MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I wonder what that extrapolates out to? haha That tracks actually a lil close for comfort, but its going to take a heck of a SE flow to penetrate into interior PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 that would be a mix on the 0z nam correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nice to see the precip back west, but the warm air is flooding north. Would be mixing issues for almost everyone. At least we got precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 is that 1" of liquid in WV in 3 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 is that 1" of liquid in WV in 3 hrs? Like .75-1" ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Like .75-1" ya. impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 impressive Indeed. 850's are collapsing, surface is not too warm either. Sounds show snow at HGR at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Indeed. 850's are collapsing, surface is not too warm either. Sounds show snow at HGR at 84. So the 00z NAM is saying brief rain to a heavy snow storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nice to see the precip back west, but the warm air is flooding north. Would be mixing issues for almost everyone. I looked at the 850, 925, and 2m temps and it seems like thru 84hours the <0ºC anchored in true central PA. Southeast of Harrisburg it is above 0 at 850. Most of SE PA except far south is below 0 at 2m while 925 is similar to to 850mb. In SW PA and pgh it's above 0 and 2m and 925mb but below at 850. It appears the low probably sneaks southeast eventually so true central prolly would stay as mostly snow and would think SW PA cools off quickly. The 850 low is due south of CPA. Man it's like watching a show and at the end it says "to be continued" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I looked at the 850, 925, and 2m temps and it seems like thru 84hours the <0ºC anchored in true central PA. Southeast of Harrisburg it is above 0 at 850. Most of SE PA except far south is below 0 at 2m while 925 is similar to to 850mb. In SW PA and pgh it's above 0 and 2m and 925mb but below at 850. It appears the low probably sneaks southeast eventually so true central prolly would stay as mostly snow and would think SW PA cools off quickly. The 850 low is due south of CPA. Man it's like watching a show and at the end it says "to be continued" Right on man. Central PA probably would get crushed extrap of the nam. Can PSUHazelton and others step off the ledge now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 temp 9 went up 2 degrees in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Right on man. Central PA probably would get crushed extrap of the nam. Can PSUHazelton and others step off the ledge now? If the other 0z models follow suit then I'll take a couple steps back. 10.2*F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 temp 9 went up 2 degrees in an hour. Same up from 9 to 12. No clouds or wind. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm instituting a model drinking game: take a shot for every different model solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If the other 0z models follow suit then I'll take a couple steps back. 10.2*F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm instituting a model drinking game: take a shot for every different model solution. You will be wasted by 1AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 0z NAM 0Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I looked at the 850, 925, and 2m temps and it seems like thru 84hours the <0ºC anchored in true central PA. Southeast of Harrisburg it is above 0 at 850. Most of SE PA except far south is below 0 at 2m while 925 is similar to to 850mb. In SW PA and pgh it's above 0 and 2m and 925mb but below at 850. It appears the low probably sneaks southeast eventually so true central prolly would stay as mostly snow and would think SW PA cools off quickly. The 850 low is due south of CPA. Man it's like watching a show and at the end it says "to be continued" I thought the same thing too when I saw the 00z NAM, if we had a 90 hour panel I think it would show SWPA all snow. BTW, thanks for including us in your discussion I know everyone in our thread appreciates it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 cold enough here that my dog went out to go to the bathroom and came in with droolcicles. Not very scientific, but wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Same up from 9 to 12. No clouds or wind. Strange. IR satellite confirms the clouds beginning to advance eastward across Pennsylvania currently. 4.9F here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm instituting a model drinking game: take a shot for every different model solution. Lol, in that case better get your liquor of choice ready, I'd be really surprised if the GFS at this point had anything near the 12z Euro much less that new NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 0Z NAM My version of extrapolation would be rain for me, mixing for you and heavy snow for KPIT. But thats just the Chicken Capital's extended WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I thought the same thing too when I saw the 00z NAM, if we had a 90 hour panel I think it would show SWPA all snow. BTW, thanks for including us in your discussion I know everyone in our thread appreciates it! Your welcome, I did see you ask the other day and i've been making the occasional post or two for you folks over there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My version of extrapolation would be rain for me, mixing for you and heavy snow for KPIT. But thats just the Chicken Capital's extended WRF. It would be close. i'd say west of I-81 would do well this run. East to MDT mix/snow and east of there mainly rain to some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Only 9 more model runs to go!! That one was positive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Anything less then a 970MB low over Ocean city this run is not acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 0z NAM in motion where does it go from here???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Anything less then a 970MB low over Ocean city this run is not acceptable. No 00z GFS don't listen to him, he is nuts!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I will be able to sleep tonight if the 00z GFS shows what the 00z NAM showed, but more colder or a bit further east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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