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Total disagreement amongst the 2 mentioned models
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This developing Nino is gonna soak the heck out of the DMV. You guys are gonna get so damned much rain, you are gonnabe SICK of it. Every last weather system coming off the Pac is gonna demolish your region particularly with rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain. I fervently hope Texas gets drowned this summer/fall/winter. I want to see Rt 1626 under lots of muddy waters, with big cedars strewn everywhere!
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Watch out tomorrow DMV Region. Could be lots of thunderstorms that will significantly pad your rain totals. This Nino will continue hammering the East/Southeast and South for months to come.
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It eventually mixed out, but oddly it was much higher here this morning. Maybe there is an issue with the station sensor.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
LVblizzard replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Decent severe threat tomorrow as long as the morning clouds and rain get out quick enough. Looks like we’ll get some much needed rain at the very least. - Today
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
He has "forecasted" 1997-98 for you and looks forward to your suffering. Like i said. Easy as pie. He just goes warmest/least snowy outcome for the east. Without even looking at data that tells me 1997-1998 was the worst strong/super nino of the bunch for the east. -
The more backed surface winds and therefore better low-level shear do indeed appear to be more likely to our northeast, but the forecast hodographs for the local area on some guidance do suggest a non-zero tornado threat.
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HRRR and NAM3km going nuts tonight, saying some spots could get 4 to 5 inches. Good to see the models beefing it up tonight. Hopefully this won't disappoint.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think it may be NDJ. -
Ultra saturated sounding from DVN earlier this evening. Explains why even the drizzle was heavy earlier.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Thanks, Ray. Based on model consensus and even after reducing the avg prog as a BC being that June model run avg has tended to verify too warm, especially Euro, I’m thinking RONI/ONI peaks will likely be at the higher end of your range or warmer. Models are leaning toward an OND peak. -
Astro spring here was the 2nd warmest in 45 years behind only 2010, also the 2nd driest with 6.75" of precip, only 1995 was drier.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
PDO is glaring there, look at this a -0.6 correlation in Louisiana! That's out of 1.0. I would agree, near normal, El Nino east or west based is usually colder than average there -
Doesn't seem like a real favorable environment for tornadoes tomorrow. Recent HRRR and 00z NAM trying for more low end straight line risk.
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From the scanner it sounds like there's a lot of damage in the Evansville area and Warrick County. Took quite awhile to get a proper warning on that one too.
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Wet late Monday 6/22 or another Fizzle?
SnowenOutThere replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
3k NAM looked better too. Though severe wise the hodographs look less impressive than this morning. Generally the surface winds are more westerly instead of southern on the latest runs so you don’t get the same amount of directional shear -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I’d say well under 85% that it will be warmer than normal in the SE. The better chance imho is for NN there. -
PDS tornado warning outside of Evansville, Indiana
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Looks like a decent morning too…may be a good time to get fert/compost around the fruit trees.
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I’d be happy with 0.75-1.00”. So it can feel free to peel over tblizz’s wives after that.
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about time!
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Should be a decent soaking in SNE. Given how these things sort of peel right figuring that and what models have overall, I think most areas get a good soaking.
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0z NAM and HRRR are pretty close now.. Jackpot in Templeton?
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I went through some serious b*******, and I'd hate to see it happen to anybody else. Reclassification as Non-IBD IBD-related medications (namely, 5-aminosalicylates, thiopurines, corticosteroids, and anti-tumor necrosis factor [TNF]) were used in 55 of the 108 patients (50.9%) misdiagnosed with UC and in 80 of the 184 patients (43.5%) misdiagnosed with CD (Table 3) https://journals.lww.com/ajg/fulltext/2023/10001/s1033_misdiagnosis_of_inflammatory_bowel_disease_.1572.aspx
