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Fun NAO stat. The last 2 Ninas that had a monthly Nov NAO reading below -1.0 were 95 and 2010. Hard to say if we notch a -1.0 reading this year but off to a good start anyways. Also, the speed and magnitude of the current AO and NAO drops were missed by the gefs D7 progs and they missed by quite a bit. That's unusual as the 7 day forecasts are usually pretty close. We'll see how it goes but early signs continue to point towards the potential for the front side of winter to be pretty blocky

Wishing you the very best friend!

Thanks. This is what I was looking at directly from ECMWF rather than from WxBell and also this is strictly for Dec 1-21: still no prevailing +PNA Dec 1-7: coldest MW to Rockies vs mainly NN NE/SE Dec 8-14: coldest MW to N Rockies; slightly cold NE; NN SE Dec 15-21: slightly cold NE, NN SE

Currently using 35658 observations from 5253 unique global stations over the past 3 hours. Last Updated: Tue Nov 11 20:31:19 UTC 2025 0 stations reporting wind gusts 70kt or stronger0 stations reporting wind gusts 60-69kt2 stations reporting wind gusts 50-59kt KISP: Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY, United States [51kt, 26m/s] 35 stations reporting wind gusts 40-49kt since Noon today. KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KAOO: Altoona, Altoona-Blair County Airport, PA, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KBWI: Baltimore, MD, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KFRG: Farmingdale, Republic Airport, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KILG: Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KISP: Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KJRB: Manhattan/Wall Street Heliport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KLNS: Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KMIV: Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMTP: Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KORH: Worcester, Worcester Regional Airport, MA, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KPHL: Philadelphia, Philadelphia Intl Arpt, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KPNE: NE Philadelphia, PA, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KPVD: Providence, RI, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KRSP: Campd David, MD, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

See a few stray flakes up here in 21057 will very light returns on radar

No No No... I am only 10 minutes from Fallston, but I am in Baltimore County So good news for me... bad news for @Stormchaserchuck1

45 for a high at 2pm and sun could do no more 10 degrees colder than my previous low max i remember these Arctic fronts blowing thru at this time of year and staying windy all night. Good things usually follow for 45 or so days

Flurrying in Shrewsbury PA

Violently agree.

HRRR with a nice burst of snow tomorrow morning

Today’s Euro Weeklies for Dec 1-21 are still showing consistent strong cold largely avoiding the E and especially SE due to a neutral PNA to -PNA not driving the coldest anomalies far into the SE. The Midwest to N Rockies are where the coldest anomalies remain concentrated.

First flakes of the year in Telford. 38F

Almost got to 50 today. Will be 70s by Thursday/Friday.

Coworker who lives in Hawley Mass just sent me this. He’s at about 1500 feet, sort of on the backside of Berkshire East.

I would say this is at least a few days behind. There are some trees peaking in the triangle now but the main peak has already faded and the winds have resulted in a lot of leaf drop now.

First upslope of the season really singing in Lenox/Pittsfield.

Saw where 1981-82 and 2000-01 are being batted around alot due to similar SST Profiles and PV Strength. 81-82 was a great Winter here. Several Arctic blasts and above avg Snow. 2000-01 was cold but rather dry with below average Snowfall. 1968-69 Analog is also on the Table. Great cold and snowy Winter.

Finally seeing a real snow shower after just some random flurries earlier

There were a LOT of 33s area wide this morning

First flakes and solar storm upgraded to G4 But like clouds clouds clouds and overnight forecast is increasing clouds Tomorrow night however the final solar blast expected to be the strongest a chance there of less clouds

So is death, are you waiting for it with baited breath?