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currently 36/28, occasional north breeze

So this is NOT our moment

All overnight ensembles still have it so we are good for now

Gfs is still a miss but the icon, nam and rgem shifted more to the northwest. Euro up next. Plenty of time for shifts

Always... well usually.

Bleh, this sucks. Get ready for the cutters

35F currently in E CT, and very slippery outside. We got about .17” of rain

So now Saturday night into Sunday. Little to no snow. We've all been part of this song-and-dance before we have all this damn cold weather. And nothing to show for it, except little dusting here and there people will say it's too early. It's still early in the year. It's too early in the winter. And then what happens? We get a warm up and nothing happens after that. And now there's signals for a wawarml

Couple days of cad and then we go Oregon mode until at least January Hot start will be a distant memory

Got a dusting of snow, had a couple of decent showers. 31 degrees.

6z GFS is a clean whiff. On to 12/21?

6 NAM is meh for all

WB 6Z 12K NAM for Sunday.

I will take the Euro/NAM combo for an inch of snow on top of our snowpack. I will take pictures for you!

New York City finished December 1-10 with a mean temperature of 34.1F (1.2C). That was the coldest first 10 days of December since 2007 and sixth coldest since 2000. A quick look at the guidance shows that a light snow event (probably 1"-3") across the New York City area is likely on Sunday. Given how snow events have been challenging to come by in recent years, to some it might seem like a big event. Even the previously bone-dry NBM shows 0.12" QPF.

The pattern looks messy, but there’s still time for shifts. One good storm can flip the mood fast, so I’m not giving up hope yet.

Doesn’t get much better than the 0z euro / cmc combo for the I-95 metro corridor

Euro 1-3" north to south All guidance shifting south

It’s even more pronounced on the other globals. Especially on the GFS, which doesn’t have a snowflake make it east of I-99. GFS is probably on the far end of that side of the spectrum (and a bit further south with the wave as well), but that shadow off the Alleghenies is probably going to be a thing with this setup. The wave isn’t all that strong and doesn’t have much moisture to work with. Most modeling doesn’t have a closed surface low until this hits the coast, which is why the second snow swath shows up in SE PA and the DC to NYC 95 corridor. Otherwise the wave is running on a westerly flow, which downslopes off the east side of the Alleghenies. The 0z NAM had a more pronounced shortwave as it passes under PA, which made that about the only model to not have the shadow. Other modelling tonight 3z NBM (National Blend of Models) vs NBM v5. The v5 is an updated version of the NBM being tested ahead of being deployed April 2026. 0z Euro

Widespread Snowfall Region wide up to 4 inches BUT these snowfall totals can change in either direction by Sunday...........

Anyone see the Latest Euro?

Maybe the most negative steady trend today is both Euro-AIFS and EPS incrementally pulling away for 4 cycles since 6z today

I think we are out of luck on that. Agreed the trough just is not favorable for much amplification sooner. 30:1 ratios could help. Lol

the angle of the trough also kinda sucks. it barely gets its shit together in time so we get a neutral tilt but if we want it negative then we'd need it to slow down and dive SW

I would like it to get it's act together a lot quicker.. I would take anything though. We have wasted way too much cold.