EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Got down to 8 last night. Sitting at 16 now and falling quickly under clear skies. -2 per hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 some good ones in there P009 is beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 139. now -3.5 per hr. It's gunna be a cold one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Did DT have anything new to say, i see he hasn't posted anythig today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Did DT have anything new to say, i see he hasn't posted anythig today Said tonight he would make a forecast around 11PM I like reading what his reasoning is behind his forecasts. He definitely has his on mind set. I think this is a good read. post # 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Did DT have anything new to say, i see he hasn't posted anythig today After making fun of the mets here who thought the GFS might have a slimmer of a chance in being right, he proceeded to explain why the 12z ECM didn't shift that much. Didn't really read his reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNorthMTN Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 PotterCounty.... we have a cabin in shinglehouse, at the large iron bridge on the oswayo, ( spelling ) just before you get into town. Are you right in shinglehouse or outside town? Did DT have anything new to say, i see he hasn't posted anythig today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Anybody have access to a little more than 24 hr plots to the Euro Ens.? Why do they almost look like they agree with the pre 12z GFS idea of a Miller B? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 11 deg now brrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Anybody have access to a little more than 24 hr plots to the Euro Ens.? Why do they almost look like they agree with the pre 12z GFS idea of a Miller B? http://raleighwx.ame...SLPUS_loop.html Ensembles seem to be in decent agreement with the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I got 11.8 right now. That is cold considering it is 8 pm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ensembles seem to be in decent agreement with the operational. The reason I'm asking is that there is hardly a reflection across the Gulf then all a sudden there it is off the Delmarva. I know the 24 hour plots can be a bit misleading with such a time frame in between. That's usually where the SV plots come in handy but I don't have access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 7° here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 After making fun of the mets here who thought the GFS might have a slimmer of a chance in being right, he proceeded to explain why the 12z ECM didn't shift that much. Didn't really read his reasoning. Had to go searching on f-book, he doesn't really offer up much reasoning really anyways. One of the commenters asked about central PA, he said 12z euro could possibly be correct with how it had the gradient but models like the UKMET buried CPA. After doing some comparing on the 12z vs 0z Euro using accupro's model animator, it really isn't all that much different trackwise. Its largely the same until the point it gets up to the latitude where it starts to matter for us.. of course..from about Norfolk northward. Overall at face value the run is slightly more progressive and thus a bit further east. But the low on the 0z took a steeper trajectory straight up the coast, running from Norfolk thru the Delmarva to just south of LI. The 12z low, which starts a bit off shore of Norfolk, instead seems to be pressured a bit from an upstream shortwave near the Lakes and thus pressed out taking a much flatter track toward the benchmark. Its not a huge track difference but it makes a big difference wrt precip extent, especially since the 12z run was not as robust on the nw precip. Strength of the storm is very similar to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Had to go searching on f-book, he doesn't really offer up much reasoning really anyways. One of the commenters asked about central PA, he said 12z euro could possibly be correct with how it had the gradient but models like the UKMET buried CPA. After doing some comparing on the 12z vs 0z Euro using accupro's model animator, it really isn't all that much different trackwise. Its largely the same until the point it gets up to the latitude where it starts to matter for us.. of course..from about Norfolk northward. Overall at face value the run is slightly more progressive and thus a bit further east. But the low on the 0z took a steeper trajectory straight up the coast, running from Norfolk thru the Delmarva to just south of LI. The 12z low, which starts a bit off shore of Norfolk, instead seems to be pressured a bit from an upstream shortwave near the Lakes and thus pressed out taking a much flatter track toward the benchmark. Its not a huge track difference but it makes a big difference wrt precip extent, especially since the 12z run was not as robust on the nw precip. Strength of the storm is very similar to 0z. Very interesting. Thanks for that observation. Assuming this is true, then the massive jump can very easily jump back since a minor change in the trajectory depicts a massive change with precip shield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 7° here 9.9 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 6.6F here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12F here...feels much colder then this though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Very interesting. Thanks for that observation. Assuming this is true, then the massive jump can very easily jump back since a minor change in the trajectory depicts a massive change with precip shield? Well, its the combination of both those two things (track/extent) that I think makes the big change in precip. The 12z Euro wasn't as robust with precip extent as it had been (tighter gradient too), and since that has played out consistently with our coastals this season it might be something we have to deal with again. The euro could go back to more of the track it had at 0z and we could still see the tighter gradients. The Friday 0z run started destroying all of pa in 1-2+, last nights 0z run sported the tight gradient between JST and PIT with a similar track. It's going to be interesting to see how the models evolve the next couple days. it's still pretty early, don't be surprised if the Canadian say tonight backs towards the 12z Euro or worse while the GFS does its usual business again. It'd be nice if the models could spare the suspense and just lock in but you know thats not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ralph wiggum did a great comparison to january 2000 in the phil/nyc thread. Good to at least think about! It's super long, otherwise I would repost it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does anyone else have a sick feeling about this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ralph wiggum did a great comparison to january 2000 in the phil/nyc thread. Good to at least think about! It's super long, otherwise I would repost it here. http://www.americanw...post__p__339665 Post 579 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does anyone else have a sick feeling about this storm Sure do...think this storm is going to be totally sick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM looks further west than 12Z through 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nam say Nah to GFS/Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Welp, won't have to worry bout the 0z NAM shying out to sea: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Enjoy! the 0z NAM to me looks like the jap model earlier today with precip shield. temp up to 8 (it went up a degree) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hell, the NAM introduces the possibility it slows down enough to actually phase with the H coming down from Canada. Holy God models are crazy. Hhahaha NAM/GGEM on board, let's get the GFS and Euro back west for our C PA brothers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Enjoy! Nice to see the precip back west, but the warm air is flooding north. Would be mixing issues for almost everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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