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Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. Temperatures will top out in the lower 80s. The warmer spots could see some middle and perhaps upper 80s. Cooler air will return for the weekend with another warmup possible starting early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was +4.40 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.972 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.3° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I went to the BigE today.. I don't miss living in that area at all ..

Well at least as a naked swirl, we can tell it has a closed circulation...... Still a lot of dry air in the area around TS Gabrielle.

End of next week looks wet on WB AI ensemble.

Records: Highs: EWR: 90 (1992) NYC: 91 (1891) LGA: 89 (1965) JFK: 90 (1965) Lows: EWR: 42 (1937) NYC: 44 (1990) LGA: 49 (1990) JFK: 46 (1961) Historical: 1752: The hurricane of 1752 was one of the most devastating in the history of Charleston, SC. Although the number of fatalities could not be determined, a contemporary Boston press report, based on a ship officer's account, estimated that 95 people drowned. The destruction of trees was severe. One plantation owner's loss was assessed at $50,000. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1816: A tropical storm affected Virginia before moving northeast into New York. Heavy rains caused the James river in Richmond to rise only an inch or two lower than the High Fresh of 1814. Flood waters invaded the first floors of area homes. One bridge was submerged, cutting off travel (Chapman). (Ref. for Tropical Storm of 1816) 1886: A tornado moved along the Des Plaines River in northeast Illinois, hitting the city of Joliet. The tornado destroyed 20 homes, 10 barns, two factories, and a grain elevator; a bridge was moved intact for two blocks. 20 people were injured, but the loud roar of the approaching tornado allowed residents time to take shelter, so no one was killed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1926 - The great ""Miami Hurricane"" produced winds reaching 138 mph which drove ocean waters into the Biscayne Bay drowning 135 persons. The eye of the hurricane passed over Miami, at which time the barometric pressure reached 27.61 inches. Tides up to twelve feet high accompanied the hurricane, which claimed a total of 372 lives. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1933: The September 17th and 18th storm gave 13.27 inches of rain at Provincetown, MA causing severe flooding! (Ref. Notable New England Hurricanes) 1936: A passing hurricane did heavy damage in Salisbury Maryland and gave 4.61 inches of rain in Washington, DC and Baltimore received only a trace of rain. 1936 Hurricane Track - Weather Underground 1941: A remarkable aurora borealis or "northern lights" was observed as far south as north Florida on this night and the 19th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1971: A brush fire at Lake Alexander, MN in Morrison County started a 10-foot wide, 50-foot high "fire whirl." It moved out over the lake, overturned a 1,800 pound pontoon boat, and then dissipated as it moved back to shore. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1950: Hail covered the ground to a depth of 2 inches at Phoenix, AZ. Damage was extensive at the airport, where 22 planes were destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1978: Parts of the northern Rockies received some early season snow. 21 inches of snow fell at Red Lodge, MT reported 21 inches. Lesser amounts fell at lower elevations. Joliet, MT received 1.5 inches and Billings, MT received a trace. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in northern Texas produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Sulphur Springs, and 2.50 inches of rain in one hour at Commerce, which caused widespread street flooding. Bonham TX received 4.50 inches of rain which also resulted in widespread street flooding as Pig Branch overflowed its banks. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A strong cold front produced severe thunderstorms in the north central U.S. High winds behind the cold front gusted to 92 mph at Fort Collins CO, and up to a foot of snow blanketed the mountains of Montana, with seven inches reported at Great Falls. High winds in Colorado caused three million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Hugo hit Puerto Rico, producing wind gusts to 92 mph at San Juan, and wind gusts to 120 mph at Roosevelt Roads. Hugo produced a storm surge of four to six feet, and northeastern sections of the island were deluged with more than ten inches of rain. Hugo claimed the lives of a dozen persons in Puerto Rico, and caused a bilion dollars damage, including 100 million dollars damage to crops. Thunderstorms representing what remained of Hurricane Octave continued to bring heavy rain to the valleys of northern California. Heavier 24 hour rainfall totals included 3.15 inches at Redding, and 2.66 inches at Red Bluff. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: 2.4 inches of snow fell at Duluth, MN to set not only a new record daily snowfall but also a new record total for September. The previous record snowfall for September was 1.5 inches set back in 1908. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2003: Hurricane Isabel made landfall along the Outer Banks of North Carolina with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph and a minimum central pressure of 956 millibars or 28.23 inches of mercury. The greatest impacts were felt in North Carolina and Virginia. Hurricane Isabel gave Annandale - Barcroft Hills Weather Center a 41 mph wind gust today at 1603 which was the highest wind ever recorded for September at this station.

Low of 62, high of 81. Dew point climbed to 70 today so it did feel a bit more humid.

You have a special room in the basement for that

.92 at since 8/1 at the closest station to me. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KVTNORWI10/graph/2025-07-1/2025-07-1/monthly 1.76 since we had a big storm on 7/10.

81.3 in Muttontown & 81.1 in Syosset for the high.

Summer's last gasp coming up this weekend and next week? I think so. LR ext modeling and general ensembles depict BN heights dropping into the Aleutians. That should pop a ridge out West, and goodbye summer heat. But before we get there, it is gonna get HOT. Early October should feature a full blown transition to generally normal to BN temps.

We moist here. 3” MTD for a lot of the area.

83

560 WTNT42 KNHC 182053 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Thu Sep 18 2025 Gabrielle continues to fight off strong westerly vertical wind shear and significant dry air entrainment this afternoon. Some thunderstorms have blossomed on the storm's eastern flank, which is an improvement from its naked low-level swirl earlier this morning. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on recent scatterometer data of at least 40 kt and little in the way of change to its structure from earlier this morning. Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for another day or so, meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its current intensity or weaken slightly during that time. Recent 12Z guidance indicates vertical wind shear relaxes and an increasingly moist vertical profile should foster a much improved environment for strengthening this weekend, with the GFS model trending toward the more conducive ECMWF solution. As a result, intensity guidance is notable higher on this cycle. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, but not as high as the model consensus mostly due to continuity. There are a growing number of hurricane models that are indicating Gabrielle could approach major hurricane strength after the weekend. Gabrielle is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt and should maintain this track with a bend toward the northwest over the next few days as the storm is steered primarily by a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A turn toward the north and northeast is forecast to occur late this weekend and early next week when Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge and a frontal system approaches from the west. While the guidance envelope has shrunk on this forecast cycle, there are some significant speed differences, with the ECMWF/GFS models considerably faster than the Google Deep Mind ensemble. Although no significant changes to the forecast were made, confidence remains on the lower side given the along-track model spread and an unclear intensity forecast beyond 48 hours. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 20.8N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 21.5N 54.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 22.6N 56.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 23.9N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 25.3N 59.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 27.1N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 29.0N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 33.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 39.0N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

And even this weekend will be at or just below average.

Hit a high of 92 today, with a low of 67. 92 in September feels a lot different than 92 in August. More heat for us in southern ATL area. Great time of year! Pool in the afternoon, and football/MLB out back when the sun goes down. Loviing life down here in the South, well other than the lack of rain in the summer. Don't miss NY weather at all

84 degrees here right now. Mid 80s again tomorrow, and I think we'll see mid 80s again on Tuesday. Still some nice warm summery days ahead.

The hundredth shy is just Stein slapping you right in the face. Brutal.

In W MA it’s a 30 minute drive from normal to moderate drought. Crazy gradient with regards to rainfall the past month or so.

Will be intersting to see if Walpack, NJ actually has a colder August monthly minimum temperature than September. They made it down to 37° on 8-31. The lowest so far this month has been 38°. After some cooler temperatures this weekend the pattern warms up again next week. Walpack NJ 2025-08-31 Mesonet 79 37 Walpack NJ 2025-09-09 Mesonet 75 38

2.1" here. +1

In most cases I wouldn't even think twice about the Euro AI showing a system developing in the Western Carribean at Day 11, but it is interesting to note that both the Google Deep Mind GenCast and regular Google Deep Mind ensemble are highlighting TC genesis in the same location and time, and then tracking into the Gulf. What are the AI models picking up on (or not) that the physics-based deterministic aren't? And to note, even the NHC is using the Google DM in their official forecasts. It has done very well this season.

Locally (Greenville, N.C.) it's been a strange summer too. With 22 days of below normal temps the high for August was a mere 91F. If not for that long stretch of brutal humidity in the first half of the month it would have been perfectly enjoyable. September so far has been remarkably cool and better yet, no problems with humidity. Our summer "died" much like the hurricane season.

lol, Nope.

fixed it