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  2. SnowGoose69
    18Z HRRR not many changes, does move a bit to the RRFS/Hi RES GFS idea the first round 15-18Z may be mostly NYC north but the 22-02z period looks like a strong line of storms
  3. A-L-E-K
    proper torch
  4. sbnwx85
    GFS and NAM keep me in the 60's on Wednesday. Would be v refreshing
  5. OrdIowPitMsp
    0.17” of precipitation from the dying line of convection this morning
  6. Damage In Tolland
    Glad you were able to get out and escape the leftism of New England. Wish we could . This winter it’s entirely possible you get more snow than we do !
  7. OrdIowPitMsp
    Today is the 10th consecutive 90 at MSP, setting a new record. While the daily high temperatures weren’t noteworthy, the duration certainly was. I’d classify this as a historic heatwave around Minnesota.
  8. wncsnow
    Mt Mitchell definitely plays a role. Central McDowell where I live can miss out in this type of flow. We rack up with NE/E or SE flow. And do well in S flow. Anything with a W component is very hit or miss.
  9. SJonesWX
    I recently learned that whole house generators have a life span of around 20 years. a friend has had one for 20+ years, and it recently stopped doing its weekly test run, so he had a guy out to service it. Found a blown fuse, which he replaced. when he fired up the generator, the battery literally exploded. No diagnosis as the unit was well out of warranty and there was no guarantee that they could even figure out what the problem was.
  10. Chicago Storm
    ORD and MDW ended up with 6 90°+ days during this heat wave, all consecutive. ...ORD... July 13th: 93°/69° July 14th: 96°/74° July 15th: 95°/76° July 16th: 91°/75° July 17th: 92°/75° July 18th: 91°/70° ...MDW... July 13th: 92°/69° July 14th: 96°/73° July 15th: 95°/76° July 16th: 91°/78° July 17th: 94°/77° July 18th: 91°/71°
  11. Chicago Storm
    It made it up to 91° at ORD and MDW on Saturday.
  12. Chicago Storm
    It made it up to 91° at ORD and MDW on Saturday. ...2026 90°+ Day Tally... 12 - MDW 11 - ORD 11 - RFD 11 - ARR 10 - PWK 10 - LOT 9 - UGN 8 - DPA
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a good point. This is 2 years after a Solar Max: We know that +AO/NAO is favored +1-5 years after Solar Max. Also, 4/5 Super east-based Nino's have happened during +NAO decadal phase (82-83, 97-98, 15-16, 23-24 -vs- 72,73). This year will make 5/6 Super Nino's happening in +NAO decadal unless we see a 09-10 type -NAO season. Check it out.. 13 February's in a row have had +NAO, and most are >+1.00 NAO! 2014 1.34 2015 1.32 2016 1.58 2017 1.00 2018 1.58 2019 0.29 2020 1.26 2021 0.14 2022 1.68 2023 0.92 2024 1.09 2025 1.60 2026 0.68
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    Probably not. I think we've already seen the worst of the heat. Unlike those years, we've had heat early and often, with 80s as early as March, 90s as early as April, and 100+ earlier this month. I highly doubt we see more 90-degree days in August than in June or July.
  15. sbnwx85
  16. WestMichigan
    That's a picture I didn't need in my head today.
  17. donsutherland1
    Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 231 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-176-178-211000- /O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0005.260721T1200Z-260722T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens- 231 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, including the following areas, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union and southeast New York, including the following areas, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Queens, Richmond (Staten Island) and Southern Queens. * WHEN...From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Average rainfall totals will be between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated totals around 3 to 4 inches possible. Peak rainfall rates in the strongest storms could be near 2.5 inches per hour. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
  18. sbnwx85
    Wow, even if it does happen, my area gets split like a pair of cheap khakis on Chris Farley.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed. Unfortunately, my confidence in SPC has really been shaken since they've changed these outlooks.
  20. snowman19
    Here’s 1997 vs. this year, same time. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline this year sticks out like a sore thumb and like you said, we have record warm water volume this time around. We are about to leave 1997 in the dust….WWBs and DWKWs as far as the eye can see Subsurface: 1+2 SSTs: 3.4 SSTs:
  21. JonClaw
    SPC extended enhanced risk to the NE, close to the metro area now.
  22. Kmlwx
    Double post but deal with it We all need to just consider the outlook meanings as a whole. a severe report within 25 miles of a point can be VERY high confidence especially in highly populated areas where there are now an abundance of spotters and average joes sending reports in.
  23. Kmlwx
    Well I also think exactly what we all thought would happen with the new outlooks this year, has happened. It truly is that with forecasting advances, 45%+ is just not going to be super uncommon anymore. Everything has probably shifted upwards a tier. So 60% may be the new 45%. I think we will continue to see a higher incidence of 45% wind days. It does *not* mean that there will be more outbreak days. We have to sort of re-train our brains at least on the wind side of the outlooks. We used to get super amped for a 45% wind day....that will be like a 30% in the past. Sure - it's better than 15% but it's not like a derecho is coming through. If 2012 evolved in this new outlook scheme - as SPC upgraded that night with the line approaching - we probably would have gotten a 90% prob...
  24. radarman
    Yes in April and we'll see for how long. "Enjoying" low 100s this week, but headed back to the valley and maybe get a beach day on the cape this weekend. We still haven't been as hot as what SNE had been this year, and much less humid and smoky too. Plus the super nino might take some of the sting off missing winter.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts.
  26. Kmlwx
    Nothing new....we probably will really have no idea how it will play out locally until 10am tomorrow or later
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