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Next weeks Storm Threat and DT's Jan 21-22 Facebook threat


Ji

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GFS and Euro will flip flop back and forth from rain to ice to blizzard back to rain over the next 10 days. I'm just thankful the models are generous enough to give us something to track after each bust this year, lol. Seems like tracking is all the fun we'll have this year.

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GFS and Euro will flip flop back and forth from rain to ice to blizzard back to rain over the next 10 days. I'm just thankful the models are generous enough to give us something to track after each bust this year, lol. Seems like tracking is all the fun we'll have this year.

Sad to say that as soon as today's threat sort of fell apart the first thing I could think of was "well, at least there's a day 7 threat to track again..." arrowheadsmiley.png:axe:

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Not wanting to interrupt the wishcasting about something 8-10 days away (it'll be 45 degrees and raining before turning to freezing rain at the end if you want my humble opinion), but here comes another major midatlantic dusting Saturday night...

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p24_108l.gif

Of course, given current patterns, anything coming from the south gets squashed and anything coming from the north gets pulled up, so it probably won't be anything. But I'd put, oh, 50 cents, on this giving us DC as much as it gets tonight - i.e. T-1".

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The Euro is probably too warm in the midrange. If you recall how this current event was progged it was originally pretty warm on the Euro, then it flipped and surpressed it down south.

The other point is I'm willing to try something different and roll the dice to be "on the edge". Clearly the current pattern is not working for snow threats here.

The GFS clipper might not be anything, but it's got to reinforce the cold air to set up the southern system progged at day 6/7.

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I've been anticipating that track since fall. Nina climo. Best shot we have to get heavy precip this season. Have been hoping to benefit from my valley location NW, especially in deep mid-winter. Hope its more than model fantasy.

The DC area hasn't seen a crippling ice storm in some time. I believe since the late 90s. We've had a few smaller type ones and a few ones a little E of the area (I recall one in PG and surrounding areas). I remember a late 90s ice storm here when we were without power for like a week and a bit.

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