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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji
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I love when you talk dirty to me, what do you think the odds are of this Nam run coming close to actually verifying?.

The likelihood the general synoptic setup and placement of the upper level features is relatively high. The exact placement of the deformation band is tricky because if the upper PV max came in a tad weaker and/or stronger, the placement of the deformation band can change a lot even if the upper low takes the exact same track. These large CCB/deformation bands in tight, compact lows are very tricky for the models to simulate since they tend to have sharp cutoffs--so any tiny displacement can result in huge forecast differences. Snow probability is creeping up past the "likely" probability of 60% or higher, the exact NAM verbatim is still in the 40% or so category but going up fast since it is by no means a total outlier.

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that's because they're hillbillies!

Going by the NAM runs of 18z and 0z, it sure looks like the precip gets here much faster than originally forecast. I guess if the GFS and EC stay solid, WSW will be out by morning.

By the way Mitch, I'll address that comment after we're out of storm mode.

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The likelihood the general synoptic setup and placement of the upper level features is relatively high. The exact placement of the deformation band is tricky because if the upper PV max came in a tad weaker and/or stronger, the placement of the deformation band can change a lot even if the upper low takes the exact same track. These large CCB/deformation bands in tight, compact lows are very tricky for the models to simulate since they tend to have sharp cutoffs--so any tiny displacement can result in huge forecast differences. Snow probability is creeping up past the "likely" probability of 60% or higher, the exact NAM verbatim is still in the 40% or so category but going up fast since it is by no means a total outlier.

Thank you, you are the best with your explanations :thumbsup::snowman: .

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I trust you know I was kidding. :arrowhead:

Of course I do, but I'll still have to come up with a proper retort.

The NWS disco out of LWX isn't exactly gung ho on this thing yet. I don't blame them, the way it's gone so far. Seems if the GFS and EC bring home the goods, they will have to do a quick about face in that regard.

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Of course I do, but I'll still have to come up with a proper retort.

The NWS disco out of LWX isn't exactly gung ho on this thing yet. I don't blame them, the way it's gone so far. Seems if the GFS and EC bring home the goods, they will have to do a quick about face in that regard.

Shouldn't that be good news?

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Ellinwood forecasted thunder snow the other day! AMAZING. Gutsy call. :thumbsup:

with the 500 track the models have been spitting out it's never been out of the realm. if this works out hopefully people realize how hard it was to do what we did.

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The RGEM is a nice hit, even down to DC.

RGEM/NAM is pretty deadly when they are together. I remember they were the first to rip our hearts during the 12/26 event

Good news. You guys bring this thing home. Too tired, and need sleep. We go to bed early back here in the sticks. :P It's in good hands with y'all.

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