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MOS is pretty cold Sun AM. Seems a little overdone in spots.

Enjoy

To be fair it’s a basic strong nino forecast. Compare this year’s to 23-24 and 15-16 and then what the actuals were.

Currently 91/71 for a feels like of 98. Is it really October?

Not far off here. Unfortunate about tomorrow's degrader. One of the best years in many.

Windshield wiper. GFS finally onboard with it too, tho weak and offshore

I don’t necessarily have an issue with the depiction of low heights and a cut off over the southeast trying to form a coastal, but last night’s euro was absurd lol.

bizarre .. the operational version too. Chaotic hodgepodge of perforation in anything that resembles a ridge. That's been a verifying theme, though - holes punched in ridges. seems like there will be holes punched in the heights S of the polar branch, but at this range ... not correct on where those are. That run from 00z happened to time/place one where a book-end TC happened to be getting going ... Goes on to being a nice example of spontaneous emergence from model generated noise.

October wasn’t expected to be that wet. The above normals start Nov and especially Dec

Picked up another .11 this morning. .36 storm total. Watching the developing pattern around day 9-10...

The 12Z Euro still has the E coast storm next week. So, currently the 12Z run non-AI main global models with it are the CMC (its first time) and the Euro (3rd time in a row at 0Z/12Z as 6Z/18Z have yet to have it, which I could tell because 144 hours was far out enough to tell). Also, the 12Z Euro AIFS still has it, too.

Euro AI misses next week aside for gusty winds on coast but then tries again at the end of its run.

Take a look at the AI Euro, backs it into the coast and gets rain to us by Wed night-Thusday of next week.

All you gotta do is look at last years…abysmal performance by them.

Another one for the fakers

Looks perfectly seasonable to me for the metro. Mid to upper 60's most days (maybe some 70's in there) with lows in the 40's. Can't get much better for October.

The minimum is probably a line of heavy showers with gusts to 30-40 or so. The higher end is widespread gusts to 50 and some localized 60, with maybe a brief spinup or two. Probably at least a few scattered lightning strikes if we can get some heating.

My stance has and still is: -whereas CC/AGW has its clearly detrimental effects and thus I’m not happy about it (plus I selfishly prefer cold over warmth way down here in the deep SE), its effects aren’t all bad and are naturally largely being ignored by the extreme doomsayers. I‘m referring mainly to the increased greening of the globe that has occurred due to increased CO2 and also the reduced number of deaths from cold, which has killed many more than heat per organizations that compile the stats even though the balance could change if it gets hot enough, of course -there very could be some negative feedback loops that aren’t being modeled well as regards how much warmer it will ultimately get, which if true would mean that the worst case scenarios aren’t realistic

That’s at 6z too. Sunday morning is light winds.

..Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... As the upper trough amplifies and the surface cyclone deepens over the northern Appalachians, low-level convergence along the attendant surface trough will increase into the morning hours, resulting in the development of low-topped convection that will quickly evolve into a squall line across western NY/PA. The northward advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will result in 500 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis ahead of the line, with locally higher values approaching 1000 J/kg in spots. Some guidance members suggest that surface airmass recovery may be brief ahead of the squall line given the potential for widespread antecedent cloud cover. Still, strong tropospheric wind fields will accompany the squall line, with forecast soundings showing 50+ kt flow as low as 800-700 mb, with 35-40 kt flow contained within the boundary layer, just above the surface. Regardless of the degree of destabilization that precedes the squall line, downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft within the squall line should support strong to occasionally severe surface gusts, mostly in the 35-55 kt range. Scattered instances of tree/wire damage are expected, starting from around western PA during the late morning hours, to the East Coast around early evening.