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The funniest part of this is that the goalposts move depending on which statistic is inconvenient.When I use mean temperatures, they complain that highs matter more because daytime warmth is what people actually experience. When I use maximum temperatures, they suddenly discover minima and diurnal ranges. There is a method to my madness here. Since the ASOS sensor/shield changes, minimum temperatures appear to be running unusually cool relative to the old observing regime, especially under radiational cooling setups. That means larger diurnal ranges can show up in the data in a way that is not necessarily apples-to-apples with the older record. That is why I have been emphasizing maximum temperatures more recently when it comes to ASOS readings. Highs are more likely to be consistent across the long-term record than minima that are especially sensitive to calm, clear-night radiational cooling and sensor/shield behavior. And, ironically, these unusually large diurnal ranges are the opposite of what you would expect if the signal were simply urban heat island or greenhouse-gas-enhanced nighttime warming. AGW tends to compress diurnal range by warming nights more than days. UHI also tends to show up most strongly in overnight minima. So yes, Detroit had a cold stretch. Nobody is denying that. But calling the winter some kind of grand rebuttal to the broader warmth is absurd. Year-to-date is still above average, March and April were very warm, and warmth has easily won the larger battle. You can cherry-pick January 15 to February 9 all you want. I can also pick March and April. That is why we look at the full context. But the rule cannot be: Mean temps matter when they help you. High temps matter when they help you. Min temps matter when they help you. And everything else is “spin” when it does not.

Maybe meeting a new wife?

Should be a nice and warm day

Now has been upgraded to dual slight now one in the plains and one here in the mid south and south east .

Mine was 7th warmest and 8th driest here in Clifton

It’s still notable that it could end up the warmest SST’s on record in that region. Maybe “strongest” is not the right word in terms of sensible atmospheric forcing.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DY-BOhHuChX/?igsh=MTZweDlmcG9iOTlwcQ==

How’s Saturday look? Have a cookout to go too. Looking forward to getting out of the house with the baby

I'm wondering about the magnitude given to some recent obs. I mean it's not hugely scientific to say this, but it just doesn't feel like it's coming on in any particularly mean looking way. Historic anything in this business, tend to get busy real quick. It's not phenominalogically consistent to speed bump with so WWB's and like below Fwiw, this coarse looking product from CPC shows the sub warm plume as shrinking - not sure that's helping the intent to get this to super, less very strong.

Dog food weather for June 1st

I remember it doing pretty poorly early on before the 23-24 nino. If i remember it had a ‘09-‘10 redux with the canadian and -nao block and broad mid latitude troughing in CONUS.

Wettest May on record with 10.31" for the month (previously 9.05" set in 1995). Washout of a month. Good riddance.

And we’re off…

I can’t speak to winter, but my full expectation given the conditions in the Atlantic is that the strengthening Nino will be even more suppressive than some of the current seasonal predictions.

I'd go ahead and cancel all outdoor plans and go with stable cool/wet weather - it fits the unrelenting persistence to seek out and destroy any free hours that collective civility would have any chance to experience. Don't fight it

Where is Ji? He usually opens an early winter prognostication thread by March. it is time!!!

NYC finished exactly normal for May 48F low

WB June Can. Long range for the winter. Hopefully just cold enough...

Was there a synoptic reason for the relative precip minimum in the northern piedmont and NW coastal plain? During the recent wet period over and over again strong cells would drift SW to NE from SC but they would suddenly start to weaken a sthey went north, leaving us to get crumbs up here. Sometimes the remnant cell would actually actually seem to redeveloped after it moved past. Was that just bad luck?

Warmest meteorological spring in recorded history

Heat and big humidity kick in this weekend, it seems. Also a very, very dry pattern ahead.

Hail falling w/o any rain is quite rare in New England, and the East Coast for that matter, owning to the more moist climate and lack of an EML the vast majority of the time.

So I have a question that someone relates to the June topic. I just posted in the winter form for this upcoming winter as well. I saw a few different posts now from different people saying they're expecting a Modoki El nino for the upcoming summer and winter. From what I'm reading, that gives us a completely opposite effect of a typical super El Nino. Meaning, not as hot of a summer, not as suppressed when it comes to hurricanes, and a colder stormy year pattern for the winter. Figured more people are in this current June discussion topic than they are right now in the winter discussion ( that's been crickets, as it should be )

It didn't cave last year or the year before either fwiw, and did pretty well with the BN temps forecasts.