canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18Z DGEX. O.O That'd cause major flooding issues on the coast I'd think considering their snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That'd cause major flooding issues on the coast I'd think considering their snowpack. And we'd add to our non-exsist snowpack in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 On another note temps are dropping like a rock. Down to 19 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Umm.. wow. Thats some 32.6" of snowfall for my place in North Adams Co. I like snow, but not that damn much. Even the Alpacas will be covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wind has really picked up, too. I really want to see negative numbers here in Harrisburg. I've never experienced it in my life and want to do so because, well, I'm apparently crazy. Euro ensembles for 12z are a bit west of the OP, that's a good sign (as good as a sign can be for a storm 4 days out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wind has really picked up, too. I really want to see negative numbers here in Harrisburg. I've never experienced it in my life and want to do so because, well, I'm apparently crazy. Euro ensembles for 12z are a bit west of the OP, that's a good sign (as good as a sign can be for a storm 4 days out). At this juncture, I'm not sure the ensemble mean is worth a whole lot. Not sure if you have access to it, but looking at the total spread of the ensemble members probably gives a better idea of how the forecast is shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is true, but at least they are radically different. This will definitely be a system to watch, but again I refuse to get excited until Monday night maybe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is true, but at least they are radically different. This will definitely be a system to watch, but again I refuse to get excited until Monday night maybe! deep down inside your excited...admit it -lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What happened to the 18z GFS...no storm basically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 deep down inside your excited...admit it -lol. Can't prove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What happened to the 18z GFS...no storm basically? tombo says it's basically identical to 12z, so yup no storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What happened to the 18z GFS...no storm basically? Typical GFS at this range. Don't get too caught up in each run until Sunday night's 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Total precipitation map of the 18z GFS still looks good for south central PA, but no so much central and western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Down to 14° here currently. The airport is still gusting over 20kts....nasty out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Typical GFS at this range. Don't get too caught up in each run until Sunday night's 0z runs. I never thanked you for your posts over the last few days, so let me do that now: Thank you, thank you, thank you! Your additions to this thread are great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18z GFS the eastern outlier at 100+ hours? That NEVER happens! What a shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like even the LOLGAPS has come back West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I never thanked you for your posts over the last few days, so let me do that now: Thank you, thank you, thank you! Your additions to this thread are great. Hey thanks! Isn't this stuff great? I can't believe I do it for a living! This is a nice region, too. Everyone who posts in the CPA thread are usually understanding and rational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hey thanks! Isn't this stuff great? I can't believe I do it for a living! This is a nice region, too. Everyone who posts in the CPA thread are usually understanding and rational. Yes JST, PSU and MAG you do an outstanding job and I'm along with others on here are quite grateful. Hopefully ol Fred out of weather world is right, 1-2' for central pa. Right now the GFS is on its own, Ukmet, Canadian, and Euro all have some kind of hugger or inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just woke up from napping for awhile. Ran the 12z Euro on Accupro...holy crap, can it be Tuesday yet? I'm once again impressed with the model grouping considering the range, specifically with the Canadian and Euro showing pretty much the same things they showed last night. Barring any kind of disappearance or radically different evolution of this storm in future runs this is starting to look like one of those big events that might actually be somewhat well forecasted in the day 4-5 range. Still lots of issues to hash out of course, especially from around Harrisburg and east with regards to possible mixing issues if the GGEM's somewhat warmer temp profiles panned out..Euros close too. This is by far the best shot CPA has had at a direct shot from classic miller A bomb straight up the coast in awhile. The neutral NAO should be our friend in allowing this to come west enough..although if it phases too quick we may have to deal with a track too far west. I do like a coastal hugging track at the moment though. With the arctic high in place prior to the event at least (NYC is only forecasted to be 20 Monday), there should be a decent baroclinic boundary for this thing to follow along the coastline. Cautiously optimistic at this point in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Down to 18.9 here so temps are falling fast. One thing, can the OP or a moderator change the thread title to put Central PA first before any other words. I've been having a hard time finding it the way it's currently titled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Down to 18.9 here so temps are falling fast. One thing, can the OP or a moderator change the thread title to put Central PA first before any other words. I've been having a hard time finding it the way it's currently titled. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Who wants to wager this storm is NYC's by Sunday lol. I kid I kid, but WAY WAY too early for excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Who wants to wager this storm is NYC's by Sunday lol. I kid I kid, but WAY WAY too early for excitement. It's actually a real possibility that we miss out on this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Down to 18.9 here so temps are falling fast. One thing, can the OP or a moderator change the thread title to put Central PA first before any other words. I've been having a hard time finding it the way it's currently titled. im at 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 17 degrees here....MAN it's cold....and windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It's actually a real possibility that we miss out on this one as well. I know you guys are probably conditioned to missing out after the last two winters the coast has seen, but this is really the best shot you've had. The superensemble members indicate that at least the eastern part of this thread will see a big snowfall. (Sorry for getting everyone's hopes up if this busts. Just calling it how I see it at this time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL - Bullseye is like right over my house. My GFS hack really worked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i would like to order this one please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We've been burned a couple of times of missing "the big one" this year, it's hard to think this could be the one...I'll believe it when nowcasting starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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