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well hell if this doesn't confirm what I just said to Wiz DISCUSSION...Volumetric radar data from KTYX indicate a bow echo with a well-defined rear-inflow jet moving southeast at around 50 kt. Extrapolation of current motion takes the bow echo to the vicinity of Watertown, NY, between 1:00-1:30 PM EDT. Visible satellite imagery shows considerable mid/upper-level cloudiness and some elevated convection ahead of the MCS across the Tug Hill region; however, stronger heating is occurring across the Finger Lakes and far western NY with latest objective analysis indicating MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Persistent westerly low-level flow will advect that more unstable air mass into the region ahead of the MCS. Thing is, these things tend to expand. I may turn right.. not sure, but I could see an outflow arc evolving with growth along it doing that curl and that would probably end up near ORH later this evening.

Wouldn’t doubt it. Very dry mid levels here. Though sometimes these very long lasting MCS/derechos can pull a rabit out of a hat. I’ll take any rain I can get. Spent the morning watering weeping hydrangeas. .

Congrats HRV

I think we're getting clocked ... big wind potential mcs

Destructive tag for the storm throttling Watertown right now.

Makes me sad knowing Sudbury Ontario is getting better MCV’s than us all the way down here

HRRR has it getting into the HV and CT before falling apart

As a Utility worker and weather enthusiast i’m actually excited to feel these high temps. Back home hottest day I think i have experienced was 101 with an index of 115 back in 2012.

That's something!

Will it turn left?

Models did a really nice job highlighting NY today, even back to Thursday/Friday

Severe t storm watch for western NE. As Wiz has said hopefully more will fire east later tonight including “this is a destructive storm” for a warning area is kinda new verbiage to me

As of 6/29, 2026 sea ice area is 7.09 million sq km. This is currently 5th lowest: 2012: -380k 2010: -280k 2019: -170k 2024: -40k 2011: +2k 2020: +4k 2025: +10k Still another day or two before I run the numbers but a new record is nearly ruled out. Top 3 is definitely still on the table.

yeah that complex is going to ride the instability gradient. outflow def could fire stuff up farther east

Probably more for ALB/WNE...can't rule out convection in eastern sections later though.

Right. altho, that version of the GFS was actually demoted by the following spring I think. I thought that was 2017 tho? meh either way. It seems like there was new GFS version ever 18 months between 2015 and 2022

Storms during up in Nwnj moving southeast. Will they stay together as they approach the NYC metro area?

What kind of sea breeze interaction can we see during this stretch? Only reason asking last night its appears one formed and made it down into NE CT judging by radar. After spending 9 years working outside in S FL I was keen to watching the sea breeze develop on radar for indication where storms might start to form.

Aright we’ll see, it will be close. Basically every other station in the 5 boroughs will do it. .

Because New England?

Upgraded to extreme heat warnings for 7/1-7/3, heat advisories for 7/4.

91 feels like 96. Ahhh feels great compared to the next 4 days haha