Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm probably going to be posting in here for a little bit over this next threat. My family still lives near SEG, so I'll be forecasting for them, too. Hope y'all don't mind Hey, please keep posting here! I've really enjoyed reading your insights this winter over in the Philly thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 light snow right now in millersville...hopefully some of those bands in Harrisburg can make it here. my brother who goes to school in altoona said he's had a few whiteout squalls come through as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 2001kx vids ftw. We missed that one but had a heavy one on the way to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 holy hell the 12z gfs is radically different than 6z...faster and much farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 holy hell the 12z gfs is radically different than 6z...faster and much farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 nice squall coming through Camp Hill now. Roads have been salted well enough that it doesn't appear to be sticking so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 shazam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 wow york/lancaster gets buried this run but imo this is probably a bit east as the gfs tends to push noreasters east around this time range...hopefully it shifts west to get everyone else some significant snow. if the euro holds from it's 00z run(relatively), i think that it's safe to say the gfs solution is too far east just due to the fact that it was such a radical shift from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 wow york/lancaster gets buried this run but imo this is probably a bit east as the gfs tends to push noreasters east around this time range...hopefully it shifts west to get everyone else some significant snow. if the euro holds from it's 00z run(relatively), i think that it's safe to say the gfs solution is too far east just due to the fact that it was such a radical shift from 6z. tell you the truth and this means little, but my first thought was wow, how classic. This is the time when the GFS shifts the big one east and corrects later. See about that, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 question is, that all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 question is, that all snow? Except right along the coast, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 question is, that all snow? for central PA, yeah it's not even close to changing over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Except right along the coast, yes wow. And our temps on Monday are going to struggle to get out of the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Except right along the coast, yes Is this what you were expecting, this GFS run? Not as wound up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Except right along the coast, yes I don't like that depiction on the GFS. Well, as depicted now, I do, but isn't that more of a Miller B look to it? And if so, we haven't done so well with them this year... I'm thinking it's a Miller B going by how much QPF has been shaved off to our south. Last night Richmond was getting arks ready, now they are barely at .25". If this ends up being a Miller B, you can't help but think this will end up much better in New England than around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 And there is quite the sharp cutoff to the precipitation. I would rather see a storm like the GFS this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 And there is quite the sharp cutoff to the precipitation. I would rather see a storm like the GFS this morning. see with that though, you may have to worry about mixing/changeover...it's pick your poison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 And there is quite the sharp cutoff to the precipitation. I would rather see a storm like the GFS this morning. That's kind of what I was referring to...if this in fact is a Miller B, there are going to be a lot of people that get shafted in this set up. Look, last year just about every storm depicted on models 5 days out were burying the south. We needed a north trend to get us good snows, and at least here in southern PA, we got it just about every time. This year, the track as modeled 4-5 days out has been much further north where we don't want a north trend, but it's been happening anyway. I loved the runs from the GFS and Euro last night, but on this run of the GFS, I feel very uneasy. That cutoff isn't very far south of us as it stands now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 see with that though, you may have to worry about mixing/changeover...it's pick your poison I would certainly take my chances if I were in that position...of course the 6z was all snow anyway for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Too bad this is 120 hours away and not 12... http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=CCX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snow, no snow, a little snow, a lot of snow, no snow??? What's it gonna end up doing? Wow someone is getting crushed there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I see the switch for the I95 snow magnet was switched on for the current run of the GFS. In the upper levels thats a pretty stiff step away from a HECS setup this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Its been a really squally day so far today here, and also in Altoona as well. The overnight storm total snowfall at my house ended up being the 3.4 i reported last night.. and again at 6 in the morning (CTP didn't have it in the PNS for some reason). At any rate the squalls that came through this morning probably put down another inch or so, though with the wind today its hard to measure. Temps and wind chills are fairly brutal as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I don't see this becoming an I-95 storm. I still think this has a better chance of cutting too far to the west and giving us a wintry mix (what the UKMET is showing) than it does going out to sea. With the ridge axis out west sitting over Seattle by Tuesday/Wednesday, I would be very surprised if it just ejects out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Is this what you were expecting, this GFS run? Not as wound up? I was expecting it to go farther east than where it was at overnight, but looking at the ensemble spread, it probably went too far. It's now on the eastern side of the GEFS member spread. I really haven't changed much from where I was at this morning... pending the Euro run in 30 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I was expecting it to go farther east than where it was at overnight, but looking at the ensemble spread, it probably went too far. It's now on the eastern side of the GEFS member spread. I really haven't changed much from where I was at this morning... pending the Euro run in 30 min. Based on the minor freakout in Philly/NY thread and the play-by-play, looks good for up this-a-way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Good afternoon everyone. Just woke up. Guess that's what I get for not sleeping the night before. lol. Temperatures are down right chilly right now my low was 23 at 11AM and I am still at 23. Windchills make it around 5. It going to be a coooolldddd night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sounds like a big run for the area north of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOL, the Euro absolutely crushes Central PA. 2+" QPF. This actually is the solution I like the best, which probably means it has no chance of verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sounds like a big run for the area north of 80. The play by play is confusing....very heavy snow west of I95 but they don't say where......I think your area looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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