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Byeeeee

EPS didn’t really move from my early look

We all know where this is going. As much as we hate to admit it, we can see the trend, which is not our friend. Better to accept it now than hold on to fading hopes. 4” of snow and epic ice is still exciting!

Mixing gets to the CT coast on that run. Not liking this trend at all.

Surface temps are not relevant

I love when people tell you they don’t have time to but have time to tell you they don’t

Did any of you see northern lights out of this geomagnetic storm?

Typically the ceiling give or take 1-2" more, But there are other variables in play with duration, Moisture available and cold air.

I'm starting to run out of steam for this one. The changes over the last 48 hours have been almost too much, and even with this massive high and super cold we're still looking to take one squarely on the chin with sleet/freezing rain. Too many headfakes, too. I'm just worn out. Hoping against hope that the new flight data somehow helps us, but at this point I don't think I should be holding my breath.

I think the GEFS was more north than the GFS.

I'm pretty skeptical of the zr output for now. Imo, it would be more sleet than zr. I'll check 18z soundings when they come out but if they aren't much different then 12z I expect much more sleet than the panels posted above

They did, I got a text earlier with it

Even if it only drops 8-10" still a solid total adder considering how this winter has gone so far Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Lived in PG county for 30 years, Ellicott City 20 years, and into my 7th winter in Brunswick. Biggest snow since I've been here looks to be on the doorstep. Once in awhile, the people living 50 miles plus NW of work in DC deserve a big snow storm. Hopefully everyone gets a 10 inch thump before the changeover. Looking at the weeklies, there will be other chances.

You'd think that would result in a less amped storm with those changes at 500.

Nothing we can do about it.

Surprised we didn't see more changes at the surface but I would imagine if that trend continued we will.

I’m also starting to think that the new data from the southern piece may not even change things all that much. Everything comes down to what’s going on over Canada. Hope they ingest data from up there.

I'm not gloomy. I don't expect the Euro to vary its outcome by much from this point forward. Not generally what it does. The ingesting new/better sampled data thing- do you know how many desperate weenies have used that one in this forum over the years? Its in the rule book lol

Welp I’m pulling out, I’ve been down this road before and I’m not going to hit that wall again. I’ll check again tomorrow morning but I’m not holding my breath. I am not saying it won’t snow, but I’m not holding my breath for a large event at this point.

Moderate snow storm to ice and the extreme cold is still awesome I am not being a Deb but that’s how it looks now for dc metro. Of course it can trend back colder but usually it seems like they don’t.

Yeah. I am really concerned for you guys in southern VA. What is being modelled is catastrophic down there.

We knew. However, the actually overrunning portion is beefing up. Still could easily produce a foot

Somebody call Robby from "The Pitt".