All Activity

As we await the results of October's data for Yellow Medicine County, MN, here is a look at the prevailing trend for the county (population: 10,502) October is the month with the 10th highest (3rd least prevalent) warming trend in the calendar year, behind August and April.

GFS now has snow. Big storm around Castle Rock, light to moderate event closer to Denver. Definitely something to watch.

Shame we don’t live at 10mb

Thanks to all of you for the many suggestions to broaden the studies performed by the team at ChescoWx beyond a single county as we have done for Chester County PA! Based on this feedback we are starting a state by state series to illustrate how the actual historical climate records with a focus on how much the annual average temperatures have been systematically adjusted by NCEI with the launch of the USHCN project back the later 1980's and 1990's. To be transparent at least for Chester County PA which was the original focus of the study the gap between the raw county record and NCEI’s Chester County series, we could only find support for about 1/3 of the Chester County adjustments based on documents we found, roughly another quarter could be the observation-time correction (not settled), and about 40% has no independent check. The actual Chester County climate data showed a slight but clearly not statistical warming trend from 1895 through 2025. While the revised NCEI data showed a clear statistically significant warming trend. If any of you are able to provide detailed support for any of the statistical and methodological data estimates which are what the homogenized NCEI adjustments represent... please provide this detail for these estimates by state if you can - thanks! We are undertaking this study following a just completed detailed review of 48 randomly selected based on similar size counties to Chester County PA. We selected 1 County in each of the 48 continguous US States. The findings in those 48 US Counties were consistent with what we saw here in Chester County PA. We found a clear consistent pattern across all 48 stations across the United States of clear cooling of the past records and general warming adjustments to more recent decades. Below are the consolidated findings and the detail of each of those selected 48 US Counties across the entire United States. Based on that finding (see below) of the share of counties where NCEI's adjusted value is cooler than the raw readings by decade....we will start a state by state review to see how many states show significant warming or not based on both the actual and adjusted NCEI data. First up will be my home state of Pennsylvania! I hope you all enjoy this upcoming study series!!

This is how you establish cross polar flow and turn Canada into an ice box. A crucial first step for legit snow chances in these parts.

First flakes of season late Feb/ early Morch ?

Inject that into my veins

December 6th

Or if we’re lucky, another Dec 5th snowstorm

This is very likely to be smashed this year .

It is a pleasure to see you again.I hope all is well with you

Thats what some people think on here but welcome to the forum.

71 today

because + 12f is not happening the pv will eat into some of the warmth imo making a 12 f month very unlikely also other super ninos such as 72/82 did have warm decembers but they were not 2015 level 2015 is in fact an outlier

Why did it take me so long to see how awful EDC is?

12z Euro appears to go for a prolonged weakening of the polar vortex? Maybe this at least mutes any Torchmas?

oh no it will still be warm the pv wont fully save the ne u.s

A washed up 10 year vet that the Steelers cut. Just what this defense needs!!

Beautiful moon rise right now looking north east.

Another 40° diurnal today. 30F-72F

well the pv is weakeing and will stay weak for 2 weeks so yes your stuff matters for midwinter however i struggle to see how its relevant for decemember?

Well true to form, I've missed several the bigger storms the last few years due to travel and I'm traveling out of the area Tuesday. So it'll snow.

Totally agree. Great time to be outdoors. .

Pretty interesting Youtube video

Agree