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Well now it certainly won’t happen. Fantasy

Also some very impressive squall action Sunday… paging @high risk

If the CPC is correct, that would be a good look for cold and would possibly translate over to wintry weather chances. Colder than normal temps at peak climo for second half of January and first week of February is ideal. But it’s also PNA related. A negative PNA will drive trough and cold into west which would lead to heights rising in the east. Most model guidance shows a return to a -PNA towards the end of their range. Whether that moved up in time remains yet to be seen

So far so good.

I agree. I can understand using analogs to a point. But I think JB uses analogs too much, no matter how many different variables there are. He will follow an analog over a cliff if it agrees with his thinking.

Lanning's body language says it all. No hyped up shaking tonight.

Very interesting crash in Natural Gas over the last 4 weeks This is now one of the lowest prices on record for January vs inflation. This is showing probability for a very +NAO for the rest of this Winter, and imo some sign for +NAO next Winter too. CPC continues to predict cold for the Northeast.. will the price rise from $2.63 by Feb 6th? stay tuned... So far the price has not moved up after a cold January forecast call for the Northeast. I went back and analoged it and found a weak East coast, US signal for January vs a very strong Europe signal.. central Europe was like +8F in the mean... it's very NAO-weighted.

Me too!!..Definitely!!!!

Both windows have their flaws, but that's almost always the case with snow chances at our latitude. We need some luck with timing and wave interactions most of the time. It's how we roll. Mid month is pretty close on most recent runs, and a pretty good bet these modeled outcomes are the result of some amount of error wrt wave spacing and timing- still 6 days out.

Praying for you and your family Powell

Ya'll need to see where the 18z GEFS ended its run...nice trend. We saw that once or twice yesterday, and now it's back.

Penn State's loss to Indiana is looking really impressive in hindsight.

laughing my butt off. some funny stuff here tonight. we need a storm....

Very high could mean all the IPAs that have been flowing here this afternoon... I'm looking forward to seeing if this time frame can produce. At least there's something to track at least for now

Prayers for your Mom and family Powell.

"Very high" in terms of confidence that it will snow, or "very high" in terms of the perceived ceiling....

The only time I really ever watched JB videos is when he did "Point, Counter-Point" on AccuWeather. I can't remember the name of the other Met that would do the videos with him. I believe he died at a fairly young age from some sort of ladder accident. Does anyone remember the name of the other met on "Point, CounterPoint". I actually thought that his points were better than JB's.

Agreed. Cold and dry does nothing but cause my bill to go up.

Record high of 55 at 1159 last night and record high of 56 at 1258 this morning. The rare double daily records within an hour

You know that I know that you know that we're going to be tracking the cape storm and it's legit. You can keep being modest now, that's why we love you. But you know that I know that you know.

WB 0Z HRRR much wetter than 18Z. At least some much needed moisture on the way....

Look at @wncsnow being all positive. Maybe it’s some kind of reverse jinx. [emoji16] If the Panthers win tomorrow, I might believe that uncommon, irrational events — like a snowstorm in the foothills — might actually happen again. .

The models are unanimous in progging a 13+ day long phase 6 (1/9-21+). All that’s needed to have a record long Jan phase 6 is for it to be 12 days. This is consistent with phases 6-7 having had by far the largest # of days in Jan since 2011 (101, 104). OTOH, the # of Jan phase 8/1/2 days since 2011 has been only 42/17/26 days! GEFS has a 2.75 amp peak but it often is too strong: Looking ahead to Feb, phase 7/6 had 134/77 days since 2011 with 8/1/2/3 much lower at 41/30/32/35.

Good write-up from GYX for tomorrow night/sunday KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure moves through the Great Lakes Saturday night, as a second low develops in the Gulf of Maine late Saturday night and Sunday. The first low brings warm air in aloft, while the coastal low helps brings colder air southward at the surface Sunday morning. Like we have seen several times so far this winter, cold air damming will help to drive temperatures and precip types through the event. With the NBM`s reliably poor performance through these systems, the forecast heavily weighted the available high res guidance, most notably from the Nam 3km. As the HRRR becomes more available through the system, there is likely room for continued refinement of temperatures into the day on Sunday. The set up overall is not as ideal at CAD set up as we have seen from other systems this winter. Saturday`s highs are mild with temps in the low to mid 40s, and precip arrives too early in the evening to allow for any meaningful radiational cooling. This means we`ll have to rely on wet bulbing and cold air advection for the colder temperatures. It`s pretty uncommon to wet bulb below freezing into sleet in freezing rain. For this reason, along much of the coastal plain and southern New Hampshire it`s likely to be in the 32-34 degree range with rain for much of Saturday night. Just north of this area, temps are likely to be at or just below freezing to produce a narrow stripe of sleet and freezing rain. Then north of here through the mountains and foothills, mainly snow is expected. This is the anticipated outcome through Saturday night. Then by daybreak Sunday, temperatures begin to fall as the coastal low deepens and winds shift to northerly. Colder air is expected to slosh southward at all levels of the atmosphere as the low deepens. This transitions precip to mainly rain or snow Sunday morning, with the rain/snow line moving southward. Precip likely runs out before the cold air arrives through the Seacoast as the dry slot moves in, but a period of snow likely ends the event through much of coastal Maine. Further north through the mountains, foothills, and across central Maine, moisture likely continues to blossom through the day as the coastal low deepens. Through these areas, there is an increasing potential for advisory level snowfall through the event.