PSU8315 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here are some of the specifics for our neck of the woods: Altoona - 0.7" State College - 0.6" Williamsport - 0.6" Scranton - 0.85" Hagerstown - 0.9" (perhaps some brief mixing) Harrisburg/York/Lancaster - 0.9" (including some mixing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, I would like to see the NAM/GFS/UK come around before getting further excited....but it sounds to me like the EURO is kind of a middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I would like to see the UL's be a tad colder. I mean just a tad. Then I would be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I would like to see the UL's be a tad colder. I mean just a tad. Then I would be happy. Yeah, that is the one thing missing with this storm -- we're dealing with a stale cold air mass which isn't being reinforced by a new HP to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, I would like to see the NAM/GFS/UK come around before getting further excited....but it sounds to me like the EURO is kind of a middle ground. Going to have to jump on the bus sometime... you're already a day late on updating your hypemeter!! There actually have been relatively consistent ideas of tracks. Many people are confusing the tracks with the precip shields, but time will bring everything into a clearer picture. This Euro run seems like a very plausible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Going to have to jump on the bus sometime... you're already a day late on updating your hypemeter!! There actually have been relatively consistent ideas of tracks. Many people are confusing the tracks with the precip shields, but time will bring everything into a clearer picture. This Euro run seems like a very plausible outcome. Just wondering what piece of the puzzle is the GFS struggling with? Because it has been all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 found this in PHL thread...precip thru 102 (done for our region) .5 Johnstown, PA, to duboise, PA to Binghampton. NY toSchenecdity, NY in VT .75 somerset, PA to north of State College, Williamsport to Scranton, Albany, NY into souther VT 1" Dc to Harrisburg, PA to Tamaqua to East Stroudsburg, PA to Hudson, NY to VT/MA border 1.25" Richmond, to Elkton, MD to Landsdale, PA to along NW NJ, PA border along Delaware RIver to Kingston, NY to CT/MA border 1.5" Eastpn, MD to Wilmingon, De to just west of PHL to ewing, NJ to NYC, all of LI 1.75 most of Delaware up norther tip to Cherry Hill NJ to Levitown, NJ to Toms River NJ 1.5" south Nj Elmer to Hammonton to ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 All right guys, I'm going out for a while, hockey game...be back later to look at 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Oh and we hit the big goose egg last night. 2303:55Calm10.00FairCLR0-129.911014.1 Nice. My dad reports -0.6° at home after an even 0° yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wind chill advisories are slowly creeping on in... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/severe.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The Euro ensemble is coming in slightly east of the op. About 30% are more amplified and result in a farther inland track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The Euro ensemble is coming in slightly east of the op. About 30% are more amplified and result in a farther inland track. Seems to me like there is more model agreement on the GFS side of the scale. The GEFS seems to becoming the middle ground with the NAM sliding towards it. The UK/GFS OP East and then Euro Ens., Euro OP and finally GGEM leaning East to far West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 just got home and its sounds like things are better than yesterday. so thats a good thing. will be interesting to see where things start to trend over the next 24/48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z nam is ots fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z nam is ots fwiw Well out to sea. Wow, that's interesting given the trend at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z nam is ots fwiw To me it looks like a convective mess. Very poor presentation of cyclone formation at the surface that is reflected from failure of low development and organization into the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nam is total garbage....every run gas shown a drAmatic shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well out to sea. Wow, that's interesting given the trend at 12Z. To me it looks like a convective mess. Very poor presentation of cyclone formation at the surface that is reflected from failure of low development and organization into the upper levels. very very messy at H5. think this is a garbage run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hpc 5 day total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Temperatures are going to plumet tonight!! possbily set a record low, temps are forcasted to get down around -14 possibly lower. NWS was forecasting PC skies tonight but they maybe crystal clear causing possibly even more radational cooling, especially with a 1028MB HP settling in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Temperatures are going to plumet tonight!! possbily set a record low, temps are forcasted to get down around -14 possibly lower. NWS was forecasting PC skies tonight but they maybe crystal clear causing possibly even more radational cooling, especially with a 1028MB HP settling in I can see some places up your way down to -15 or -20, especially in the deeper valleys. The sky should be mostly clear or even totally clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That NAM is full of bad news. And I hope MDT can get into the negatives. I had to stand outside for 40 minutes earlier today and it is a wee bit chilly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z gfs = wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 unless the euro folds at 00z...not sure I can trust anything else at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It is America vs the world. I hope America is wrong. Very, very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Off hours have been going east and the normal hours west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Off hours have been going east and the normal hours west. Let's say a prayer the storm hits at noon or midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just looked and read through the 18z...sounds like the NAM and GFS are f***ed up with feedback. EDIT: But the GEFS agrees with the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Per NWS...I feel like I'm on the edge of a mix or all snow.........won't know until it's here AIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR STORM LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH MODELS AND ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST WINTER STORM. BIGGEST CHANGE THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS SLOWING DOWN OF STORM...HOLDING OFF POTENTIAL EFFECTS UNTIL LATER TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. OTHERWISE...SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE 06Z RUNS THOUGH 12Z RUNS COME BACK IN LINE. BUT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF UPPER LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURES...AS CAN BE EXPECTED 3-4 DAYS OUT. OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS STORM HUGGING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH GFS FURTHER EAST. INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER HEADING INTO THIS EVENT...WHICH MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIP TO FAR SE COUNTIES...BUT REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW - THE TOUGH PART IS DETERMINING HOW MUCH. AGAIN...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO EXIST...LATEST TRACK/TRENDS BRING A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOWFALL TO THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIG SNOW CONTINUING TO BE IN THE EAST. CLIPPER FOLLOWS...DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING NW FLOW AND SOME LIGHER SNOW SNOWERS. WEAKENING YET STUBBORN TROUGH THEN PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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