JamieOber Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It's awful. I quit trying to catch up in it. The 0z models didn't do much to change my ideas right now. At least the eastern part of this thread has a really good chance of major snows. Even with the ensembles like the Euro and GGEM being east? Also, what do you think about that stuff with the FIM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It makes more since. When does a low near the east coast give pitt 2" qpf ever? lol I wouldn't laugh too loud... .....if there is an inland closed 500 low, lows near the coast have produced 15" to 25" type snowfalls here. Granted - usually those are usually less than 2" water.....but getting an extreme snowstorm with a low hugging the coast isn't that far fetched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No.....from Webster's: Fim-famming (fim-fam-ming), n. 1. Being fooled by the computer forecast model the FIM, which is a lesser-known model. 2. Unintentionally fooling people on an early Saturday morning into thinking you misspelled but really was making a really crappy play on words joke. That was actually a pretty good play-on-words joke. What was cruel was doing it early on Saturday morning - intentional or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Even with the ensembles like the Euro and GGEM being east? Also, what do you think about that stuff with the FIM? The Euro ensemble members aren't that far east, but there is a lot of E-W spread. All of the deep solutions are farther west at this time and it manifests with ensemble mean looking farther east, because a lot of the weak solutions are OTS. The synoptic set up argues for a track closer to the coast with no -NAO block in place. Places like Harrisburg, Bloomsburg, and Scranton are where I think the sweet spot is, at the moment. I think the Euro ops is probably too far west, but it's closer to what I think than the GFS, for example. You can see how the variance is stronger farther to the west, indicating deeper solutions closer to the coast, which is where my head is right now. I don't look at the GGEM ensembles. The way they initialize their individual members is different than NCEP or ECMWF (CMC trys to maximize variance vs. attempting to perturb within a reasonable envelope of initializations), and I don't think it creates a realistic solution. Regarding the FIM, I've never seen any verification scores for it, but considering I've never seen a local AFD or HPC discussion include it, I tend to think it's not particularly useful compared to the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Argh!!! It's all good. I've posted on here with a good buzz on a few times myself. Zero here this morning... - 6 with the WC Brain thanks for your opinions !! You and Tony have been really earning your pay these last few weeks. am19psu do you have a first name or do you just go by am19psu. Thanks for your thoughts!! Even if this storm doesn't track quite the way we want. This is still going to be the most snow some of us have seen in a longtime!!! I'm curious to see how this all plays out. And what model is going to be the King on this storm. Also thinking that a storm this size, people are gonna see some mixing. Along with a ton of snow. Only thing we can do is watch and not get to emotional over the model changes. Because models changing has been happening all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 am19psu do you have a first name or do you just go by am19psu. Thanks for your thoughts!! I'm Adam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It will be interesting to see what happens, the NY/PHL crowd already seems to be claiming victory with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It will be interesting to see what happens, the NY/PHL crowd already seems to be claiming victory with the GFS. And the SREFs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What about SE central PA? So far it's so up in the air on what this baby will do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Jen, we are in a good area by most model guidance with solid QPF. Temps may get shaky, but nobody can accurately predict that this far out. Temps stay cold enough and we will be flashing back to last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Jen, we are in a good area by most model guidance with solid QPF. Temps may get shaky, but nobody can accurately predict that this far out. Temps stay cold enough and we will be flashing back to last year I think along and west of I-81 is in a very favorable position at this stage of the game if the Euro and other western tracking models were to verify. East of there is probably still questionable wrt precip types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Any thoughts on the 12Z NAM? Trough looks much further west and looks like it wants to bring SLP up through Georgia. I know that's a rough range for that model....but looks like a positive sign for the western 2/3 of the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM agrees with the EURO. But it's the NAM at hr84, so predict at your own risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think along and west of I-81 is in a very favorable position at this stage of the game if the Euro and other western tracking models were to verify. East of there is probably still questionable wrt precip types. yep, agreed with this if euro verifies verbatim, but my gut is we see a slight eastward jog. regardless, i think the further away from the coast, the shorter the perior of questionable temps. In the end, if we see qpf from 1-2.5 inches and a little bit falls as rain, I will still be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM agrees with the EURO. But it's the NAM at hr84, so predict at your own risk. Yeah......hoping the GFS has some good news - I can't remember, any models rolling in prior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yep, agreed with this if euro verifies verbatim, but my gut is we see a slight eastward jog. regardless, i think the further away from the coast, the shorter the perior of questionable temps. In the end, if we see qpf from 1-2.5 inches and a little bit falls as rain, I will still be happy! I'm favoring a compromise between the GFS/GEFS/GGEM ENS/ECMWF ENS and EURO/NAM/GGEM.The split is absolutely ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 In the short range, the NAM looks like it went towards the GFS in UL flow. Flattened the jet streak the S branch and doesn't have the energy in the N such a disorganized mess. These OBS are taken till 9z Mon where the models, IMO, start to diverge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm favoring a compromise between the GFS/GEFS/GGEM ENS/ECMWF ENS and EURO/NAM/GGEM.The split is absolutely ridiculous. I miss the good old days when the GFS showed that and it was a fantastic sign at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The split is annoying, but here's a trick I learned in school.... take each time frame in the short range when you "should" have better agreement and compare them. As you get to the times where the models start to split, analyze why and what is causing it. Take the most logical/likely outcome based on the science from those timeframes and a quality forecast will start to emerge. A simple blend of the 2 may not be highest quality because they arrive there in totally different ways... did that make any sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 5.3F here this morning with a blanket of 1-4in on the ground depending on sunny and shady spots; very wintry morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I miss the good old days when the GFS showed that and it was a fantastic sign at this stage. Models are sure confused. GFS, the most I think. But what is a little surprising they are even having disagreements on the time frame. Nam - lets see what it is showing when it gets in it's range. Just wondering would anybody know how many big storms have followed extreme cold? Adam is easy enough to remember. That my sons name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 -8 last night here...BRRRR we are @ 9 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS looked like the EURO for the first 72-84 hours but then it suddenly took the low OTS Got to love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS looked like the EURO for the first 72-84 hours but then it suddenly took the low OTS Got to love it. I think it's a step in the right direction, though. It did suck to see it go wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS 12Z is a LITTLE different at 84hrs than the GFS 06 at 90.... 12Z 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 6.5 this a.m. I think we get to 0 Sunday night. GFS scared me being jumpy but the others haven't exactly joined in on that parade. Tomorrow nught's 0z runs will really ramp up my thoughts. I'm not going to bugling details before then in my attenpt not to get a broken heart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Jen, we are in a good area by most model guidance with solid QPF. Temps may get shaky, but nobody can accurately predict that this far out. Temps stay cold enough and we will be flashing back to last year It's a wait and see game....going to be interesting for sure....Just hope that the temps stay cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We only got done to -3 , didn't get much clearing. Well hopefully the canadian and the euro hold their ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM is a textbook Apps runner...rain all the way to even the 81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM is a textbook Apps runner...rain all the way to even the 81 corridor. i thought an apps runner went up the apps? would basically go over my house and most if not all of pa would be too warm.. didnt see the model but the way you make it sound its just an inland runner...but i could be wrong (like i said didnt see the GGEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.