NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i thought an apps runner went up the apps? would basically go over my house and most if not all of pa would be too warm.. didnt see the model but the way you make it sound its just an inland runner...but i could be wrong (like i said didnt see the GGEM) It tracks well into NC before jumping towards NYC...but the 540 line is all the way back to Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It tracks well into NC before jumping towards NYC...but the 540 line is all the way back to Erie. where can i see the full ggem? the one i have isnt out that far yet? NM i see it. some mixing even back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 where can i see the full ggem? the one i have isnt out that far yet? NM i see it. some mixing back here. Yep, mixing issues, and again maybe even mostly rain for the 81 corridor. I'll wait and see what the p-type maps are like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i was looking at the cmc anyway...my bad i have it marked as ggem...not the same model is it? i was looking at this http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i was looking at the cmc anyway...my bad i have it marked as ggem...not the same model is it? i was looking at this http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html GGEM and CMC are the same...and yep, as I feared...it's so far west that even the 81 corridor sees mostly a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Love how people were worried and east last night. LOL Anyways UKMET prefect track for us. Eastern NC to just off NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Love how people were worried and east last night. LOL Anyways UKMET prefect track for us. Eastern NC to just off NJ. Yep, that sounds like last night's EURO which was golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM and CMC are the same...and yep, as I feared...it's so far west that even the 81 corridor sees mostly a rainstorm. didnt know that, thanks. i had it marked in favorites as GGEM but seen it said CMC on the map so i was a little confused-lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On the phone in Harrisburg, so I don't have a great view of the 12z GEFS, but it's readily apparent the op is a comical outlier. The amplified members are still east of the Euro family of solutions, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Dropped to -2° or -3° this morning...nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On the phone in Harrisburg, so I don't have a great view of the 12z GEFS, but it's readily apparent the op is a comical outlier. The amplified members are still east of the Euro family of solutions, though. Any concern about the western outlier, GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On the phone in Harrisburg, so I don't have a great view of the 12z GEFS, but it's readily apparent the op is a comical outlier. The amplified members are still east of the Euro family of solutions, though. Almost all of the members have the more amplified coastal solution, but a little less than half of them have any snow in PA. Not a big deal at this point -- just seeing it come around to the more amplified solution is a big step on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Almost all of the members have the more amplified coastal solution, but a little less than half of them have any snow in PA. Not a big deal at this point -- just seeing it come around to the more amplified solution is a big step on this run. That's what I thought, beat whatever that crap was the GFS was spitting out the few prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Is it me or is confidence for this storm quickly going sour based off a crappy ggem run? Euro out soon, let's see what is says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro misses us all to the east. God these models are terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro goes to GFS. Precip barely gets west of Philly. Actually it looks just like the dgex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Is it me or is confidence for this storm quickly going sour based off a crappy ggem run? Euro out soon, let's see what is says. Euro looks like it's taken quite a jog to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 From two feet to maybe two flakes on the EURO. Oy, these next two days are going to be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The models are nothing short of lousy this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Glad I wasn't getting excited for this storm too much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Glad I wasn't getting excited for this storm too much! If we get nothing i'll probably stop looking at the weather forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For the record there's another HP that dropped from the GLs on the GFS that shunted it well east, the EURO did the same. The high is basically saving the coast while shafting the interior...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ehhh - we still have time but it feels like that same broken record that just keeps playing here. time to change the record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If we get nothing i'll probably stop looking at the weather forever. So just forget about looking at the actual weather and continue looking at the models...that's where all the excitement is anyway. Oh wait...that's what everyone does already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 we still have the Jap. model on our side-lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 we still have the Jap. model on our side-lol. and the Canadian, also the NAM looks like the 00Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 and the Canadian, also the NAM looks like the 00Z Euro i know i was just being sarcastic if the models can shift this much today they can easily shift the other way tomorrow so im still optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i know i was just being sarcastic if the models can shift this much today they can easily shift the other way tomorrow so im still optimistic. i Hope your right, I'm still leaning towards something along the coastline, the NAO is east based, the PNA is west based not centered over the rockies like the last couple of storms, the 50/50 low isn't good, the HP slides past 75 degrees west allowing for the LP to stay further along the coast. As long as they can phase early it gives us a chance. Is it me or does the 00z Ukie look like its phasing earlier and the LP is further to the west along LA coast. The GFS also has a northern branch bias as it was showing more of a Miller B scenario and just jumped to the miller A solution. The only reason the Euro jumped a little to the east because it wasn't phasing as much and was more progressive and the second HP was causing problems for OTS possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 and the Canadian, also the NAM looks like the 00Z Euro I thought this was the case too regarding the NAM. However, I was reading the NWS State College PA discussion, and they mention about the NAM extrpolated would not bring significant snow to central PA. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE NAM/SREF MEAN BEYOND F84 WOULD FAVOR A TRACK TOO FAR TO THE EAST/OUT TO SEA TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TO CENTRAL PA. I was understanding that the NAM had major differences with the GFS and was further west resulting in a decent hit for West/Central PA and East Ohio. Is this not the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I thought this was the case too regarding the NAM. However, I was reading the NWS State College PA discussion, and they mention about the NAM extrpolated would not bring significant snow to central PA. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE NAM/SREF MEAN BEYOND F84 WOULD FAVOR A TRACK TOO FAR TO THE EAST/OUT TO SEA TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TO CENTRAL PA. I was understanding that the NAM had major differences with the GFS and was further west resulting in a decent hit for West/Central PA and East Ohio. Is this not the case? See i don't understand why they would say this, the NAM to me looks like it goes negative tilt around atlanta GA and would track up the coastal plain. I guess we will find out. Just from personal experiences the Canadian has done a stand up job lately with the last couple of storms and hasn't waivered thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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