All Activity

MIDNIGHT Monday HRRR keeps giving. Looking good.

If the NAM is right, you'll probably need to shovel sleet twice to avoid throwing your back out lol.

Bring the juice. Sling it up and in and don’t stop.

Nam is perilously close to a ton of sleet for most of CT/RI/SE Mass.

This is one of those where josh could get 8 inches, while my backyard gets a dusting.

Sleet goes all the way up to NNJ. Nam might be too fast. Sometimes it has these wonky runs the day before. If this is correct its only a 4-8 inches snowstorm before heavy sleet.

What popped in my mind is a "clash of the titans". If iy snows hard enough and the cold air clashes with the warm nose, it could get convective and maybe even produce "thundersnow". It seems all these signals for a big "thump to sleet" suggests some high in/hr before a changeover.

Sweet. Lets get 3” of sleet

FV3 still one to hang on to but it came down a bit with snow totals (except NW crew) all the same. 8-9 for the metros on kuchera vs 10-11 last run.

There is less than a quarter inch of precip from changeover at 12z to 18z for many of us.

24 hours ago we were debating if ice would make it to the PA line...now it's closer to the NY line

Spending the weekend here in the Berkshires, currently -5 here, 9 above back home in HPN.

NWS says the last 3/4 to an inch will be above freezing cold rain in Raleigh

Last call. Zero changes to the map from yesterday afternoon. Let's see how it goes...

It is.

May be 4-6" of snow on the nam but it is also like 2-4" sleet which is worse impacts.

As expected, the storm is ahead of schedule.

There isn’t a lot of science in kuchera. It’s just based on the premise that the colder the max temp in the column is, the higher the ratio will be. But there’s a point where it goes too far the other end…especially in a setup like this where the low levels are so cold. It sorta assumes normal lapse rates in a storm and not something inverted. Usually a temp of 15-20° is a sweetspot here for mid level temps in the DGZ. But if the column is sitting at 5° or colder all the way up it just keeps assuming ratios are getting higher and higher. -18°C in the growth zone is the bottom limit for dendritic crystal habit. -20°C and colder you start getting bullets that are small and accumulate more densely. Yet if you look at the estimated kuchera ratios in Canada with -30C throughout the column it tries to paint 50:1.

Call in real jeopardy now

No expert, but looks too big to be a house cat. I have seen a ton of bobcats down here over the past year, including a family that lives right next to my office building in a small area of woods

Im sorry but rates that high as the NAM is showing the changeover is way to aggressive!

Here's the HRRR's total snowfall map using the model's own assessment of the snow-liquid ratio:

WB 3K NAM also looks to dry slot with a period of freezing drizzle/ sleet by Sunday afternoon.

3k as bad as 12k....maybe worse if you can believe it. And I know you can!