EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The Euro looks slightly east,,ughhh Slightly east being over the Chesapeake.... Some of you guys need a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Slightly east being over the Chesapeake.... Some of you guys need a break. you missed my last post it ended up being an ok run lol, your also further east than me so you get the brunt of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro doesn't seem all that bad. Looks like about 1.3" QPF in Altoona. I didn't expect another run of 2"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro doesn't seem all that bad. Looks like about 1.3" QPF in Altoona. I didn't expect another run of 2"+. How about KHGR? Probably like 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 you missed my last post it ended up being an ok run lol, your also further east than me so you get the brunt of the storm Everyone need to stop with the east west till the run is out and actually know that it is east or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro doesn't seem all that bad. Looks like about 1.3" QPF in Altoona. I didn't expect another run of 2"+. yeah i know what you mean, but one can dream lol. Whats your opinion on the GFS, I agree with MAG its to progressive and doesn't phase well. As long as I can get a WSW out of this I will be happy, havent seen one of those this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Would either of you red-tags(or anybody) care to weigh in on this.... but it seems like as the axis of heaviest precip rotates around this storm, we will probably see highest snowfall totals relatively close to areas that see a changeover, would you agree? Should make for another interesting forecast, but better than the storm/no storm kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well, I mean I dunno if taking steps toward the GFS is necessarily the path to redemption to begin with haha. The GFS to me is unphased and too progressive and it runs the 500 low straight out way before that energy dives out of Canada. The 0z GGEM looks similar to the 12z to me. The only thing that may constitute a "shift" to the GFS is that the GGEM doesn't dig the shortwave as far south as it did at 12z. But since its not a day and a half faster than everything else it still phases with the vort coming out of Canada and ends up with pretty much the same storm track. I think the folks along and east of the 95 corridor are going to want the progressive GFS to come to fruition because if this evolves like the other models have it I just don't see how the storm tracks in a manner that doesn't give them mixing issues at some point in the storm given the pattern. That's my take anyways, i'd love to hear one of the other mets opinions in here to maybe help elaborate or critique what I said. I pretty much agree with everything you have here. I don't see I-95 getting a big storm from a coastal storm in a situation like this -- if there is a storm moving up the coast, it should try to come inland more than recent storms. The main difference in the GFS the past three runs is that it's not digging the shortwave very far south. Taking a look at the 00z NAM and GFS, there is a huge difference in the positions of the shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yeah i know what you mean, but one can dream lol. Whats your opinion on the GFS, I agree with MAG its to progressive and doesn't phase well. As long as I can get a WSW out of this I will be happy, havent seen one of those this year I won't say the GFS is nuts -- the 00z run actually depicts a pretty common Alberta Clipper transferring energy to a coastal storm. That being said, I believe the upper-air pattern favors the rest of the model world that has the stronger storm. Given how far north and how strong the western ridge is, the shortwave coming down from Canada should want to dig that trough pretty far south, so I would definitely lean towards that solution at the moment. That doesn't guarantee us a major snowstorm (things can still go wrong with that evolution too), but it gets us in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 per tombo unv 1.75" - 2.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 per tombo unv 1.75" - 2.0" UNV is around 1.3". It has 2.5" in MDT, but that is probably not all snow. That brings up a point about the 00z Canadian & Euro. The slight shift east is actually better for most because mixing could be a big issue with this storm, and the new tracks on those models are a bit more favorable for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UNV is around 1.3". It has 2.5" in MDT, but that is probably not all snow. That brings up a point about the 00z Canadian & Euro. The slight shift east is actually better for most because mixing could be a big issue with this storm, but the new tracks on those models are a bit more favorable for snow. if unv is 1.3" id assume clearfield would be under 1" prob .6 - .8" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How did Hazleton look? Tombo told me we started as rain then went to heavy snow. Of course they're all busy arguing with zucker about temps in Dobbs Ferry so I couldn't find out anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 if unv is 1.3" id assume clearfield would be under 1" prob .6 - .8" ? You're pretty good -- Clearfield comes in at around 0.75" on this run. As for Hazleton, QPF is around 2.5" (at AVP), but some of the low & mid-level temps are pushing it. With the close call in the mid-levels and surface temps dancing around freezing, I would expect at least a brief mix with sleet and/or rain for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You're pretty good -- Clearfield comes in at around 0.75" on this run. As for Hazleton, QPF is around 2.5" (at AVP), but some of the low & mid-level temps are pushing it. With the close call in the mid-levels and surface temps dancing around freezing, I would expect at least a brief mix with sleet and/or rain for a time. KHGR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 KHGR? Just under 2" with raw surface temps hitting the mid 30s and 850 numbers close, so that could include a brief mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just under 2" with raw surface temps hitting the mid 30s and 850 numbers close, so that could include a brief mix. Thanks. Not worried about temps on euro they are always too warm. Only about 5-10 deg off night lows already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I just posted for the folks over in the pgh thread, it goes from approx 0.8 or so at JST to 0.4-0.5" at Latrobe and 0.1" or less at PIT. The brutal sharp cutoff is rearing its head again the last couple runs of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I just posted for the folks over in the pgh thread, it goes from approx 0.8 or so at JST to 0.4-0.5" at Latrobe and 0.1" or less at PIT. The brutal sharp cutoff is rearing its head again the last couple runs of the Euro. It makes more since. When does a low near the east coast give pitt 2" qpf ever? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How did Hazleton look? Tombo told me we started as rain then went to heavy snow. Of course they're all busy arguing with zucker about temps in Dobbs Ferry so I couldn't find out anything else. :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You're pretty good -- Clearfield comes in at around 0.75" on this run. As for Hazleton, QPF is around 2.5" (at AVP), but some of the low & mid-level temps are pushing it. With the close call in the mid-levels and surface temps dancing around freezing, I would expect at least a brief mix with sleet and/or rain for a time. thanks yeah i figured it would be in that range given the track. too far east this run for me to get the BIG snow but would still be a good storm (6-10") if it holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 6Z NAM has a monster lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Change those to hugger and stellar. I had 3 long island iced teas at an office party, sue me! It's all good. I've posted on here with a good buzz on a few times myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Area forecast discussion National Weather Service State College PA 626 am EST Sat Jan 22 2011 "The main focus for the second half of the period is on a potential major East Coast winter storm system that could adversely impact the area by the middle of next week. A moderate spread in the timing of the East Coast cyclone exists between the GFS and Canadian Gem/ECMWF...with the GFS on the faster edge of the solution envelope. The GFS more offshore development is countered by a westward trend/shift of the gefs mean cyclone track...combined with the further west solutions of the Canadian global and UKMET. The last two runs of the European model (ecmwf) are rock solid in a storm track over the mouth of the Chesapeake that would likely result in heavy snows over much of central PA. The ec timing compares very well to the non-NCEP guidance but is slightly east of the UKMET/Gem global consensus. The European model (ecmwf) and its ensemble mean are in very good agreement with a low center near the Virginia Tidewater at f120 and near Cape Cod at f144. Putting the typical uncertainties aside at this range...this system bears watching in the coming days as it has some of the classic attributes/anomalies that are usually associated with major East Coast storms. Overall the models seem to be in reasonable agreement that there will be a storm system...but of course the details and exact track will need to be resolved. For now will mention 35-45 percent high chance probability of precipitation. Temperatures will remain below normal. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I thought it looked a tad east of what it was showing, maybe its just me, It still gives us hope, you guys know what time the Euro comes out? It was the initial impression they had over in the PHL/NYC thread. Yeah, it was a tad east, but the main issue is that damn PHL/NYC thread. As you said, PSU, in a later post here, that thread is a disaster and it can be hard to figure out what is going on. That sucks. -4.2 here, in other news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Allll right all you pros.....one of my favorite red taggers other than you guys has favorable opinions on some model called the FIM: Apparently it has done well this year. It nails us, it seems. What do you guys think of the FIM? Is it fim-faming us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What do you guys think of the FIM? Is it fim-faming us? You mean flim-flamming? Just hit -0.4 in Toftrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah, it was a tad east, but the main issue is that damn PHL/NYC thread. As you said, PSU, in a later post here, that thread is a disaster and it can be hard to figure out what is going on. That sucks. -4.2 here, in other news. It's awful. I quit trying to catch up in it. The 0z models didn't do much to change my ideas right now. At least the eastern part of this thread has a really good chance of major snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You mean flim-flamming? Just hit -0.4 in Toftrees. No.....from Webster's: Fim-famming (fim-fam-ming), n. 1. Being fooled by the computer forecast model the FIM, which is a lesser-known model. 2. Unintentionally fooling people on an early Saturday morning into thinking you misspelled but really was making a really crappy play on words joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.