All Activity

we ride

Yeah, Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning was what killed my pack. The 60° days actually did less damage. Backyard is pretty decimated. Front yard still has 5 to 8 inches of snow.

How much will stick?? Combined with 12-20" of concrete and 45mph winds fun times ahead.

Like most here, had varying snow showers, from 3:20 pm to 6 pm, no accumulation. Lowest temperature was 36 F. Did have a neat graupel shower at 9 pm. I never knew that the METAR code for graupel is GS.

Big ninos often are preceded by cooler summers. 1997, 2009 are good examples.

40 / 32 off a low of 26 when just 30 hours prior was 83. Clouds racing in. Near normal through Sunday with a surge of southerly flow on Monday with the Lake cutting storm followed by some heavier rains up to another inch. Beyond there chillier as trough comes between the 18th and 21st with big ridge out west. Back and forth the last week or so of the month but overall warme and perhaps dry.

Looking at your totals for the season, I'm just a bit ahead of you at 78.73" but we missed out on a few that you guys had down there.

Too little too late on the AO/NAO

LevelTen warns of rising PPA prices amid US trade, policy strain – pv magazine International This is even more up to date. Tariffs are mentioned and I'm sure those aren't helping, but the trend was there prior to that. And it does not include the global run up in almost all base materials over the last 1-2yr. There's a lot more supply that needs to be unlocked, but that requires sustained higher prices. This was mostly dismissed for years as there was "plenty enough global reserves to go around and the market would take care of it". Well the market is going to take care of it alright. By taking it right out of your pocket.

The AO and NAO forecasts have lowered since 2 days ago in week 2 based on a day by day comparison. AO today: NAO today: NAO 2 days ago:

Time for spring

It’s going to happen because I have a flight arriving at BWI that evening. But seriously, you all have nailed it: Shear will be off the charts, but early spring setups fail a lot here due to the strength of the system causing widespread showers and clouds.

Yes, too much talk about tail risk of nuclear and a chronic downplay of ECS >4C scenarios up until very very recently.

Euro looks pretty active

12z Icon on drugs

Presuming that you're talking about nuclear - the problem is that there has always been *too much* talk about the tail risk; i.e. blowing out of proportion.

Man, would've been a lot of damage reports if things were leafed out. Glad that isn't the case

Nam and HRRR shifted way north. Wonder if it’s an outlier or a trend. They tend to do this so I’m not gonna believe them until the globals start to show it. .

Interesting. Got a link for that? I didn't realize wind and solar prices had been going up like that. You hear about prices going down, though generally it doesn't include the transmission aspect; which is generally much higher because wind and solar are prevalent in areas where people that use the energy *aren't* as prevalent. As such I've maintained that we're about done picking the solar and wind "low hanging fruit"; this chart appears to show evidence of that.

I mean, you made the point for me here. If we had hedged off w/nuclear (on a scientific, rational basis) we'd be in a much better spot today. But fear won and so did the campaign to offload responsibility onto the individual (e.g. "carbon footprint", "carbon offset" nonsense) and away from capital interests. Label the individual as the "junkie" (Purdue Pharma style, just nicer words) while perpetrating fraud. Sell the fix as cheap and easy and ultimately again, as up to the individual. Ignore the obvious ideological holes. And by god, never ever talk honestly about the tail risk. It was and continues to be a systemic, collective action and thermodynamic problem.

There's professional discussion now of severe weather, making it the whole way up into New England. It also looks to me like a little backside snow could possibly make it into the discussion as we move forward although I haven't heard it mentioned anywhere.

The physics I was referring to is simply energy density. Fossil simply has much, much higher energy density than solar, wind, or hydro. (though a lot less than uranium) As an example of that - the county that I live in has two interestingly-comparable new power plants: 1. A natural gas plant that produces 780 MW of power, on 100 acres of land 2. A solar farm (being built) that will produce 100 MW of power (when the sun peaks), on 800 acres of land When accounting for base load levels - the solar farm will produce roughly 1/250th the amount as the natural gas plant, on a per-acre basis. That's what I mean. (Obviously there's more to it than just acreage-used; that's one example facet) With regards to India - I don't see any "fast track" in that chart you posted. It looks like they're behind to me. They are, however, rapidly catching up in regards to how much CO2 they are emitting, at least compared with the US:

Upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Surprised they pulled the trigger this early. Figured it would happen with the afternoon update. The first concern is heavy snow, with a broad area of 10 to 16 inches likely, and a narrow swath of 15 to 20 inches Totals across portions of western and central Wisconsin could approach 2 feet. The heaviest snow will fall Saturday evening and overnight, with rates of 2 inches per hour possible. Winds will start out of the northeast at 20 to 30 mph.