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CFS has been doing a shitty job with the MJO as of late,its showing the MJO going MC,in reality this is just a strong EKW which its even showing causing destructive interferece with that actual MJO signal

Its literally been perfect out.. not sweating constantly and just overall comfortable.. wish this was how Summer was then I wouldn't mind it

RRFS/REFS Go-Live & Legacy Model Retirements Nov 3 This is a reminder regarding major operational dataset changes taking effect on NOMADS (https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/) on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Key Changes & Path Updates: 1. Legacy Model Retirements (SCN 26-47): Data directories for the following retired models will no longer be updated and will be decommissioned: - NAM (/pub/data/nccf/com/nam/) - SREF (/pub/data/nccf/com/sref/) - HREF (/pub/data/nccf/com/href/) - HiresW (/pub/data/nccf/com/hiresw/ - except Guam) - NAM MOS 2. New Model Additions (SCN 26-48): Next-generation high-resolution data streams are available under new operational directory paths: - Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS v1.0): /pub/data/nccf/com/rrfs/prod/ - RRFS Ensemble Forecast System (REFS v1.0): /pub/data/nccf/com/refs/prod/ 3. Downstream & Auxiliary Updates: - HYSPLIT v9.1 (SCN 26-78): Inputs updated to use RRFS/GFS streams. - SPC Post v3.0 (SCN 26-77): Post-processing output headers and directories updated. - Blend & MAG Website Changes (SCN 26-89): Web visualizations and blend inputs transitioned to RRFS/REFS.

I'm ok with the warmth for now.. if its not going to snow atleast keep it warm enough to have the heat off

I saw that... was that supposed to be a true ob?

Chamber of Commerce Days leading to some chilly ass nights up here a million feet above sea level. A very long football season up here in Curwensville is coming to a merciful end with perfect weather.

Going to be fun cooking a turkey in the cabin Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

womp womp

Dec 1997 was snowy month in the southern Appalachians. Had thirty inches of snow on the way to a nearly 100 inch season at my location. Will be interesting to see how a similar pattern will play out in a warming climate. .

We have actually had very warm Novembers (1902, 1975, 2015) give nice early snowstorms after the 20th of the month. We've also had cold Novembers produce an inch or less of snow. It's the very beginning of winter so anything can and will happen.

Made it to 72 here today and I am blaming bitcoin and dogecoin. Oh and the market dropping because Al does not make money.

I have to get that weather magnet working for you guys. It needs a couple transistors and vacuum tubes. Yes, that's it.

Down to 61 brrr

Makes you wonder how bad the situation would be if we didn’t get 10-20” of rain in July

Cool afternoon out there but winds are really blowing at times.

Most are 50 ft or less. My entire road has soooo many, just loaded with Beech. Very dense sections. I dont see alot of dead ones from beech leaf disease. Im sure its just a matter of time unfortunately. I have only been here 8 years, so maybe some larger ones succumbed befors that. The majority are in the 15-30ft range.

Exactly, not having snow cover in Churchill/mooseonee this time of year is far far from normal. They have polar bears there .

@grok is this real?

I'm impressed and excited. Look at that potential record breaking heat in the west.

@LakePaste25 Speaking of 1997-98, which I firmly believe is the best analog for this winter despite this El Niño being much stronger (and more east-based)

As promised, here is a bit of a look into the new insights I am attempting to generate for orographic forecasting this winter. First, here is an initial look at my froude number visualizations for a random hour of a NAM forecast during the light upslope event a few weekends ago. Note the comparison to the BTV calculations, currently there is a bit of a low bias that needs to be sorted out: The full product will look something more like this, where other factors like IVT, wind speed and direction, forecasted precip etc.. are all included: The image shown is late in the evening during the January 1-2 2025 upslope event, just as the flow was beginning to become critical rather than blocked. I tested with this event as by the AM on 1/2, the flow became fully unblocked and I wanted to see if the product captured that correctly. As we all know, upslope can be a fickle forecasting problem, I hope these products can help simplify it! There aren't many places where all of these essential factors in the forecast are all visualized together. Ultimately, I may scale this up into an "upslope index" if all goes well.

IAD had an hour of blowing dust obs this afternoon. I'm just going to blame data centers.