JamieOber Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOL, the Euro absolutely crushes Central PA. 2+" QPF. This actually is the solution I like the best, which probably means it has no chance of verifying The play by play is confusing....very heavy snow west of I95 but they don't say where......I think your area looks good. Eh, nevermind. Thank, am. And I second afvet89, thanks for posting here. We have a damn solid group of mets in this thread, damn solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sounds like a big run for the area north of 80. Verbatim the 2m freezing line at its most North point is right along I80. 850's are marginal up to about I81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I do get confused reading that thread. also i get bug eyed reading in the mid-atlantic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOL, the Euro absolutely crushes Central PA. 2+" QPF. This actually is the solution I like the best, which probably means it has no chance of verifying The 12Z run crushes us again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How far west does the 0C line get on the 12z ECMWF? Sounds like Harrisburg stays a majority of the time with a heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Verbatim the 2m freezing line at its most North point is right along I80. 850's are marginal up to about I81. Closest approach of the 850s is the Lehigh Valley per the PHL/NYC thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 32F extends pretty far west, but everything is below freezing aloft. Probably terrible ratios, but are you really going to complain about that with 2" QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It has been a pretty long time since we have had a heavy wet snow here in the Harrisburg area. Would be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I can see a lot of people not sleeping the next couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Closest approach of the 850s is the Lehigh Valley per the PHL/NYC thread. Using SV regionals farthest West point is 126 which is right along I81, Eastern Adams...Northern York...up into Southern Lebanon... The same plot is the farthest North it gets as it cuts East along Southern Leb...through Central Berks and basically following I78 East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 32F extends pretty far west, but everything is below freezing aloft. Probably terrible ratios, but are you really going to complain about that with 2" QPF? so were gonna go from the high in the teens on monday, to 32 on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 32F extends pretty far west, but everything is below freezing aloft. Probably terrible ratios, but are you really going to complain about that with 2" QPF? Exactly! Even just an 8:1 ratio is 16". Wonder what the winds are. It could be a very crippling event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 so were gonna go from the high in the teens on monday, to 32 on Tuesday? Well, more like Wednesday aftn/night, but yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Verbatim off of this run, I switch over to a flooding downpour for several hours, but man, what a storm as depicted. I could see a foot of snow and an inch of rain...someone said that QPF down towards Lancaster is between 2.5" and 3"? THIS is the storm I want to see that I described this morning...I'll take several hours of rain, fellows, for you good folks N and W of me to get pummeled. You all deserve it after last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I can see a lot of people not sleeping the next couple days lets hope this one doesnt slip away as we get closer. alot of the storms this year looked great from a few days away only to end up being minor events. but with every storm there is new hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 am19psu, welcome! Stick around, this is the friendliest, nicest thread on here IMO. We all get along and root for each other to get a snowstorm. It sucks to be in the bullseye 130+ hours out, but maybe it'll be a miracle fir our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, more like Wednesday aftn/night, but yeah. Great.. Have we determined timing yet? Tues night into Wed.? I only get to midnight on the 24th using this http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kmdt.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Henry M Jinx Warning issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thankfully, it'll be too cold to do anything outside this weekend so we can all obsess over model runs ever 3-6 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Cyclones "life" is slower this run. Occludes in the sweet spot for CPA, thus the higher QPF. Problem is the rapid development was even faster on the 0z so the heaviest QPF was farther South over the Delmarva. Say DC has a center of heaviest QPF. Now the center if you will, looks to be overt Balt. Slower life cycle. Makes me think of the boxing day storm when the Euro overall was over amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Cyclones "life" is slower this run. Occludes in the sweet spot for CPA, thus the higher QPF. Problem is the rapid development was even faster on the 0z so the heaviest QPF was farther South over the Delmarva. Say DC has a center of heaviest QPF. Now the center if you will, looks to be overt Balt. Slower life cycle. Makes me think of the boxing day storm when the Euro overall was over amplified. Ya but, the euro was really the only model showing that storm being huge. Now we have model support. For once. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 From mid atlantic thread sauss06, on 21 January 2011 - 01:58 PM, said: Whats MDT please 2.8 liquid just about all snow it gets to exactly 0 at 850 on one prog, possible there is a warmer period between time samples...but your burried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 From mid atlantic thread sauss06, on 21 January 2011 - 01:58 PM, said: Whats MDT please 2.8 liquid just about all snow it gets to exactly 0 at 850 on one prog, possible there is a warmer period between time samples...but your burried I thought the QPF down our way was closer to 3" than 2"... Agreed that it's likely overdone, but holy cow, what a weekend of model watching for all of us. My wife will be so thrilled...a weather and a football widow all wrapped up in one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Henry M Jinx Warning issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Henry M Jinx Warning issued I gotta say, I love watching his videos. I don't care how accurate he his, but he sure is passionate about what he believes. And to think, he somehow included every big I95 city plus his own backyard in the bullseye. I haven't seen that before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ya but, the euro was really the only model showing that storm being huge. Now we have model support. For once. lol What I meant by it is do we really want to see a slower life cycle? More time for WAA and mixing/rain issues. With surface high and low level cold feed not at a classic position, seems to me that a quicker occluding system cutting WAA is better...at least for where I am at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 anyone determine timing yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 anyone determine timing yet? Either tuesday afternoon or overnight - wednesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Either tuesday afternoon or overnight - wednesday night Thanks Zak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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