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I think the point has! Been missed this whole time. . It is fake because it is not a cold airmass. It drops because of low dew points and dry air, just as it warms rapidly . A great example is the desert. It may drip into the 30’s/40’s, but rises to 90’s/100’s. Is that a cold airmass or a hot airmass? No it’s a fake environment in both cases

Today’s 10 day averaged CFS RONI run for Nov has dropped a little to between +2.75 and +2.70. It also suggests that near future 10 day means for Nov will probably drop a little lower since all 8 of the blue lines, the most recent runs, are lower than today’s mean of the 40 lines. It also suggests a similar small drop for Nino 4 and Nino 3 for the same reason. However, unlike the other 3 regions, Nino 1+2’s blue lines are balanced suggesting little near future change upcoming for its Nov forecast mean thus implying a slightly even more E based Nino:

It is exactly apples to apples! Nothing is fake if it’s at your house. If your car battery dies because it is 22 degrees…no matter what the temp is 1500 FT up, is the dead battery fake? Will you be able to tell the battery, hey battery good one, good fake out, now go ahead and start my car? You see, Theres the point. Is the TOR that blew your house down fake, cuz the town next to you didn’t get a TOR? Temp is temp. Snow is snow. Rain is rain. TOR is TOR. If Kevin is shoveling 4”, and I’m seeing through translucent slush that’s a 1/4” inch thick…is his fake snow? And finally…if we tied your bare ass to a tree, and kept you out in the 23 degree cold, all night long, and your nuts were the size of peas when the sun came up, would you call that fake cold, because 1500ft above your head it was 45 degrees? Would that make any difference whatsoever to your frozen ass tied to that tree?

THIS!

A fun October storm before a shit winter

The incompetence watch has been upgraded to a warning.

This is such a weird discussion, lol. No one is saying it’s deep cold. But when your car is frozen solid in the morning and you are scraping ice or warming it up, it’s just a weird way of phrasing it. As Tip said, temperature is temperature. When there’s CAD or icing, no one is like well it’s fake cold because it’s warm at 9,000ft.

94-95 was basically a one hit wonder with an 8-10" in Feb. I remember having my windows open one January evening because we were in the 70's. At least the one-hit wonder in 2016 was a bomb, so I'll hold out weenie hope for that. But terms like "strong, east-based El Nino" don't have me gassing up the snow blower.

Everything I see is fake. Fake cold from radiational cooling, fake snow from upslope or lake effect. Not even sure what’s real anymore.

No surprise coming from the guy who failed out of meteorology school. If stupid could fly, he’d be a jet

https://x.com/MeteoMark/status/2115836527712338188?a=JR30_wRbbVdstqpwhLw&s=19 I don't think Mark understands that a SSW now does not mean the SPV will not recover.

We still have spotted lantern flies fluttering around at work.

fake warmth today .

In recent history it seems like the start of winter has been the kiss of death for the rest of the winter. We gotta take any snow whenever we can get it.

In nyc next weekend- hope it’s dry!

Sandy was 14 years ago today. 14.

Sun disappeared. Also the fog on Rt.23 in Wayne this morning was something else.

What a run we're on.

I don't think that's an apples to apples comparison. I'm just saying when it's 35 for 2 hours on a late October morning with +8-9C 850s, that isn't cold like when you have a truly cold airmass overhead.

Looking at previous El Niño winters, South Bend tends to cash in, in the Spring (yuck). South Bend snow in March and April: 2015-16: 11" 2009-10: 0" 1997-98: 21" 1991-92: 18" 1986-87: 4" 1982-83: 13" 1972-73: 6" 1965-66: 17" 1957-58: 5"

This is just like the strongly E based 1997 was in the first half of Nov, but is unlike the 9 other strong+ Ninos since 1959, which had either neutral or -PNA then.

It's hard to go for much cold with a strong Nino. Even if the SSW were to create strong HLB the strong Nino enhanced Jet may keep the what would be downstream Eastern Trough shunted NE. For the sake of winter weather lover's, let's hope that's not the Case and we get at least a period of wintry wx in what normally would be Nino's warmest Time (late Nov/December). Depending on how fast the Nino fades, we may get lucky late Winter.