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The GFS hinted at some remnant EML advection perhaps on Thursday as well - but we all know that can change with shorter leads.
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Let's lock in the GFS after day 6
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Not a cloud in the sky and hot AF here. I see i went from 70% chance last night of rain Wed to now 60% and a degree got tacked onto both Thur and Fri high temps. Things never change out here.
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Just finished my car. It had over a week of dust from the foundation waterproofer redoing our front yard. I don't even recognize my car now.
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NAM is really aggressive with an expansive EML advecting into the region. GFS not so much. A little nervous on this because the NAM tends to overdo these, however, you throw an EML in Thursday with a shortwave trough moving through and there will be some severe storms. Lots of details to iron out these next few days!
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
high risk replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah, instability looks good at the end of the week. Thursday has enough deep layer shear to perhaps make it an interesting day for many. The flow Friday looks weak which would support very isolated severe. I'm *very* intrigued by multiple ensemble systems showing potential for deep trough to our west next week.- 437 replies
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
RedSky replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Detailed Forecast This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 79. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 54. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. -
Junorch obs and discussion 2026
Damage In Tolland replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Stein https://x.com/nwsnerfc/status/2064022127834026337?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg -
Says the guy mainlining digital blue...
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Roadtrip to Binghamton?
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What's this talk about NYC hitting over 100 degrees by Friday??
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Could be here. Probably be evening though but can’t rule out afternoon stuff, especially west
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If we get the rain that is predicted over the next 10 days, the ATL area in general should be almost out of the drought. I sure hope everyone to our East and north East of us can cash in on some of this tropical moisture.
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Maybe WNE for Thursday, otherwise meh.
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Maritime influence
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Overcast with noon sprinkles in Columbia, 71°.
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Do you have this map for other states in the SE? TIA
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Wife Appreciation Day just before the Fall Equinox looks unsettled with some energy moving through the sub. Ok husbands, you know what to do today (I hope).
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Reggie might be fun though
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Midwest im guessing.. nothing seems interesting here
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Thanks, Chris -Long range model winter forecasts have, indeed, tended to be too cold on average based on my recollection although the Euro has missed on both sides. So, I wouldn’t be shocked if 25-6 also comes in warmer than today’s forecast, but that remains to be seen. -But keep in mind that you essentially are showing a super Nino sample size of just one (2015-6 done in August) since 2023-4 wasn’t a true super (RONI peaked at only +1.49). ONI had ~0.5C excess due to very warm surrounding tropical waters from GW inflating the ONI. -Also, other super Ninos had a fairly similar temp. pattern to what the NMME shows overall.
