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I definitely see these as a potential for you to be posting Tuesday morning about how you “ can’t believe” you got 24” lol

I mean it has the FGEN but only bothers to bring it north after we all are sleeting. The HRRR has FGEN more spread out which makes sense imo with this setup and then its real band is right on the snow/sleet line

Damn that's a spicy nw jump on the 18z Nam

Skirting the edge in AGC, is this a DeNAMming

Yikes, not what we wanted to see, but it's the NAM. It giveth and taketh away every cycle.

Your still blue at 18z

Much lower amounts by 21z on this NAM run. It doesn't have as strong of a thump before the change to sleet.

Of course right as I say that, this run is warmer. Sleet profile showing almost 3 inches just to northwest....

I have this weird feeling that Chicago is gonna get a huge march snowstorm or snow blitz that causes a very bookended season and makes for a solid snowier than avg winter despite a lot of zzz for you guys during actual winter.

Primary low looking a little stronger on the 18z Nam?

That’s zonked

I'll be very curious to read ICT's afternoon Forecast Discussion and their thoughts on the 2nd system and it's potential impact on this area.

Both NAM's were colder and better out to 36 hours then went off the rails...once they got into less reliable ranges.

3k is dry af… .4-.5 qpf before the flip even in the favored areas.

Nam looking pretty amped through 51

better snow to the south of us but didn't save it from a mediocre outcome. Only using Kuchera given the chatter about better than 10:1

It leaves all its intense precip way down in the warm sector compared to everything else. To my understanding of WAA and FGEN that's not normal.

early on 3k notably better. Hoping for every panel of blue I can get for lanco.

the run-to-run changes 'under the hood' aloft are fun to watch on any given model. see the nam 12z vs 18z, just as a recent example. really struggling to resolve things.

Still just can't get over .5"/hr 10:1 on the 3k... and D.C. still flips around 9am. With all other guidance saying otherwise I really want to toss. Just can't shake the fact that it's not quite on board yet. What @MillvilleWx said is encouraging, at least.

The C in Miller C = CoastalWx! I seem to recall some time ago, Miller C was for those TCs that phase w/ an intense baroclinic trough (a la Sandy, Agnes, and Hazel). But I wonder that was just a suggestion, as I can find no documentation on it. There is Miller C-E for snow events for the Mid-Atlantic https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm In the Mid-Atlantic In the Miller A description, I don't agree w/ the STJ being weak. A strong STJ is what drives Gulf storm often as there is no PJ involved. One often overlooked classic was March 29. 1984. Blizzard in New England, but other big records set in terms of March heat and tornadoes the previous two days.

The 3K Nam has ~0.35" of QPF in DC before flip to sleet.

The 3km NAM is the worst run so far for DC. Only about 0.3" before the flip. Pronounced warm nose between 750-800mb.