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Next weeks Storm Threat and DT's Jan 21-22 Facebook threat


Ji

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Ggem is very wet and barely cold enough for dc. Gfs ensembles for the most part dont agree with the OP

The GFS ensembles are all over the place. With a good 6 or so driving a huge cutter into the lakes...

4 or so showing a south east storm that barely gets to DC... And a few others show some sort of Miller B type Scenario.

Edit.. well not quite 4.. :P.. only 1 shows that..

f168.gif

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My expectations for the next event are probably a little bit of the kitchen sink for a bit then gradually shifting to a cold rain....that would be climo for a nina here. And for Ellinwood out here in Leesburg this type of system would be more frozen here than in DC. I remember a storm back in 03 I think where Leesburg got 7" of snow and DC was all rain.....ahhhh the good ole days.

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Euro Ensembles. Deep trough which spawns a weak low running up the seaboard. Temps are to warm for the mid atlantic though.

The temps are close though. It's always hard to tell when all you can see is a 24 hour jump, but before and after have 850's that are cold enough and 168 has them in the 0 to +2 range (at least for my part of NoVa). Anybody else have a take on what the eu ens are showing? Perhaps someone with access to other frames?

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The temps are close though. It's always hard to tell when all you can see is a 24 hour jump, but before and after have 850's that are cold enough and 168 has them in the 0 to +2 range (at least for my part of NoVa). Anybody else have a take on what the eu ens are showing? Perhaps someone with access to other frames?

Yep, hate that 24 hour jump. Without a high to the north probably wouldn't see any CAD so I think the best we could hope with what it's showing is for a quick shot of snow changing over to cold rain. So far out though and with the models all over the place chances are good we don't see anything resembling this when all is said and done.

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Checking over the 00Z GFS ensemble and was surprised to see how closely it matches the Euro ensemble @ 168.

The off run of the o6 Z GFS ensemble has a very similar look as well.

Edit***

After looking over the individual members of the GFS I think it was just shear chance the similarities. The members are all over the board.

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extrem cold is just hanging at the border :(

seems like we've got about 10-14 days to get it if we want near 0 or something (which wont happen here anyway likely) .. we're about to climb out of the coldest part of the yr. :)

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i dont think extreme cold is coming.. just more of this general cold crap

Some of those colors on the maps on the main forum look pretty extreme around here but it has been like that for over a month now and it never comes. I knew way back this was going to end up with highs in the low 30's as the extreme part. Too bad we can't get any moisture though.

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Some of those colors on the maps on the main forum look pretty extreme around here but it has been like that for over a month now and it never comes. I knew way back this was going to end up with highs in the low 30's as the extreme part. Too bad we can't get any moisture though.

hard to argue against what we've already seen.. lots of cold but lots of stale cold. i guess we'll see.. there is still potential i guess but as you note keeps getting pushed back.

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