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  2. We shall see about the second part of the GFS call, but it nailed the first part.
  3. Wow that line broke up quickly.
  4. I think the threat is subsiding because of upstream convection/cloud cover. There might be some chance in southern and eastern areas but the MCV is holding together quite well and on models with the stronger storm look this afternoon it was already weakening more than it has. Think the main threat is probably eastern NC
  5. PWAT’s are 1.6 to 1.8” with ample moisture on a SW flow.
  6. Hi, I’m the guy it took 2 hours to notice the COD radar hadn’t updated in 6 hours
  7. Ignoring the obvious accidental doxing .. lol but would be cool to see the users mapped out in our region
  8. This is a convective event so there will be winners and losers. I had 2.29” yesterday under that stationary storm in less than an hour. The storms today should be moving but there will be training. Someone is going to see a ridiculous total. Bullseye area looks to be along the I-287 corridor from Morristown up into the LHV.
  9. It’s a very humid pattern from today onwards. Not many 90’s thru early Augdewst.. but daily dews to enjoy
  10. I'm staying conservative here in the valley. Thinking more like 1.5-2" which is fine.
  11. I was hopeful we could sneak in another period of very hot temperatures into the region towards the end of the first week of August but not so confident on that anymore. Seems like the more favorable look is now pushed out into the second week. And when you have to start chasing dates...never usually a good thing, especially when working downhill from peak climo.
  12. This event feels easier to forecast than last Tuesday since energy is more consolidated and its also arriving later and not during the AM.
  13. a bit of personal news. Will be moving to the Twin Cities in August, been busy with all that entails so haven't been able to be on the board much but hoping to be on here again after the move!
  14. Not so sure about that Some of the maps being posted around makes it seem like Noah needs to make another appearance from heaven Great to be getting some of these setups lately. Giving people much needed rain without the concern for significant flooding issues. I know there was the flooding within SW CT last week but these events are perfect to tackle the deficit without cause for major concern
  15. There is still a quite a bit of uncertainty in how the whole thing evolves for sure. I mean if you look at the latest NAM's, there is actually some potential we get enough drying and maybe even some breaks of sun tomorrow (especially in CT) that we could pop isolated thunderstorms with potential for localized damaging wind gust or even a brief tornado. I was thinking the greatest max would be west of here...Hudson into NJ but its possible you may see the max zone be something like northeast CT into northeast MA and southern NH and then a few local maxes elsewhere.
  16. Sounds about right. Don't think anyone is calling for 4" region-wide. There'll be some jackpots for sure.
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