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Sleepless nights are certain for the rest of this week.

This not going to happen but my weather channel app shows possibly 15”-22”. Lol

2016 was epic. Hard to believe we are right at the 10 year mark about. I live near Short Pump and we had 16 inches. Beautiful Storm

a balmy 14 early this morning

Good analogs to this event synoptically are Feb 2003 and December 2013 with this event producing potentially more QPF and a much colder and denser Arctic airmass entrenched. The H5 pattern is one of the 4 classic setups that gives North Texas significant snow/ice. This will likely be a sleet maker initially with snow on top, and I wouldn't even rule out some freezing rain accretion at start. I do expect the change over to be quicker timing than currently advertised by FWD, probably more late morning early afternoon on Friday. We'll know a lot more when in range of the NAM. Too early to try and call accumulations right now with precip type and phase changes unknown at this range.

Impressive to say the least!

Classic overrunning. There will likely be a finger of precip that pushes out ahead of the main round due to the forcing aloft. When you have a dense cold dome at the surface and a screaming Jetstream at 300mb, it doesn't take much to generate precipitation. Notice it coincides with the surface front screaming in from the parent HP.

Found a -26 in Lind, WI, which is NE of Rush City, MN near the St. Croix river.

The audacity of this place that gives me a check for working expecting me to work on a day like today. Busy morning, but calming down. NAM looks good...now we await the king of models...the ICON

A $5,000 disaster for my trees was November, 2018

The Euro solution isn't necessarily less snowy, it's just slower (at least the 6Z run). There's more to come - possibly much more to come - after 144.

A little off topic here, but I just went over to the mid Atlantic board to see where their heads were at on the storm and let me just say that they were giving nazi-esque vibes with their over moderation. I appreciate this board with 100% sincerity.

NYC is one of the most photogenic spots when it snows.

Ice is often overdone on these models...heavy ZR doesn't accrete well-just runs off.

Green Mountain Freezer aka Green Mountain Flyer. At Jay Peak.

FWIW, WPC is not buying the EURO solution of it phasing and becoming a coastal. That solution "does not have much support form the other physical or AI guidance." Something to watch though.

Yep. Allan is freaking out about this one and that's rare when it comes to these systems. This one could be epic. We're long overdue to be honest.

In a tech free classroom from now till 10:50 good luck to everyone tracking! Someone dm me what the gfs does

Ice cream headaches on the lift, lol

-10's to -20's this morning. -28 near Hoyt Lakes up on the Iron Range is the coldest I can find.

That term is reserved for when the wind criteria is met; accordingly, when the storm-focused thread reaches 100+ pages before the first flake falls, it'll be fine to deploy.

This is storm related but not storm thread material. The Lowes in Kernersville has the heaters and generators stacked up front and they are flying off the shelves. Get one today or risk shivering! Grocery stores will be bombed by tomorrow night.

Low of 9 here. Some of the coldest NJ mins. It reached -1 far NW Sussex County. Lots of blowing snow around here yesterday afternoon into the overnight.

I remember the modeling really hitting the sharp cutoff in the lead up to that event. It pretty much verified just a bit further north. This one is not currently modeled as extreme a cutoff as that event. Another positive that’s already been mentioned is the ratios will help us up here too. So I’ll be trying not to live and die with the QPF output, but will end up doing just that anyway. Will be a long week for sure.

1/2" in Sims and Westfield