yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 1012 L in GOM at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 She's crawling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Temps crash at 90HR but looks offshore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It ticked W through 90 but I don't know if any of that is snow--can't tell unless I see soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It ticked W through 90 but I don't know if any of that is snow--can't tell unless I see soundings. 850s seem well SE of 12Z. Issue now is that it might miss with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 OTS but came west from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would rather have a west track with rain than east with nothing. We need some precip. 20/20 insight, but snow is much preferred, as runoff would lose most qp on frozen ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It totally misses the MA. Not a flake, drop, or ice pellet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It totally misses the MA. Not a flake, drop, or ice pellet. Uh, Richmond gets some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How long of an event are we looking at here? I know earlier it was a very long event. Well, it began on January 18th at 6:56 AM. So, we've already endured nearly 60 hours from a storm that hasn't even dropped a sprinkle.......tee hee.... But seriously, someone had said earlier that the "main event" may be one of long duration (36 hrs) but I am willing to bet that if it happens it won't last more than 24 hrs (just a guess based upon experience from observations of similar situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS EURO NAM= pretty good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Pretty much misses everyone. Good ol' GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS EURO NAM= pretty good agreement. GFS is well east of either of the other two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12 Z didn't give much precip either and folks were encouraged. So this is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well, it began on January 18th at 6:56 AM. So, we've already endured nearly 60 hours from a storm that hasn't even dropped a sprinkle.......tee hee.... But seriously, someone had said earlier that the "main event" may be one of long duration (36 hrs) but I am willing to bet that if it happens it won't last more than 24 hrs (just a guess based upon experience from observations of similar situations. As far as concerns for this storm that's like number 1,742 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well nobody likes saying it but this will be another needle thread event as everything would need to happen perfectly for snow as opposed to rain alone. As modeled by the GFS--this storm remains generally progressive and compact--and since it is along the coast and given the height field configuration--the greatest mid level/low level height falls are too far E. The deformation band that develops would be injecting warm, moist marine air and since the height falls are ehad of the wave--that is bad news. Dynamic snows don't look like a threat like they may have been two days ago when the models were slower and stronger with the southern PV with heights crashing through a pretty vertical layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well I guess the NAM/GFS/EURO are converging on a close call for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For everyone out there--the Pacific jet pattern is getting close to "transitoire" in this image. Ok not really--but the flow pattern out there is becoming close to higher order turbulent/non-laminar flow in the westerly pattern. Note the similarities. What are the implications of this. More Shortwaves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 A theoretical best solution would be a CMC like bomb with a large PV max and height falls more stacked--except ticked farther E and not so far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 snort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 When is the N stream energy going to be sampled in the models? Tomorrow? All of the phasing events this year had wide swings in the models until the timing and location of the phase was pretty much figured out. LWX mentioned that the N stream disturbance was still in the Gulf of AK when they wrote the AFD. I would be a real kick in the teeth if the system is a whiff to the SE. We need some precip regardless of type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think it is amusing how many solutions we have seen. 24 hours ago the GFS had a MIller B MECS and the other models had a warm inland low. Now we are talking about an OTS miss off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What are the implications of this. More Shortwaves? Every one of those perturbations will grow unstably and amplify in a non-linear fashion--and the exact timing and amplitude and even perhaps how many is up in the air. The eventual track, strength and timing will be all over the place as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How far west was the .5" line on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just my two cents before I head off to work to finish up another 80 hour week. This puppy will not be heading out to sea as shown on the GFS! I'll be checking back in later tonight to watch it make the turn on the 00Z. Enjoy fellow weather junkies! Off to work SEE YA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It ticked W through 90 but I don't know if any of that is snow--can't tell unless I see soundings. So...BI...are you buying this extreme western flank cut-off? What is the explanation for the mechanism behind this? There is no goliath HIGH to suppress moisture convergence at the mid-levels. What is snuffing the juice on the west side of this otherwise respectable-looking storm? What is going on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think it is amusing how many solutions we have seen. 24 hours ago the GFS had a MIller B MECS and the other models had a warm inland low. Now we are talking about an OTS miss off the SE coast. Yep, and tomorrows 0Z and 12Z runs are pretty much going to end the roller coaster. Then we'll all be freaking out over the little details. SLP a few miles this way......850's a few miles that way..... The hotline is going to be busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 snort While I see your joke about the snow-hole, this is not really a jumper. The low is juiced in the GOM. It just misses, is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 While I see your joke about the snow-hole, this is not really a jumper. The low is juiced in the GOM. It just misses, is all. jumper or not, doesn't seem to matter this year assuming this is close to the final solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 snort needless to say, that is more than coincidental to just this storm folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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