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It's uncertain. "Internal climate variability" could concern long-period ocean circulation. Seismic/volcanic activity aren't the only explanation for internal variability. I welcome additional research. Overall, I suspect that anthropogenic and natural variables are contributing, though the anthropogenic one is probably growing relative to the impact of natural variables due to increasing anthropogenic forcing.

Somewhat cooler weather will continue through the remainder of the week. The first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average cooler than normal normal overall. Showers are possible Saturday night as a warm front moves across the region. Sunday will turn warmer with highs reaching the 70s. Additional rain and somewhat cooler conditions will return for Monday. In the long-range, there has been some shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -5.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.040 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.2° (1.0° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Anyone else notice that the freeze a couple weeks back after 90 degree temps ended up damaging and killing some oak and japanese maple leaves that were leafing out Brown and shriveled. Doesnt happen often. Just a cae of bad tining Google says they will releaf but with smaller leaves

Looks like crappy week next week and the we get our flip to summer

total precip was: 1.75" in Fort Collins 1.60" Loveland 2.0" Boulder 1.2" Denver 1.75" Estes Park 0.43" Colorado Springs 0.63" Pueblo 1.0" Cheyenne

looks like it's back to summer

Picked up a nice .78" today. Even heard some thunder.

Thats always "relevant" in his posts lol. Just like the last 2 cold winters we had, global temps wont matter to most next winter, nor will how how strong the nino is. The sensible weather in anyones location is what most of us really care about. So as we get thru summer and towards Fall, it will be interesting to see what you, 40/70 and others who lack a strong bias and have a forecasting background start to think as the winter approaches.

All my snow was gone by midday. It's Colorado so you never know, but, that appears to be the end of any snow chance for the season.

Severe drought for pretty much all of MD except for the western highlands.

You mean its always the same?

A tenth here last night. Like a broken record. Looks like another tenth possible this weekend lol. Getting ridiculous.

I have no official meteorological observation but I sure am glad to experience this slightly training band of moderate rain northeast of CLT.

Amazing there’s no fatalities with a cell that violent. It really was a perfect confluence of ingredients; high SRH, an increasing LLJ, ample space from other storms and plenty of instability.

Windy with a temp down to 53 degrees already.

Of course you are! Nice NW breeze and dryer air as arrived. I ended up with 1.2 inches of rain.

Just had an s tier thunder crack Even the cold shit pattern delivering lapse rate bangers

44 and light rn/fog here in Wolf. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Perfect spring day. No notes.

Yep. 1972 was a good example of a -PDO super El Niño. The -PDO is going to have no limiting effect on this developing super El Niño thanks to the extreme ++PMM that’s in place. In fact, it’s not only helping to kill the trades, enhancing the warming, it’s also working to support the development of an east-based/EP event, as per the research I’ve already shared in this thread a couple of pages ago, explaining how a +PMM favors east-based/EP El Niños

Yea I can still workout in wind pants. I’d like it to be warmer, but the sunshine today is top shelf.

This weather is a Bob Ross painting.

Yes, the low humidity has been fantastic for the lawn. No brown patch or fungus issues with temps and humidity like this.

It’s perfect out there right now!