraff consuming this for HH